Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Latest RRR cuts are only tactical and do NOT signal strategic monetary ease</li>
<li>
PBoC liquidity injections are the key monetary signal</li>
<li>
Liquidity jumped from May through July but August flat and September weak</li>
<li>No indication yet that PBoC easing aggressively….but they will</li>
</ul>


Latest RRR cuts are only tactical and do NOT signal strategic monetary ease

PBoC liquidity injections are the key monetary signal

Liquidity jumped from May through July but August flat and September weak
No indication yet that PBoC easing aggressively….but they will


Understanding Chinese Monetary Policy: Trying Hard to Ease?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

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In recent weeks, global and local political developments retained their role as a leading cause of market jitters. The markets whipsawed through August, following the twists and turns in the US-China trade saga. The seasonal shortage of liquidity probably exacerbated the market moves. Deteriorating high-frequency economic data from the world’s leading economies are also a cause for concern, with a probability of a global recession increasing. 
In autumn, seasonal influences and more easing from leading central banks should improve market liquidity. These factors, as well as a gradual realisation that announcements by US President Donald Trump need to be taken with a grain of salt, should make the markets less sensitive to the news regarding the progress of US-China negotiations. Eventually, the markets could adopt a longer view of the US-China relations and react only to the headlines materially altering it. 
</div>


In recent weeks, global and local political developments retained their role as a leading cause of market jitters. The markets whipsawed through August, following the twists and turns in the US-China trade saga. The seasonal shortage of liquidity probably exacerbated the market moves. Deteriorating high-frequency economic data from the world’s leading economies are also a cause for concern, with a probability of a global recession increasing. 
In autumn, seasonal influences and more easing from leading central banks should improve market liquidity. These factors, as well as a gradual realisation that announcements by US President Donald Trump need to be taken with a grain of salt, should make the markets less sensitive to the news regarding the progress of US-China negotiations. Eventually, the markets could adopt a longer view of the US-China relations and react only to the headlines materially altering it. 


Geopolitical Comment: Time to Stop Following Trump's Vacillations and Focus on Longer View Instead

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain near logical resistance as investors await monetary policy decisions from the ECB and Federal Reserve. Considering overhead resistance and continued mixed economic and market signals, we remain squarely in the neutral camp.  We outline important technical levels across major indexes and highlight attractive opportunities within the Manufacturing, Transportation, and Materials Sectors, most of which hail from Europe and Japan.

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain near logical resistance as investors await monetary policy decisions from the ECB and Federal Reserve. Considering overhead resistance and continued mixed economic and market signals, we remain squarely in the neutral camp.  We outline important technical levels across major indexes and highlight attractive opportunities within the Manufacturing, Transportation, and Materials Sectors, most of which hail from Europe and Japan.

Global Equity Strategy: Overhead Resistance Looms

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

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Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical...

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Geopolitical Comment: Time to Stop Following Trump's Vacillations and Focus on Longer View Instead

In recent weeks, global and local political developments retained their role as a leading cause of market jitters. The markets whipsawed through...

Tatiana Orlova

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overhead Resistance Looms

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain near logical resistance as investors await monetary policy decisions from the ECB...

Vermilion Research