Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Memory Market Diverges: AI Demand Continues to Surges While Legacy Segments Struggle in November</li>
<li>Diverging Demand Trends Highlight Market Decoupling -- AI Driving HBM, Server DRAM, QLC NAND Demand</li>
<li>Outlook for the Memory Market -- Decoupling Trade: Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech Trade</li>
</ul>


Memory Market Diverges: AI Demand Continues to Surges While Legacy Segments Struggle in November
Diverging Demand Trends Highlight Market Decoupling -- AI Driving HBM, Server DRAM, QLC NAND Demand
Outlook for the Memory Market -- Decoupling Trade: Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech Trade


Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q324 DRAM revenues amounted to $25.4 billion, up 8.6% QoQ and up 92.4% YoY</li>
<li>Q324 NAND revenues amounted to $17.9 billion, up 9.8% QoQ and up 93.6% YoY</li>
<li>PC, Smartphone segments sluggish due to high inventory levels while HBM and DDR5 are on fire driven by insatiable demand in the AI server segment. Decoupling continues into 2025.</li>
</ul>


Q324 DRAM revenues amounted to $25.4 billion, up 8.6% QoQ and up 92.4% YoY
Q324 NAND revenues amounted to $17.9 billion, up 9.8% QoQ and up 93.6% YoY
PC, Smartphone segments sluggish due to high inventory levels while HBM and DDR5 are on fire driven by insatiable demand in the AI server segment. Decoupling continues into 2025.


Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia to use GB200 AI server chips, staying ahead in cloud innovation.</li><li>Hong Kong's October tech fairs will showcase electronics and lighting innovations from 6,000+ global exhibitors.</li><li>Middle East pager explosions heighten concerns about Western V2X security, while China's advances in silicon photonics may boost AI development.</li></ul>

Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia to use GB200 AI server chips, staying ahead in cloud innovation.Hong Kong's October tech fairs will showcase electronics and lighting innovations from 6,000+ global exhibitors.Middle East pager explosions heighten concerns about Western V2X security, while China's advances in silicon photonics may boost AI development.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Oct-2024): Azure leads in Nvidia's GB200 AI chips, fueling cloud innovation.

<ul>
<li>Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month earlier</li>
<li>Companies with a strong exposure to the AI Acceleration market are on track for strong revenue growth YoY in 2024. ASPEED is on track to double revenues this year. </li>
<li>For many of the remainder, what tepid growth they had been experiencing may be starting to stall. Watch this space. </li>
</ul>


Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month earlier
Companies with a strong exposure to the AI Acceleration market are on track for strong revenue growth YoY in 2024. ASPEED is on track to double revenues this year. 
For many of the remainder, what tepid growth they had been experiencing may be starting to stall. Watch this space. 


Taiwan Semi Monthly Tracker Red Flags Double MoM In September 2024

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results missed expecations by a wide margin, coming in with a net loss instead of the consensus expectation for a profit.</li>
<li>Nanya highlighed weakness in non-AI end applications for memory and cut its 2024E Capex guidance by nearly 25%, signaling caution towards the current market cycle.</li>
<li>While the company's new DDR5 capacity ramp-up should support stronger margins into 2025E, Nanya has yet to show a signifcant margin upturn in the cycle. </li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results missed expecations by a wide margin, coming in with a net loss instead of the consensus expectation for a profit.
Nanya highlighed weakness in non-AI end applications for memory and cut its 2024E Capex guidance by nearly 25%, signaling caution towards the current market cycle.
While the company's new DDR5 capacity ramp-up should support stronger margins into 2025E, Nanya has yet to show a signifcant margin upturn in the cycle. 


Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies

Q324 DRAM $25.4 billion, +8.6% QoQ & +92.4% YoY. NAND was $17.9 billion, +9.8% QoQ & +93.6% YoY. Legacy markets sluggish while HBM and DDR5 are on...

William Keating

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Oct-2024): Azure leads in Nvidia's GB200 AI chips, fueling cloud innovation.

Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia for cloud innovation using GB200 AI server chips, Hong Kong tech fairs to feature 6,000+ exhibitors, Middle...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Semi Monthly Tracker Red Flags Double MoM In September 2024

Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand

Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results disappoint with net loss, cuts Capex guidance by 25% due to weak non-AI memory demand, but DDR5 capacity ramp-up may...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

​AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies

Q324 DRAM $25.4 billion, +8.6% QoQ & +92.4% YoY. NAND was $17.9 billion, +9.8% QoQ & +93.6% YoY. Legacy markets sluggish while HBM and DDR5 are on...

William Keating

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Oct-2024): Azure leads in Nvidia's GB200 AI chips, fueling cloud innovation.

Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia for cloud innovation using GB200 AI server chips, Hong Kong tech fairs to feature 6,000+ exhibitors, Middle...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Semi Monthly Tracker Red Flags Double MoM In September 2024

Seven Taiwan semi companies from our list of sixteen are now showing negative YoY monthly growth as of September 2024, up from just three a month...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand

​Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results disappoint with net loss, cuts Capex guidance by 25% due to weak non-AI memory demand, but DDR5 capacity ramp-up may...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results disappoint with net loss, cuts Capex guidance by 25% due to weak non-AI memory demand, but DDR5 capacity ramp-up may...