Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Enhanced financial data from the Fed shows off balance sheet loan commitments rising strongly now +3.7% YoY in 2Q25 (quarterly data only, just released)</li>
<li>Data suggests that loan growth we see for US banks (in weekly HFD) is not being driven by off B/S moving on B/S, rather it is true underlying demand</li>
<li>Newly release Probability of Default (PD) for credit card loans in the US is very positive, with thew worst bucket of &gt;20% PD falling to just 3.0% of loans</li>
</ul>


Enhanced financial data from the Fed shows off balance sheet loan commitments rising strongly now +3.7% YoY in 2Q25 (quarterly data only, just released)
Data suggests that loan growth we see for US banks (in weekly HFD) is not being driven by off B/S moving on B/S, rather it is true underlying demand
Newly release Probability of Default (PD) for credit card loans in the US is very positive, with thew worst bucket of &gt;20% PD falling to just 3.0% of loans


US Banks - Off B/S Growth +3.7% YoY in New 2Q25 Data, Credit Card PD Improve Dramatically

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>For KTX Tactical DR Picks today, we recommend initiating a position in TOYOTA80, a DR referencing Toyota Motor Corporation listed on the Japanese stock exchange.</li><li>The average return of the underlying securities in the portfolio rose 0.56% from the previous day, supported by global equity markets increase after US PCE data came in line with expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s rate-cutting path.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USDTHB Tracker shows that the baht is on an appreciating trend, posing FX risks for overseas investments, including DRs.</li></ul>

For KTX Tactical DR Picks today, we recommend initiating a position in TOYOTA80, a DR referencing Toyota Motor Corporation listed on the Japanese stock exchange.The average return of the underlying securities in the portfolio rose 0.56% from the previous day, supported by global equity markets increase after US PCE data came in line with expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s rate-cutting path.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USDTHB Tracker shows that the baht is on an appreciating trend, posing FX risks for overseas investments, including DRs.

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - September 30, 2025 (Eng.)

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Global oil majors are slashing jobs and investments as weak demand, OPEC+ supply hikes, and rising costs drive the sharpest industry retrenchment since the 2020 collapse.</li>
<li>U.S. producers face added strain from tariffs, cost inflation, and consolidation, forcing capex cuts, layoffs, and highlighting the slowdown of shale-driven growth that once powered record output.</li>
<li>ExxonMobil emerges strongest among peers, supported by low debt, robust free cash flow, advantaged low-cost assets, and global diversification, giving it unmatched resilience in a prolonged low-price environment.</li>
</ul>


Global oil majors are slashing jobs and investments as weak demand, OPEC+ supply hikes, and rising costs drive the sharpest industry retrenchment since the 2020 collapse.
U.S. producers face added strain from tariffs, cost inflation, and consolidation, forcing capex cuts, layoffs, and highlighting the slowdown of shale-driven growth that once powered record output.
ExxonMobil emerges strongest among peers, supported by low debt, robust free cash flow, advantaged low-cost assets, and global diversification, giving it unmatched resilience in a prolonged low-price environment.


Oil and Gas Giants Shift from Expansion to Discipline Amid Supply Glut and Cost Pressures

<ul>
<li>Overnight CP market in the US reflects the Fed rate cut immediately. Rates on overnight non-financial CP for A2/P2 companies now 4.20% (18 Sept) from 4.45% (17 Sept)</li>
<li>Weekly B/S for US banks has been showing for some time accelerating loan volume, with debt 5-7% less expensive overnight, loan volume should continue to accelerate</li>
<li>Where loans at US banks are only 67% of deposits, a 25bps reduction on both pools (loans, deposits) can be NIM expansionary. There are many moving parts, though. </li>
</ul>


Overnight CP market in the US reflects the Fed rate cut immediately. Rates on overnight non-financial CP for A2/P2 companies now 4.20% (18 Sept) from 4.45% (17 Sept)
Weekly B/S for US banks has been showing for some time accelerating loan volume, with debt 5-7% less expensive overnight, loan volume should continue to accelerate
Where loans at US banks are only 67% of deposits, a 25bps reduction on both pools (loans, deposits) can be NIM expansionary. There are many moving parts, though. 


US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets at US banks show a strong economy, and likely far better 3Q25 results for banks</li>
<li>Credit growth continues to accelerate, now at 4.67% YoY, weekly CP data is very strong, at +26% YoY</li>
<li>Credit metrics appear very strong, with LLR growing at almost nothing, at 1.36% YoY and less than 2% YoY for all weeks so far in this quarter</li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets at US banks show a strong economy, and likely far better 3Q25 results for banks
Credit growth continues to accelerate, now at 4.67% YoY, weekly CP data is very strong, at +26% YoY
Credit metrics appear very strong, with LLR growing at almost nothing, at 1.36% YoY and less than 2% YoY for all weeks so far in this quarter


US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

United States

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

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Morgan Stanley (MS US)

US Banks - Off B/S Growth +3.7% YoY in New 2Q25 Data, Credit Card PD Improve Dramatically

US bank's off balance sheet data is just out, showing good, improving growth in commitments, suggesting underlying loan growth is real demand, not...

Daniel Tabbush

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - September 30, 2025 (Eng.)

For KTX Tactical DR Picks today, we recommend initiating a position in TOYOTA80, a DR referencing Toyota Motor Corporation listed on the Japanese...

Krungthai XSpring

Oil and Gas Giants Shift from Expansion to Discipline Amid Supply Glut and Cost Pressures

Global oil majors are cutting jobs and investments due to weak demand and rising costs, with ExxonMobil emerging as the strongest player thanks to...

Mint Finance

US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

Volume of loans and commercial paper was already strong, now that debt is cheaper, this can accelerate. O/N CP rates already show rate cut. Low LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

Weekly balance sheets for US banks show accelerating 4.67% loan growth, and weekly CP data is very strong at +26% YoY. Credit metrics appear...

Daniel Tabbush

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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US Banks - Off B/S Growth +3.7% YoY in New 2Q25 Data, Credit Card PD Improve Dramatically

US bank's off balance sheet data is just out, showing good, improving growth in commitments, suggesting underlying loan growth is real demand, not...

Daniel Tabbush

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - September 30, 2025 (Eng.)

For KTX Tactical DR Picks today, we recommend initiating a position in TOYOTA80, a DR referencing Toyota Motor Corporation listed on the Japanese...

Krungthai XSpring

Oil and Gas Giants Shift from Expansion to Discipline Amid Supply Glut and Cost Pressures

​Global oil majors are cutting jobs and investments due to weak demand and rising costs, with ExxonMobil emerging as the strongest player thanks to...

Mint Finance

US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

Volume of loans and commercial paper was already strong, now that debt is cheaper, this can accelerate. O/N CP rates already show rate cut. Low LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

Weekly balance sheets for US banks show accelerating 4.67% loan growth, and weekly CP data is very strong at +26% YoY. Credit metrics appear...

Daniel Tabbush

Global oil majors are cutting jobs and investments due to weak demand and rising costs, with ExxonMobil emerging as the strongest player thanks to...