Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The number of new mall developments in 2024 in Japan held steady but will collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand and a lack of labour.</li>
<li>At the same time, for existing malls, sales were robust through 2023 and 2024 and look set to continue at higher levels despite consumer restraint.</li>
<li>Both locals and tourists alike use malls for leisure, entertainment and shopping and, as the number of malls falls, and upgrades continue, efficiency is improving.</li>
</ul>


The number of new mall developments in 2024 in Japan held steady but will collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand and a lack of labour.
At the same time, for existing malls, sales were robust through 2023 and 2024 and look set to continue at higher levels despite consumer restraint.
Both locals and tourists alike use malls for leisure, entertainment and shopping and, as the number of malls falls, and upgrades continue, efficiency is improving.


Japan Shopping Mall Sector in 2025: Robust Sales, Fewer Doors

<ul>
<li>Shopping malls have finally recovered to pre-Covid sales levels now that consumers are travelling freely (at least inside Japan) and spending more on discretionary items in some segments.</li>
<li>But development of new malls is slow due to falling demand from tenants, saturation in the best locations, higher costs and the labour shortage.  </li>
<li>The outlook remains muted, with little prospect of a major change in investment schedules although some larger developments are in the pipeline.</li>
</ul>


Shopping malls have finally recovered to pre-Covid sales levels now that consumers are travelling freely (at least inside Japan) and spending more on discretionary items in some segments.
But development of new malls is slow due to falling demand from tenants, saturation in the best locations, higher costs and the labour shortage.  
The outlook remains muted, with little prospect of a major change in investment schedules although some larger developments are in the pipeline.


Japan's Malls up 2.7% but New Builds Down

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.</li>
<li>Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.</li>
<li>Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.</li>
</ul>


Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.
Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.
Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

<ul>
<li>Good retailer numbers and outlooks by Target and TJX setting a positive tone for the likes of Mercari on the read for consumer spending.</li>
<li>Toll Bros numbers from the day before lifting US Homebuilders should see the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry</a> rebound off yesterdays weak price action.</li>
<li>Japanese R/E names look increasingly vulnerable to downside ahead of Ueda's speech tomorrow which should point to a BoJ trajectory for future rate hikes.</li>
</ul>


Good retailer numbers and outlooks by Target and TJX setting a positive tone for the likes of Mercari on the read for consumer spending.
Toll Bros numbers from the day before lifting US Homebuilders should see the likes of Sumitomo Forestry rebound off yesterdays weak price action.
Japanese R/E names look increasingly vulnerable to downside ahead of Ueda's speech tomorrow which should point to a BoJ trajectory for future rate hikes.


Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu

<ul>
<li>Shopping malls are now trading at pre-pandemic levels again and developers and tenants alike are much more upbeat and optimistic about the future. </li>
<li>The pandemic, alongside competition from e-commerce, has left its mark but this has mostly been a good thing, forcing more proactive management of malls.</li>
<li>Profitability remains a concern but rents are up for some and more efficiencies are being introduced through digitisation.</li>
</ul>


Shopping malls are now trading at pre-pandemic levels again and developers and tenants alike are much more upbeat and optimistic about the future. 
The pandemic, alongside competition from e-commerce, has left its mark but this has mostly been a good thing, forcing more proactive management of malls.
Profitability remains a concern but rents are up for some and more efficiencies are being introduced through digitisation.


Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

Japan

Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. provides overall real estate services such as leasing, subdivision, construction, sales, and maintenance of office buildings and residential houses.  The Company also manufactures building materials, operates commercial facilities including hotels and golf places, and provides financial services such as securitization of real estate properties.

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Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)

Japan Shopping Mall Sector in 2025: Robust Sales, Fewer Doors

New mall developments in Japan to collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand, and lack of labor, while existing malls see robust sales and...

Michael Causton

Japan's Malls up 2.7% but New Builds Down

Shopping malls in Japan have rebounded to pre-Covid sales levels but new development is hindered by falling demand, location saturation, high...

Michael Causton

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu

Positive retail numbers from Target and TJX bode well for consumer spending, while Toll Bros' strong performance lifts Homebuilders. Japanese R/E...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Shopping Mall Sector in 2025: Robust Sales, Fewer Doors

​New mall developments in Japan to collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand, and lack of labor, while existing malls see robust sales and...

Michael Causton

Japan's Malls up 2.7% but New Builds Down

​Shopping malls in Japan have rebounded to pre-Covid sales levels but new development is hindered by falling demand, location saturation, high...

Michael Causton

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

​Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu

​Positive retail numbers from Target and TJX bode well for consumer spending, while Toll Bros' strong performance lifts Homebuilders. Japanese R/E...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

​Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...

Michael Causton

New mall developments in Japan to collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand, and lack of labor, while existing malls see robust sales and...

Shopping malls in Japan have rebounded to pre-Covid sales levels but new development is hindered by falling demand, location saturation, high...

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Positive retail numbers from Target and TJX bode well for consumer spending, while Toll Bros' strong performance lifts Homebuilders. Japanese R/E...

Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...