Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum remains very weak, and spot rates are already below 2024 lows</li>
<li>Multiple deep-sea carriers have recently guided to a collapse in core earnings in 2025</li>
<li>USTR / MARAD proposed rule changes could add to US tariff chaos &amp; raise carriers' costs</li>
</ul>


Price momentum remains very weak, and spot rates are already below 2024 lows
Multiple deep-sea carriers have recently guided to a collapse in core earnings in 2025
USTR / MARAD proposed rule changes could add to US tariff chaos &amp; raise carriers' costs


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Down | Chorus of Weak Guidance | USTR-MARAD (March 2025)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The USTR issued a Section 301 report in January 2025. The report suggests China has tried to achieve dominance in global shipping, to the detriment of US commerce.</li>
<li>The report is flawed, in data (it somehow manages to make up data which is otherwise available from MARAD), analytics, and conclusions, but the Trump administration has run with it.</li>
<li>In February, the USTR announced "Proposed Actions" - fees for Chinese liners and international liners with Chinese ships, and restrictions on future exports. US users lose. And there are loopholes.</li>
</ul>


The USTR issued a Section 301 report in January 2025. The report suggests China has tried to achieve dominance in global shipping, to the detriment of US commerce.
The report is flawed, in data (it somehow manages to make up data which is otherwise available from MARAD), analytics, and conclusions, but the Trump administration has run with it.
In February, the USTR announced "Proposed Actions" - fees for Chinese liners and international liners with Chinese ships, and restrictions on future exports. US users lose. And there are loopholes.


The USTR's New "Proposed Actions" For Section 301 Investigation on China's Maritime/Shipping Sectors

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"Good" included Q4 earnings &gt; consensus, cash dividend, and US$2 bn buyback program</li>
<li>"Bad" included guidance of underlying EBIT dropping to zero if Red Sea re-opens in H125</li>
<li>Even Maersk's best-case view has FY25 core EBIT falling by -53% Y/Y vs strong FY24</li>
</ul>


"Good" included Q4 earnings &gt; consensus, cash dividend, and US$2 bn buyback program
"Bad" included guidance of underlying EBIT dropping to zero if Red Sea re-opens in H125
Even Maersk's best-case view has FY25 core EBIT falling by -53% Y/Y vs strong FY24


Maersk Q424 Results: A Mix Of "Good" (Q4 Earnings, Dividend, Buyback) & "Bad" (FY25 Guidance)

<ul>
<li>We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025</li>
<li>Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%</li>
<li>We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID</li>
</ul>


We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025
Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%
We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID


Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

<ul>
<li>In May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> announced better revenue, mixed OP, and in-line NP. Then for this year they announced bte Revenue, slightly bte OP, and ever-so-slightly-better NP guidance.</li>
<li>Then they announced a big ¥100bn buyback, discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kline-9107-more-profit-more-shareholder-return-3mo-buyback-inbound" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, doing ¥90.8bn quickly. Since then, ONE-derived dividends have been higher than people expected a year ago.  More cash. More shareholder returns</li>
<li>Now they have raised their capital return guidance for this MTMP, and upped to an additional ¥180bn beyond the existing increased guidance. That starts with ¥90bn of ToSTNeT-3 near-term.</li>
</ul>


In May, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) announced better revenue, mixed OP, and in-line NP. Then for this year they announced bte Revenue, slightly bte OP, and ever-so-slightly-better NP guidance.
Then they announced a big ¥100bn buyback, discussed here, doing ¥90.8bn quickly. Since then, ONE-derived dividends have been higher than people expected a year ago.  More cash. More shareholder returns
Now they have raised their capital return guidance for this MTMP, and upped to an additional ¥180bn beyond the existing increased guidance. That starts with ¥90bn of ToSTNeT-3 near-term.


Kline (9017) - Better Earnings, Another Buyback, Maybe Games, Maybe Market Impact

Japan

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

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Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Down | Chorus of Weak Guidance | USTR-MARAD (March 2025)

Container rates continue to fall, and major carriers are guiding to a collapse in core margins in FY25. Proposed US rules could potentially make...

Tracking Traffic

The USTR's New "Proposed Actions" For Section 301 Investigation on China's Maritime/Shipping Sectors

The USTR recently announced a 301 investigative report on Chinese Shipping/Logistics/Shipbuilding and Proposed Actions. They will hurt US users who...

Travis Lundy

Maersk Q424 Results: A Mix Of "Good" (Q4 Earnings, Dividend, Buyback) & "Bad" (FY25 Guidance)

On February 6 Maersk reported Q424 results that beat expectations. More interesting to us was management's thoroughly downbeat FY25 guidance, where...

Tracking Traffic

Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

If container carrier profitability begins to revert to historical mean levels in 2025, it suggests a dramatic decline in financial performance in...

Tracking Traffic

Kline (9017) - Better Earnings, Another Buyback, Maybe Games, Maybe Market Impact

Last week, Mitsui OSK reported great earnings and revised guidance. And a buyback. Today KLINE did. Mitsui's goes a full year in-market. KLINE's is...

Travis Lundy

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