Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but...</li>
<li>...we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support</li>
<li>Looking for support on the S&amp;P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish</li>
</ul>


Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but...
...we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
Looking for support on the S&amp;P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.</li>
<li>Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.</li>
<li>The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.</li>
</ul>


Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.


Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback <em>again</em>.</li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).


Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

<ul>
<li>Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.</li>
<li>This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass</li>
</ul>


Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass


Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MPLX reported year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, which attained $1.6 billion and distributable cash flow peaked at $1.4 billion, the latter being an increase of 8% from the previous year.</li><li>This significant financial performance underpins the company's commitment to return on and return of capital with an expectation for steady growth in the partnership through strict capital discipline.</li><li>This progress has seen MPLX yield a peer-leading return on invested capital over the past three years.</li></ul>

MPLX reported year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, which attained $1.6 billion and distributable cash flow peaked at $1.4 billion, the latter being an increase of 8% from the previous year.This significant financial performance underpins the company's commitment to return on and return of capital with an expectation for steady growth in the partnership through strict capital discipline.This progress has seen MPLX yield a peer-leading return on invested capital over the past three years.

MPLX LP: A Tale Of Financial Discipline and Organic Growth!  - Major Drivers

United States

MPLX LP acquires, owns, operates and develops crude oil, refined products and other hydrocarbon-based product pipelines and other midstream assets. The Company's assets consist of a network of common carrier crude oil and product pipeline systems and associated storage assets in the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions of the United States.

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MPLX LP (MPLX US)

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences (SPX and $IWM % above 20-dma); All Major Indexes Above Key Supports $DJI...

Vermilion Research

Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

US LNG volatility hits 12-month high amid turbulent fundamentals, driving nat-gas prices up 38.2%. Midstream/MLP ETFs shine in 2024 with inflows,...

Mint Finance

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF as discussed 5/29/24; Downgrading Materials $XLB to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long Software Stocks $IGV $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

MPLX LP: A Tale Of Financial Discipline and Organic Growth! - Major Drivers

MPLX reported year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, which attained $1.6 billion and distributable cash flow peaked at $1.4 billion, the latter...

Baptista Research

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S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences (SPX and $IWM % above 20-dma); All Major Indexes Above Key Supports $DJI...

Vermilion Research

Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

​US LNG volatility hits 12-month high amid turbulent fundamentals, driving nat-gas prices up 38.2%. Midstream/MLP ETFs shine in 2024 with inflows,...

Mint Finance

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF as discussed 5/29/24; Downgrading Materials $XLB to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long Software Stocks $IGV $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

MPLX LP: A Tale Of Financial Discipline and Organic Growth! - Major Drivers

MPLX reported year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, which attained $1.6 billion and distributable cash flow peaked at $1.4 billion, the latter...

Baptista Research

US LNG volatility hits 12-month high amid turbulent fundamentals, driving nat-gas prices up 38.2%. Midstream/MLP ETFs shine in 2024 with inflows,...