Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Nippon Steel Trading Corporation / Event-Driven

Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> announced they would launch <strong><a href="https://www.nipponsteel.com/common/secure/en/news/20230310_100.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the TOB</a></strong> to take over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-trading-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13087:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)</a> starting Monday.</li>
<li>I wrote about the deal and its parameters in December 2022 in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nippon-steel-mitsui-co-to-buy-out-nippon-steel-trading-9810-at-87-premium" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:86494" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel &amp; Mitsui &amp; Co to Buy Out Nippon Steel Trading (9810) At 87% Premium</a>. </li>
<li>This gets done easily I expect. Boring, but decent very short-term carry on the bid side.</li>
</ul>


Today, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) announced they would launch the TOB to take over Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP) starting Monday.
I wrote about the deal and its parameters in December 2022 in Nippon Steel &amp; Mitsui &amp; Co to Buy Out Nippon Steel Trading (9810) At 87% Premium. 
This gets done easily I expect. Boring, but decent very short-term carry on the bid side.


Nippon Steel/Mitsui TOB for Nippon Steel Trading (9810) Starts

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> reported Q3 earnings Friday afternoon during the market session. Like at Q2, they upped their fiscal-year forecast to well above Street consensus.</li>
<li>Also like Q2, they announced a buyback - this one an extension in time, shares, and money on the one already in place, raising the total Core CashFlow Payout Ratio.</li>
<li>This creates interesting index flows over the next several months, and other trading cos have live buybacks too.</li>
</ul>



Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) reported Q3 earnings Friday afternoon during the market session. Like at Q2, they upped their fiscal-year forecast to well above Street consensus.
Also like Q2, they announced a buyback - this one an extension in time, shares, and money on the one already in place, raising the total Core CashFlow Payout Ratio.
This creates interesting index flows over the next several months, and other trading cos have live buybacks too.


Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 - Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>’s offers from Hancock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).</li>
<li>A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.</li>
</ul>



Warrego Energy (WGO AU)’s offers from Hancock and Strike Energy (STX AU) close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).
A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.


<ul>
<li>Mitsui&amp;Co has been in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/relia-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16219:1" rel="noopener">Relia Inc (4708 JP)</a> for a long time. As part of investing in BPO/RPA/AI services, they are buying out Relia, merging it with a KDDI sub.</li>
<li>They are buying it at an all-time high, and a 50% premium. Looks nice. But it's not nice enough.</li>
<li>This is one of those times when I can reiterate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-needs-more-cowbell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41191" rel="noopener">Japan Needs More Cowbell</a>. </li>
</ul>


Mitsui&amp;Co has been in Relia Inc (4708 JP) for a long time. As part of investing in BPO/RPA/AI services, they are buying out Relia, merging it with a KDDI sub.
They are buying it at an all-time high, and a 50% premium. Looks nice. But it's not nice enough.
This is one of those times when I can reiterate, Japan Needs More Cowbell. 


Mitsui & Co To Buy Out Relia (4708) - Moshi Moshi Is TOO CHEAP

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a>'s off-market takeover offer at 1 MIN share for every 1,367 NWE shares closes on 6 February. The target's statement will be despatched by early to mid-January.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a> Board recommends shareholders take no action. The timing is opportunistic and motivated by recent Perth Basin consolidation activity. </li>
<li>Hancock’s latest bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to reject the offer.</li>
</ul>



Mineral Resources (MIN AU)'s off-market takeover offer at 1 MIN share for every 1,367 NWE shares closes on 6 February. The target's statement will be despatched by early to mid-January.
The Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU) Board recommends shareholders take no action. The timing is opportunistic and motivated by recent Perth Basin consolidation activity. 
Hancock’s latest bid for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to reject the offer.


Norwest Energy (NWE AU): Valuation Read Across from Warrego’s Takeover Battle

Japan

MITSUI & CO., LTD. is a general trading company.  The Company has operating groups including Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Foods, Energy, Textiles, and General Merchandise.  Mitsui also operates real estate and overseas development projects.

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Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP)

Nippon Steel/Mitsui TOB for Nippon Steel Trading (9810) Starts

Nippon Steel and Mitsui & Co today launched a TOB for Nippon Steel Trading. Near zero change to the docs (only tiny changes). No price change...

Travis Lundy

Mitsui & Co (8031) Q3 - Big Profit, New Bigger Buyback, Some Index Selling; and Competition

Mitsui had a great Q3, forecasting an even better Q4. It announced a new Buyback to pay out 100% of incremental Net Profit, 142% of incremental...

Travis Lundy

Warrego (WGO AU): End-Game Scenarios

Unlikely to see another bump as stretched valuations and deal fatigue sets in. Trading through Hancock's terms, the slim 1.3% spread to Strike’s...

Arun George

Mitsui & Co To Buy Out Relia (4708) - Moshi Moshi Is TOO CHEAP

Mitsui is buying out Relia (4708) formerly known as Moshi Moshi Hotline. It is an all-time high and big premium, but it is the wrong price. But...

Travis Lundy

Norwest Energy (NWE AU): Valuation Read Across from Warrego’s Takeover Battle

MinRes' offer is open. Hancock’s latest bid for Warrego suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to...

Arun George

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