Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000.</li>
<li>We recently hit marginal new lows; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to bearish, we believe there is potential for an oversold bounce</li>
<li>Still, we will need to see the NYSE have back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day to have confidence that a major bottom is in place.</li>
</ul>


We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000.
We recently hit marginal new lows; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to bearish, we believe there is potential for an oversold bounce
Still, we will need to see the NYSE have back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day to have confidence that a major bottom is in place.


Fed Set to Hike 50 Bps As Indexes Test Support; Energy Stocks to Buy on Pullbacks

<p>Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements in this report, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.  In today’s report we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: Refining, Banks, Super-Regional, Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and Data Storage Solutions &amp; Devices, Large-Cap.</p>

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements in this report, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.  In today’s report we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: Refining, Banks, Super-Regional, Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and Data Storage Solutions &amp; Devices, Large-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Murphy USA Inc. has reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting both positive advancements and certain challenges in its operations.</li><li>The company's performance during the quarter was influenced by varied market factors, including geopolitically induced stable fuel prices, evolving consumer trends, and operational enhancements.</li><li>Fuel volume trends indicated a decline, with same-store fuel volumes down by 3.2% compared to the prior year.</li></ul>

Murphy USA Inc. has reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting both positive advancements and certain challenges in its operations.The company's performance during the quarter was influenced by varied market factors, including geopolitically induced stable fuel prices, evolving consumer trends, and operational enhancements.Fuel volume trends indicated a decline, with same-store fuel volumes down by 3.2% compared to the prior year.

Murphy USA Is Doubling Down on Store Growth—Why Its 50/50 Capital Strategy Is a Game-Changer!

<ul><li>Murphy USA Inc. presented its first quarter results for 2025, offering insights into the company's current performance and forward-looking strategies.</li><li>The company reported varying impacts on its operations, citing temporal, cyclical, and structural factors.</li><li>During the quarter, Murphy USA faced several non-recurring temporal challenges, notably the absence of a leap year and varying timing of Easter, coupled with unanticipated severe weather.</li></ul>

Murphy USA Inc. presented its first quarter results for 2025, offering insights into the company's current performance and forward-looking strategies.The company reported varying impacts on its operations, citing temporal, cyclical, and structural factors.During the quarter, Murphy USA faced several non-recurring temporal challenges, notably the absence of a leap year and varying timing of Easter, coupled with unanticipated severe weather.

Murphy USA: Expanding Store Footprint & Enhanced Store Productivity to Fortify Its Competitive Positioning!

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If indeed the company proceeds with 2 trillion yen buyback over five years, this would represent buyback of about 7.3% of its shares per year (37% of market cap). </li>
<li>Seven &amp; I Holdings' plans to massively buyback shares and IPO its North American CVS business are major catalysts that should have positive impact both near and long term. </li>
<li>Certainly, the company's action plan to sell its non-core assets (including supermarket, restaurant, and specialty stores) to Bain Capital for $5.5 billion is a step in the right direction.</li>
</ul>


If indeed the company proceeds with 2 trillion yen buyback over five years, this would represent buyback of about 7.3% of its shares per year (37% of market cap). 
Seven &amp; I Holdings' plans to massively buyback shares and IPO its North American CVS business are major catalysts that should have positive impact both near and long term. 
Certainly, the company's action plan to sell its non-core assets (including supermarket, restaurant, and specialty stores) to Bain Capital for $5.5 billion is a step in the right direction.


Seven & I Holdings: Mega Share Buyback Plan and IPO of North American CVS Unit to Boost Share Price

United States

Murphy USA Inc. produces and distributes petroleum products. The Company engages in refining, marketing, and transportation of oil and gas products. Murphy USA provides products and services worldwide.

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Murphy Usa Inc (MUSA US)

Fed Set to Hike 50 Bps As Indexes Test Support; Energy Stocks to Buy on Pullbacks

We recently hit marginal new lows, something we have warned about over the past month; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a...

Vermilion Research

Murphy USA Is Doubling Down on Store Growth—Why Its 50/50 Capital Strategy Is a Game-Changer!

Murphy USA Inc. has reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting both positive advancements and certain challenges in...

Baptista Research

Murphy USA: Expanding Store Footprint & Enhanced Store Productivity to Fortify Its Competitive Positioning!

Murphy USA Inc. presented its first quarter results for 2025, offering insights into the company's current performance and forward-looking...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Fed Set to Hike 50 Bps As Indexes Test Support; Energy Stocks to Buy on Pullbacks

We recently hit marginal new lows, something we have warned about over the past month; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a...

Vermilion Research

Murphy USA Is Doubling Down on Store Growth—Why Its 50/50 Capital Strategy Is a Game-Changer!

Murphy USA Inc. has reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting both positive advancements and certain challenges in...

Baptista Research

Murphy USA: Expanding Store Footprint & Enhanced Store Productivity to Fortify Its Competitive Positioning!

Murphy USA Inc. presented its first quarter results for 2025, offering insights into the company's current performance and forward-looking...

Baptista Research

Seven & I Holdings: Mega Share Buyback Plan and IPO of North American CVS Unit to Boost Share Price

Seven & I Holdings' plans to massively buyback shares and IPO its North American CVS business are major catalysts that should have positive impact...

Douglas Kim