Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down </li>
<li>Both DRAM and NAND are now selling well below cost, for all producers</li>
<li>Despite a gradually improving outlook, Micron still anticipates a further $500 million inventory write-down in their current quarter</li>
</ul>


On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down 
Both DRAM and NAND are now selling well below cost, for all producers
Despite a gradually improving outlook, Micron still anticipates a further $500 million inventory write-down in their current quarter


Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

<ul>
<li>H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn't look any better.</li>
<li>We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.</li>
<li>Micron's upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. </li>
</ul>


H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn't look any better.
We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.
Micron's upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. 


Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October</li>
<li>There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.</li>
<li>Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October
There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.
Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors


Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor memories, the most volatile part of the chip market, have declined dramatically since June</li>
<li>During downturns memory chip prices typically collapse until they hit cost</li>
<li>NAND appears to be selling at or near cost, but DRAM still has room for further declines</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor memories, the most volatile part of the chip market, have declined dramatically since June
During downturns memory chip prices typically collapse until they hit cost
NAND appears to be selling at or near cost, but DRAM still has room for further declines


Memory Makers Update: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, WDC, Kioxia

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC is holding about US$1bn of finished Apple processors it cannot package for want of DRAM, and first-half smartphone processor shipments fell 15% year over year.</li>
<li>Memory revenue rose 305% in the first half against 45% for logic; WSTS raised its 2026 industry forecast to US$1.655tn, growth of 108%.</li>
<li>Winbond's customers are pressing for supply contracts running into 2030, SanDisk has sold about two-thirds of its fiscal 2028 output, and Nan Ya PCB approved its largest ever plant.</li>
</ul>


TSMC is holding about US$1bn of finished Apple processors it cannot package for want of DRAM, and first-half smartphone processor shipments fell 15% year over year.
Memory revenue rose 305% in the first half against 45% for logic; WSTS raised its 2026 industry forecast to US$1.655tn, growth of 108%.
Winbond's customers are pressing for supply contracts running into 2030, SanDisk has sold about two-thirds of its fiscal 2028 output, and Nan Ya PCB approved its largest ever plant.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: DRAM Strands US$1bn of Apple Chips; Customers Now Book 2030 Capacity

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down. A further...

William Keating

Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

We anticipate memory revenues to trough in Q1 2023, be sequentially flat Q2 followed by modest growth through H2. So far, Q1 has not shown any...

William Keating

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Today's semiconductor market is closely following the forecast we shared in October. This Insight compares the forecast to actual data for the...

Jim Handy

Memory Makers Update: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, WDC, Kioxia

The semiconductor memory market has collapsed, but the collapse is nearly over for Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, WDC, and Kioxia.

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: DRAM Strands US$1bn of Apple Chips; Customers Now Book 2030 Capacity

TSMC faces DRAM shortage, smartphone processor shipments drop, memory revenue surges, industry forecast raised, Winbond and SanDisk see strong...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down. A further...

William Keating

Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

We anticipate memory revenues to trough in Q1 2023, be sequentially flat Q2 followed by modest growth through H2. So far, Q1 has not shown any...

William Keating

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Today's semiconductor market is closely following the forecast we shared in October. This Insight compares the forecast to actual data for the...

Jim Handy

Memory Makers Update: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, WDC, Kioxia

The semiconductor memory market has collapsed, but the collapse is nearly over for Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, WDC, and Kioxia.

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: DRAM Strands US$1bn of Apple Chips; Customers Now Book 2030 Capacity

​TSMC faces DRAM shortage, smartphone processor shipments drop, memory revenue surges, industry forecast raised, Winbond and SanDisk see strong...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC faces DRAM shortage, smartphone processor shipments drop, memory revenue surges, industry forecast raised, Winbond and SanDisk see strong...