Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
Context: A recent market pullback alongside implied volatility at the 95th–98th percentile has created a fertile environment for cross-sectional analysis across TOPIX and Nikkei 225 constituents.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: A quantitative screen reveals dispersion in both returns and volatility, with distinct clusters supporting different option structures—from premium-selling strategies to asymmetric upside participation.</li>
<li>
 Why read: This note provides a practical framework and illustrative setups (put underwriting, risk reversals) to help investors translate volatility signals into tailored option strategies.</li>
</ul>



Context: A recent market pullback alongside implied volatility at the 95th–98th percentile has created a fertile environment for cross-sectional analysis across TOPIX and Nikkei 225 constituents.

 Highlights: A quantitative screen reveals dispersion in both returns and volatility, with distinct clusters supporting different option structures—from premium-selling strategies to asymmetric upside participation.

 Why read: This note provides a practical framework and illustrative setups (put underwriting, risk reversals) to help investors translate volatility signals into tailored option strategies.


Japan Equities: Volatility Spike and Dispersion Create Options Opportunities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In October 2023 and then in early 2024, activist Palliser Capital demanded that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> sell down its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> to sub-15%.</li>
<li>Keisei in March sold 1% of OLC but in doing so, rejected the concept of removing equity affiliate status. They could go to a level just &gt;15%, or just &gt;20%. </li>
<li>Today, OLC announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares - the total for the 2yrs to Mar-26 <a href="https://www.olc.co.jp/en/news/news_olc/auto_20240426578292/pdfFile.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (p19) in April. Keisei will sell and will stay above 20%. </li>
</ul>


In October 2023 and then in early 2024, activist Palliser Capital demanded that Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP) to sub-15%.
Keisei in March sold 1% of OLC but in doing so, rejected the concept of removing equity affiliate status. They could go to a level just &gt;15%, or just &gt;20%. 
Today, OLC announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of 18mm shares - the total for the 2yrs to Mar-26 announced (p19) in April. Keisei will sell and will stay above 20%. 


Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) - It's In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

<ul>
<li>In mid-January 2024, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.</li>
<li>The TSE list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We are weeks ahead of the TSE and we have all the links (and the shame list).</li>
<li>We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links to every document, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January 2024, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
The TSE list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We are weeks ahead of the TSE and we have all the links (and the shame list).
We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links to every document, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.


Updated Tool (31May24) & "Diff File Generator" For TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price"

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Event-Driven

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a>’s cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding.
MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

Japan

Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. provides overall real estate services such as leasing, subdivision, construction, sales, and maintenance of office buildings and residential houses.  The Company also manufactures building materials, operates commercial facilities including hotels and golf places, and provides financial services such as securitization of real estate properties.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)

Japan Equities: Volatility Spike and Dispersion Create Options Opportunities

This note presents a cross-sectional approach to identifying options strategies in Japanese equities, set against a backdrop of market pullback and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Oriental Land ToSTNeT-3 Buyback From Keisei (9009) - It's In the Plan And Looks Better Than It Is

Oriental Land today announced that its planned FY24-25 2yr buyback of 18mm shares will happen tomorrow in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. 1%. It keeps Keisei...

Travis Lundy

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Updated Tool (31May24) & "Diff File Generator" For TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price"

The updated "TSE File" where we provide links to the Corporate Governance Report and "Action to Implement Management Awareness of Capital Cost and...

Travis Lundy

MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at MUFG (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding. MUFG had a stake of over US$100m...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)