Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H FY26 results resilient: LNG and FX offset metals softness; FY26 NI raised 6% to ¥820 bn, ROE ~13%.</li>
<li>Valuation gap to Itochu closed; Mitsui now trades ~1.4× P/B with superior copper and LNG leverage.</li>
<li>Sustained buybacks (~5% p.a.) and ≥10% Berkshire anchor ensure 6–9% TSR CAGR, with 10%+ if copper &gt;US$10k/t.</li>
</ul>


1H FY26 results resilient: LNG and FX offset metals softness; FY26 NI raised 6% to ¥820 bn, ROE ~13%.
Valuation gap to Itochu closed; Mitsui now trades ~1.4× P/B with superior copper and LNG leverage.
Sustained buybacks (~5% p.a.) and ≥10% Berkshire anchor ensure 6–9% TSR CAGR, with 10%+ if copper &gt;US$10k/t.


Mitsui & Co. (8031 JP): Bullish View Reinforced — Copper & LNG Re-Rate Now Structural

<ul>
<li>Copper earnings leverage: Equity-method stakes in Collahuasi and Anglo Sur mean every +10% copper move adds ~¥25–30 bn net income (~3% EPS), giving Mitsui underappreciated upside torque.</li>
<li>LNG stability &amp; cash flows: Long-term contracts in Mozambique, Cameron, Qatar, and Sakhalin underpin resilient earnings and support ¥400 bn annual buybacks (~5% equity).</li>
<li>Valuation: P/B discount vs Itochu has closed (~1.1× each), but Berkshire’s ≥10% stake enforces capital discipline; TSR outlook is 6–9% CAGR through FY28, with copper strength providing double-digit upside.</li>
</ul>


Copper earnings leverage: Equity-method stakes in Collahuasi and Anglo Sur mean every +10% copper move adds ~¥25–30 bn net income (~3% EPS), giving Mitsui underappreciated upside torque.
LNG stability &amp; cash flows: Long-term contracts in Mozambique, Cameron, Qatar, and Sakhalin underpin resilient earnings and support ¥400 bn annual buybacks (~5% equity).
Valuation: P/B discount vs Itochu has closed (~1.1× each), but Berkshire’s ≥10% stake enforces capital discipline; TSR outlook is 6–9% CAGR through FY28, with copper strength providing double-digit upside.


Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

<ul>
<li>Mitsui &amp; Co. has delivered robust earnings and cash flows, fueled by commodity tailwinds and disciplined capital returns over the last 5 years.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, the company plans to rebalance its portfolio through increased exposure to LNG and energy transition assets </li>
<li>However, muted near-term growth and persistently low ROCE—driven by scattered, low-control holdings—suggest limited upside until newer investments begin contributing meaningfully to the bottom line.</li>
</ul>


Mitsui &amp; Co. has delivered robust earnings and cash flows, fueled by commodity tailwinds and disciplined capital returns over the last 5 years.
Looking ahead, the company plans to rebalance its portfolio through increased exposure to LNG and energy transition assets 
However, muted near-term growth and persistently low ROCE—driven by scattered, low-control holdings—suggest limited upside until newer investments begin contributing meaningfully to the bottom line.


Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Strong Cash Flows, Weak Growth Despite Portfolio Shift

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul><li>Huge deal with Mitsui purchasing a 40% stake in Roads Ridge for billions of dollars</li><li>Decades-long negotiation process with owners of the asset culminating in the sale</li><li>Roads Ridge is a massive iron ore deposit with potential for long-term production, standing out for its high quality iron content and low phosphorus levels in comparison to other mines in the region</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Huge deal with Mitsui purchasing a 40% stake in Roads Ridge for billions of dollarsDecades-long negotiation process with owners of the asset culminating in the saleRoads Ridge is a massive iron ore deposit with potential for long-term production, standing out for its high quality iron content and low phosphorus levels in comparison to other mines in the regionThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>German government approves financing for TSMC's fab in Dresden, boosting semiconductor production in Europe.</li><li>Kaynes Semi secures anchor customer in power electronics, bolstering its position in the market.</li><li>Suchi Semicon opens Gujarat's first OSAT facility; Google appoints new India head to advance AI technology.</li></ul>

German government approves financing for TSMC's fab in Dresden, boosting semiconductor production in Europe.Kaynes Semi secures anchor customer in power electronics, bolstering its position in the market.Suchi Semicon opens Gujarat's first OSAT facility; Google appoints new India head to advance AI technology.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Dec-2024): German gov funds TSMC's Dresden fab.

Japan

MITSUI & CO., LTD. is a general trading company.  The Company has operating groups including Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Foods, Energy, Textiles, and General Merchandise.  Mitsui also operates real estate and overseas development projects.

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Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP)

Mitsui & Co. (8031 JP): Bullish View Reinforced — Copper & LNG Re-Rate Now Structural

Mitsui's 1H FY26 results show resilience with raised FY26 net income, closing valuation gap to Itochu and offering strong potential for TSR CAGR.

Rahul Jain

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Rahul Jain

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Strong Cash Flows, Weak Growth Despite Portfolio Shift

Mitsui & Co. has strong earnings from commodities, but limited growth due to scattered holdings and low ROCE; plans to focus on LNG and energy...

Rahul Jain

Unpacking a $20b undeveloped mine deal

Mitsui acquires a 40% stake in Roads Ridge, a large-scale undeveloped iron ore deposit in Western Australia, for US $13 billion, with plans for...

Money of Mine

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Dec-2024): German gov funds TSMC's Dresden fab.

German gov backs TSMC's fab in Dresden, Kaynes Semi gains anchor customer, Suchi Semicon opens OSAT facility in Gujarat, Google appoints new head...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mitsui & Co. (8031 JP): Bullish View Reinforced — Copper & LNG Re-Rate Now Structural

​Mitsui's 1H FY26 results show resilience with raised FY26 net income, closing valuation gap to Itochu and offering strong potential for TSR CAGR.

Rahul Jain

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

​Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Rahul Jain

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Strong Cash Flows, Weak Growth Despite Portfolio Shift

​Mitsui & Co. has strong earnings from commodities, but limited growth due to scattered holdings and low ROCE; plans to focus on LNG and energy...

Rahul Jain

Unpacking a $20b undeveloped mine deal

Mitsui acquires a 40% stake in Roads Ridge, a large-scale undeveloped iron ore deposit in Western Australia, for US $13 billion, with plans for...

Money of Mine

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Dec-2024): German gov funds TSMC's Dresden fab.

German gov backs TSMC's fab in Dresden, Kaynes Semi gains anchor customer, Suchi Semicon opens OSAT facility in Gujarat, Google appoints new head...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Mitsui's 1H FY26 results show resilience with raised FY26 net income, closing valuation gap to Itochu and offering strong potential for TSR CAGR.

Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Mitsui & Co. has strong earnings from commodities, but limited growth due to scattered holdings and low ROCE; plans to focus on LNG and energy...