Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wells-fargo-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:232:1" rel="noopener">Wells Fargo &amp; Co (WFC US)</a> reported strong loan growth and much lower credit costs 3Q25</li>
<li>The credit costs from WFC are stepped down, and fully reflected of weekly B/S from Fed data</li>
<li>C&amp;I loans are up a lot, indicative of economic strength, NPL ratio for all loans, are falling more</li>
</ul>



Wells Fargo &amp; Co (WFC US) reported strong loan growth and much lower credit costs 3Q25
The credit costs from WFC are stepped down, and fully reflected of weekly B/S from Fed data
C&amp;I loans are up a lot, indicative of economic strength, NPL ratio for all loans, are falling more


Wells Fargo - Strong Loan Growth and Credit Metrics, in Line with Weekly B/S Data from Fed

<ul>
<li>Weekly data from Fed shows continued strength for banks and the underlying US economy, for data 1 October</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves (LLR) just hit a new low growth rate at 0.72% YoY which should be definitive: credit metrics in US are exceptional, and improving </li>
<li>New loan growth data hit a new high, up 4.86 YoY, sensible given we now have a bit more time passage after rate cut</li>
</ul>


Weekly data from Fed shows continued strength for banks and the underlying US economy, for data 1 October
Loan loss reserves (LLR) just hit a new low growth rate at 0.72% YoY which should be definitive: credit metrics in US are exceptional, and improving 
New loan growth data hit a new high, up 4.86 YoY, sensible given we now have a bit more time passage after rate cut


US Banks - Loan Loss Reserves Growth Hits Low at 0.72% YoY & Loan Growth Hits New High at 4.86%

<ul>
<li>Commercial paper (CP) market is for short-term working capital loans, and growth in most recent week is very strong, up 41% YoY. </li>
<li>We view the CP market as a good view on bank credit demand, underlying credit demand for working capital, which can lead to more investment. </li>
<li>Loan loss reserve (LLR) data is exceptional, in that it is almost not rising at all, with the latest week's growth rate down to just 1.1% YoY</li>
</ul>


Commercial paper (CP) market is for short-term working capital loans, and growth in most recent week is very strong, up 41% YoY. 
We view the CP market as a good view on bank credit demand, underlying credit demand for working capital, which can lead to more investment. 
Loan loss reserve (LLR) data is exceptional, in that it is almost not rising at all, with the latest week's growth rate down to just 1.1% YoY


US Banks - Commercial Paper +41% YoY in Most Recent Week, Loans +4.7%, LLR Growth Dwindles +1.1%

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>For KTX Tactical DR Picks today, we recommend closing positions in ESTEE80, MITSU19, and MS06, which delivered returns of +0.8%, –3.3%, and –0.3%, respectively.</li><li>The average return of the underlying securities in the portfolio slipped –0.23% from the previous day, amid concerns over the US government shutdown.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USDTHB Tracker shows that the baht is on an appreciating trend, posing FX risks for overseas investments, including DRs.</li></ul>

For KTX Tactical DR Picks today, we recommend closing positions in ESTEE80, MITSU19, and MS06, which delivered returns of +0.8%, –3.3%, and –0.3%, respectively.The average return of the underlying securities in the portfolio slipped –0.23% from the previous day, amid concerns over the US government shutdown.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USDTHB Tracker shows that the baht is on an appreciating trend, posing FX risks for overseas investments, including DRs.

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 2, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>For KTX Tactical DR Picks today, we recommend initiating a position in PINGAN80, a DR referencing Ping An Insurance Group Co., which is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</li><li>The average return of the underlying securities in the portfolio edged up +0.18% from the previous day.</li><li>Global markets, particularly the US, continued to climb, despite a government shutdown after the US Senate rejected the spending bill last night.</li></ul>

For KTX Tactical DR Picks today, we recommend initiating a position in PINGAN80, a DR referencing Ping An Insurance Group Co., which is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.The average return of the underlying securities in the portfolio edged up +0.18% from the previous day.Global markets, particularly the US, continued to climb, despite a government shutdown after the US Senate rejected the spending bill last night.

KTX Tactical DR Picks - October 1, 2025 (Eng.)

United States

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

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Morgan Stanley (MS US)

Wells Fargo - Strong Loan Growth and Credit Metrics, in Line with Weekly B/S Data from Fed

Strong data out from Wells Fargo for 3Q25 is very much in keeping with the weekly balance sheet data from Fed during the quarter, and as we are...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loan Loss Reserves Growth Hits Low at 0.72% YoY & Loan Growth Hits New High at 4.86%

New release from the Fed shows loan loss reserves at US banks seeing a lower growth rate that any time in the weekly series, and loan growth is...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Commercial Paper +41% YoY in Most Recent Week, Loans +4.7%, LLR Growth Dwindles +1.1%

Weekly data strengthens in US credit: CP shows 41% growth YoY in outstandings in most recent week. The small 1.1% growth rate of LLR for banks,...

Daniel Tabbush

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 2, 2025 (Eng.)

For KTX Tactical DR Picks today, we recommend closing positions in ESTEE80, MITSU19, and MS06, which delivered returns of +0.8%, –3.3%, and –0.3%,...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Tactical DR Picks - October 1, 2025 (Eng.)

For KTX Tactical DR Picks today, we recommend initiating a position in PINGAN80, a DR referencing Ping An Insurance Group Co., which is listed on...

Krungthai XSpring

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