Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term. Additionally, considering the dearth of breakdowns, we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. We recap importat technical levels across markets and highlight opportunities within the Services, Technology, Financial Services, and Staples Sectors.

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term. Additionally, considering the dearth of breakdowns, we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. We recap importat technical levels across markets and highlight opportunities within the Services, Technology, Financial Services, and Staples Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Over Value

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point, concerns surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus have led to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators, however they have not resulted in breakdowns. This is true even for areas of the market most-directly affected, including China (MSCI China) and emerging markets (MSCI EM). For these reasons and, as long as there is no significant additional damage, we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity - especially within EM. We see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment and optimism in the short-term.

Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point, concerns surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus have led to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators, however they have not resulted in breakdowns. This is true even for areas of the market most-directly affected, including China (MSCI China) and emerging markets (MSCI EM). For these reasons and, as long as there is no significant additional damage, we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity - especially within EM. We see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment and optimism in the short-term.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity surging, led by US Federal Reserve</li>
<li>Cross-border flows switching from safe havens to riskier markets</li>
<li>Parallel with 1985-87 period which started with Plaza Accord and ended with 1987 Crash</li>
<li>Danger points to watch are skidding bond markets; commodity price inflation; Central Bank policy reversal, and especially collapsing cross-border flows</li>
</ul>


Global Liquidity surging, led by US Federal Reserve
Cross-border flows switching from safe havens to riskier markets
Parallel with 1985-87 period which started with Plaza Accord and ended with 1987 Crash
Danger points to watch are skidding bond markets; commodity price inflation; Central Bank policy reversal, and especially collapsing cross-border flows


<ul>
<li>
Central Banks continue to fuel markets</li>
<li>
China’s PBoC starting to add liquidity</li>
<li>Is this a Shanghai Accord 2 matching previous monetary deals like 1985 Plaza Accord?</li>
<li>
Emerging Markets potentially key beneficiaries in 2020</li>
</ul>



Central Banks continue to fuel markets

China’s PBoC starting to add liquidity
Is this a Shanghai Accord 2 matching previous monetary deals like 1985 Plaza Accord?

Emerging Markets potentially key beneficiaries in 2020


The Race To The Top? Beijing Chases The Wall Street Bubble

<ul>
<li>
People's Bank (PBoC) injects US$100 billion into markets in December</li>
<li>Is this a new Shanghai Accord with America after the US-China preliminary trade agreement?</li>
<li>Biggest PBoC net injections since October 2017 and bullish for Emerging Markets
</li>
<li>Longer-term look for a digital Yuan, off-shore Euroyuan markets, more Chinese bond sales and a Yuan trade credit market</li>
</ul>



People's Bank (PBoC) injects US$100 billion into markets in December
Is this a new Shanghai Accord with America after the US-China preliminary trade agreement?
Biggest PBoC net injections since October 2017 and bullish for Emerging Markets

Longer-term look for a digital Yuan, off-shore Euroyuan markets, more Chinese bond sales and a Yuan trade credit market


A New Shanghai Accord? … Is The PBoC Finally Easing?

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Over Value

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term....

Vermilion Research

EM Pullback Opportunity

Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point,...

Vermilion Research

What Is The Best Bear Market Signal?

Global Liquidity surging, led by US Federal Reserve Cross-border flows switching from safe havens to riskier markets Parallel with 1985-87 period...

Michael J. Howell

The Race To The Top? Beijing Chases The Wall Street Bubble

Central Banks continue to fuel markets China’s PBoC starting to add liquidity Is this a Shanghai Accord 2 matching previous monetary deals like...

Michael J. Howell

A New Shanghai Accord? … Is The PBoC Finally Easing?

People's Bank (PBoC) injects US$100 billion into markets in December Is this a new Shanghai Accord with America after the US-China preliminary...

Michael J. Howell