Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New high frequency data from the Fed in its weekly H8 series for US banks, shows loan growth at 5.22% YoY in week 12 November</li>
<li>There has not been a higher rate in a long time, since mid FY23 where the data is distorted from a low base effect in FY22</li>
<li>Steepening slope of weekly loan growth together with no real rise in loan loss allowance, gives a strong view of US credit metrics, demand</li>
</ul>


New high frequency data from the Fed in its weekly H8 series for US banks, shows loan growth at 5.22% YoY in week 12 November
There has not been a higher rate in a long time, since mid FY23 where the data is distorted from a low base effect in FY22
Steepening slope of weekly loan growth together with no real rise in loan loss allowance, gives a strong view of US credit metrics, demand


US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Accelerating Further at 5.22% YoY, Highest Pace in 2 Years

<ul>
<li>There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength</li>
<li>CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital</li>
<li>Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating</li>
</ul>


There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength
CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital
Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating


US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>We recommend selling MITSU19 with a holding-period return of +1.95%, and adding PINGAN80 in its place.</li><li>The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained 0.55% yesterday, supported by continued strength in US technology stocks.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.</li></ul>

We recommend selling MITSU19 with a holding-period return of +1.95%, and adding PINGAN80 in its place.The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained 0.55% yesterday, supported by continued strength in US technology stocks.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.

KTX Tactical DR Picks - November 12, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>We recommend closing the AMZN80 position with a 0.7% gain after it dropped out of our scoring criteria and opening a new position in NVDA80, which tracks NVIDIA Corporation, a leading US technology stock.</li><li>The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio rose 0.51% from the previous day, supported by improved sentiment following easing concerns over the US government shutdown.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.</li></ul>

We recommend closing the AMZN80 position with a 0.7% gain after it dropped out of our scoring criteria and opening a new position in NVDA80, which tracks NVIDIA Corporation, a leading US technology stock.The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio rose 0.51% from the previous day, supported by improved sentiment following easing concerns over the US government shutdown.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.

KTX Tactical DR Picks - November 11, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>For today’s KTX Tactical DR Picks, we recommend taking profit on NVDA80 after a 20.2% gain, while maintaining positions in 11 DRs primarily focused on global technology stocks, especially in the US.</li><li>The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained 0.45% from the previous day, as global markets rose following the Fed’s 0.25% rate cut announcement.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.</li></ul>

For today’s KTX Tactical DR Picks, we recommend taking profit on NVDA80 after a 20.2% gain, while maintaining positions in 11 DRs primarily focused on global technology stocks, especially in the US.The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained 0.45% from the previous day, as global markets rose following the Fed’s 0.25% rate cut announcement.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.

KTX Tactical DR Picks - October 30, 2025 (Eng.)

United States

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

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Morgan Stanley (MS US)

US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Accelerating Further at 5.22% YoY, Highest Pace in 2 Years

New weekly data from the Fed shows loans accelerating for US banks and with loan loss reserves still stable, suggesting strong credit market, overall.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

High frequency data from Fed on commercial paper and balance sheets is positive. Loans are accelerating to 5% YoY and CP is at 19% YoY, with LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

KTX Tactical DR Picks - November 12, 2025 (Eng.)

We recommend selling MITSU19 with a holding-period return of +1.95%, and adding PINGAN80 in its place.The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Tactical DR Picks - November 11, 2025 (Eng.)

he KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio rose 0.51% from the previous day, supported by improved sentiment following easing concerns over the US...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Tactical DR Picks - October 30, 2025 (Eng.)

The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained 0.45% from the previous day, as global markets rose following the Fed’s 0.25% rate cut announcement.

Krungthai XSpring

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