Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Using the last close, there could be one change for the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one other constituent that is close to deletion zone while there are a couple of non-constituents that could move into inclusion zone over the next couple of weeks.</li>
<li>Short interest has been dropping in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> and increasing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a> over the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Using the last close, there could be one change for the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September with Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) replacing Nanya Technology (2408 TT). 
There is one other constituent that is close to deletion zone while there are a couple of non-constituents that could move into inclusion zone over the next couple of weeks.
Short interest has been dropping in Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) and increasing in Nanya Technology (2408 TT) over the last few weeks.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Right at the Cusp

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech reported a continued net loss in its latest 2Q24 results; the company's gross margin has rebounded into positive territory but only marginally so.</li>
<li>Server end demand strong, however PC and mobile remain flattish; the company expects some improvemnt in PC and mobile driven by AI trends but conservative on the impact for 2024E.</li>
<li>We believe the Street may need to reduce their 2024E estimates; margin rebound is too small and guidance remains very conservative. We see near-term downside risk for Nanya Tech shares.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech reported a continued net loss in its latest 2Q24 results; the company's gross margin has rebounded into positive territory but only marginally so.
Server end demand strong, however PC and mobile remain flattish; the company expects some improvemnt in PC and mobile driven by AI trends but conservative on the impact for 2024E.
We believe the Street may need to reduce their 2024E estimates; margin rebound is too small and guidance remains very conservative. We see near-term downside risk for Nanya Tech shares.


Nanya Technology: Latest Results & Guidance Make 2024E Consensus Hard to Achieve; Underperform

<ul>
<li>Data Centers -- Traditional Data Center Recovery Starting; In Addition to HBM Demand, SSD Memory Seeing Strength for AI Applications</li>
<li>PCs -- Upcycle to Accelerate "Late CY2024E", Driven by Windows 12 and End of Windows 10</li>
<li>Mobile Devices -- Moderate Growth in CY2024E; Potential for Smartphone Upgrade Cycle Acceleration</li>
</ul>


Data Centers -- Traditional Data Center Recovery Starting; In Addition to HBM Demand, SSD Memory Seeing Strength for AI Applications
PCs -- Upcycle to Accelerate "Late CY2024E", Driven by Windows 12 and End of Windows 10
Mobile Devices -- Moderate Growth in CY2024E; Potential for Smartphone Upgrade Cycle Acceleration


Memory Monitor: Micron's Shares May Be Falling But Results' Industry Implications Are Positive

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 21st which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,865.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD7,730mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech, Wiwynn, Evergreen Marine, Asia Vital, Alchip Tech, TSMC, Chailease.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 21st which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,865.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD7,730mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech, Wiwynn, Evergreen Marine, Asia Vital, Alchip Tech, TSMC, Chailease.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 21st): Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech

<ul>
<li>Computex showed how Micron has successfully leap-frogged SK Hynix and Samsung in HBM DRAM for AI Servers.</li>
<li>Now, older 'boring' DRAM prices could surge as HBM DRAM production is voraciously consuming memory fab capacity.</li>
<li>Why Nanya Tech shares could surge higher -- A DRAM memory trade for those who don't want to chase steep 52-week highs in Micron and SK Hynix.</li>
</ul>


Computex showed how Micron has successfully leap-frogged SK Hynix and Samsung in HBM DRAM for AI Servers.
Now, older 'boring' DRAM prices could surge as HBM DRAM production is voraciously consuming memory fab capacity.
Why Nanya Tech shares could surge higher -- A DRAM memory trade for those who don't want to chase steep 52-week highs in Micron and SK Hynix.


Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Right at the Cusp

There could be one change for the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September. Review cutoff is two weeks away and there are some stocks that are close to the...

Brian Freitas

Nanya Technology: Latest Results & Guidance Make 2024E Consensus Hard to Achieve; Underperform

Continued net loss in 2Q24, with marginal gross margin improvement. Server demand strong, but PC and mobile flat. Street may need to lower 2024E...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron's Shares May Be Falling But Results' Industry Implications Are Positive

Discusses the recovery of traditional data centers, strength in SSD memory for AI applications, upcycle in PCs driven by Windows 12, and potential...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 21st): Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Right at the Cusp

There could be one change for the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September. Review cutoff is two weeks away and there are some stocks that are close to the...

Brian Freitas

Nanya Technology: Latest Results & Guidance Make 2024E Consensus Hard to Achieve; Underperform

Continued net loss in 2Q24, with marginal gross margin improvement. Server demand strong, but PC and mobile flat. Street may need to lower 2024E...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron's Shares May Be Falling But Results' Industry Implications Are Positive

Discusses the recovery of traditional data centers, strength in SSD memory for AI applications, upcycle in PCs driven by Windows 12, and potential...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 21st): Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Quanta Computer, Asmedia Tech, Delta Elec, Nanya...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

​Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...