Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns</li>
<li>The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign</li>
<li>Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns
The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign
Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters


US Banks - Quarterly NCO Rate in 2Q25 -4.7% QoQ, Delinquency Rates -1.9% QoQ

<ul>
<li>The comment by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jpmorgan-chase-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:277:1" rel="noopener">JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM US)</a> about its two bad loans suggesting there will be more, something like 'cockroaches' coming out from nowhere. </li>
<li>The weekly data from H8 filings at the Fed have been showing lower LLR for many weeks, suggesting a better credit environment not worsening - whatever the animal.</li>
<li>The reality is that most banks that have announced in the US are showing lower credit costs, lower NPLs or benign growth in bad loans. </li>
</ul>


The comment by JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM US) about its two bad loans suggesting there will be more, something like 'cockroaches' coming out from nowhere. 
The weekly data from H8 filings at the Fed have been showing lower LLR for many weeks, suggesting a better credit environment not worsening - whatever the animal.
The reality is that most banks that have announced in the US are showing lower credit costs, lower NPLs or benign growth in bad loans. 


US Banks - Cockroaches? Weekly LLR Only 0.32% YoY. Comment Appears to Be In Contrast to Data

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>We recommend selling MUFG19 and cutting losses on SONY80, with returns of –2.7% and –6.6%, respectively, while opening a new position in AMD80, a DR linked to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) listed on the NASDAQ.</li><li>The return of KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio fell 1.66% from the previous day, pressured by weakness in Asian equities amid concerns over rising bad-debt risks among US regional banks.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.</li></ul>

We recommend selling MUFG19 and cutting losses on SONY80, with returns of –2.7% and –6.6%, respectively, while opening a new position in AMD80, a DR linked to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) listed on the NASDAQ.The return of KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio fell 1.66% from the previous day, pressured by weakness in Asian equities amid concerns over rising bad-debt risks among US regional banks.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 20, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>We recommend cutting loss on STEG19 with a return of -7.6%, while opening new positions in GOOG80 and POPMART80.</li><li>The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio rose 1.04% from the previous day, driven by a rebound in global equities amid signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.</li></ul>

We recommend cutting loss on STEG19 with a return of -7.6%, while opening new positions in GOOG80 and POPMART80.The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio rose 1.04% from the previous day, driven by a rebound in global equities amid signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.

KTX Tactical DR Picks - October 16, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, with the resistance at 1,300/1,313 and the support at 1,280/1,268.</li><li>The Economic Cabinet has approved a new tax deduction measure allowing individuals to claim tourism-related expenses of up to Bt20,000 per person (1x deduction for major cities and 1.5x for secondary cities) between October 29 and December 15.</li><li>Foreign investors turned net buyers of Thai equities for the first time in four days, adding further support to the market.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, with the resistance at 1,300/1,313 and the support at 1,280/1,268.The Economic Cabinet has approved a new tax deduction measure allowing individuals to claim tourism-related expenses of up to Bt20,000 per person (1x deduction for major cities and 1.5x for secondary cities) between October 29 and December 15.Foreign investors turned net buyers of Thai equities for the first time in four days, adding further support to the market.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 16, 2025

United States

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

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Morgan Stanley (MS US)

US Banks - Quarterly NCO Rate in 2Q25 -4.7% QoQ, Delinquency Rates -1.9% QoQ

Fed quarterly data on NCO and delinquencies, does not suggest any systemic malaise in credit markets. Will be interesting to see how data changes...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Cockroaches? Weekly LLR Only 0.32% YoY. Comment Appears to Be In Contrast to Data

Comment from JPM seems to be in contrast to US bank data, where there are no major or systemic signs of credit deterioration, rather it is the...

Daniel Tabbush

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 20, 2025 (Eng.)

The return of KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio fell 1.66% from the previous day, pressured by weakness in Asian equities amid concerns over rising...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Tactical DR Picks - October 16, 2025 (Eng.)

The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio rose 1.04% from the previous day, driven by a rebound in global equities amid signs of...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 16, 2025

The Economic Cabinet has approved a new tax deduction measure allowing individuals to claim tourism-related expenses of up to Bt20,000 per person...

Krungthai XSpring

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