New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Napier Port's (NPH) third quarter result highlights: (1) further recovery from Cyclone Gabrielle, as volume improvements generate meaningful operating leverage, and (2) an immaterial impact from the current (temporary) high electricity price, driving plant closures among key customers.</li><li>Consequently, management has retained its full year earnings guidance (EBITDA range of NZ$50m–N$53m), which should lead to further strong growth in FY25.</li><li>NPH appears cheap against peers and against its own trading history. Its one year forward PE discount to larger sector peer, Port of Tauranga (POT), is the widest (&gt;40%) it's been since NPH listed in 2019. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

Napier Port's (NPH) third quarter result highlights: (1) further recovery from Cyclone Gabrielle, as volume improvements generate meaningful operating leverage, and (2) an immaterial impact from the current (temporary) high electricity price, driving plant closures among key customers.Consequently, management has retained its full year earnings guidance (EBITDA range of NZ$50m–N$53m), which should lead to further strong growth in FY25.NPH appears cheap against peers and against its own trading history. Its one year forward PE discount to larger sector peer, Port of Tauranga (POT), is the widest (&gt;40%) it's been since NPH listed in 2019. 

Napier Port - 3Q24 Result — Voyage of Recovery

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div id="m_7505193840733105993iubdj-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2"><ul><li>The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are evident.</li><li>The latter most notably on global air and sea freight lanes, where activity is up against a destocking impacted prior year.</li><li>In contrast, the pricing environment is generally favourable for freight, but headwinds persist for passenger transport. </li></ul></div>

The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are evident.The latter most notably on global air and sea freight lanes, where activity is up against a destocking impacted prior year.In contrast, the pricing environment is generally favourable for freight, but headwinds persist for passenger transport. 

<ul><li>We upgrade Napier Port (NPH) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following a strong 1H24 result, which again highlighted its effective pricing power.</li><li>A +25% increase in EBITDA (against the prior year) was largely driven by unit revenue gains in its container and cruise operations. ​​​​​​​</li><li>We expect the company to continue to use pricing as a strategic lever to grow earnings and lift returns. In the near term this will be supported by a full Cyclone Gabrielle volume recovery. </li></ul>

We upgrade Napier Port (NPH) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following a strong 1H24 result, which again highlighted its effective pricing power.A +25% increase in EBITDA (against the prior year) was largely driven by unit revenue gains in its container and cruise operations. ​​​​​​​We expect the company to continue to use pricing as a strategic lever to grow earnings and lift returns. In the near term this will be supported by a full Cyclone Gabrielle volume recovery. 

Napier Port - 1H24 — Wharf a Bit More Than We Port

<ul><li>Napier Port's (POT) 1H24 trade volumes were mixed but in aggregate should contribute to a strong sequential profit bounce following a weak 2H23 which was materially impacted by Cyclone Gabrielle.</li><li>First half container volumes fell -17% against the prior year, but this shortfall should be more than made up for by a strong lift in bulk cargo tonnage (+22%) and an additional 26 cruise vessel calls.</li><li>Log exports were particularly strong, helped by central North Island windthrown related harvesting and additional unprocessed log volume from the Pan Pac closure. </li></ul>

Napier Port's (POT) 1H24 trade volumes were mixed but in aggregate should contribute to a strong sequential profit bounce following a weak 2H23 which was materially impacted by Cyclone Gabrielle.First half container volumes fell -17% against the prior year, but this shortfall should be more than made up for by a strong lift in bulk cargo tonnage (+22%) and an additional 26 cruise vessel calls.Log exports were particularly strong, helped by central North Island windthrown related harvesting and additional unprocessed log volume from the Pan Pac closure. 

<ul><li>Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.</li><li>The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.</li><li>Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. </li></ul>

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. 

New Zealand

Napier Port Holdings Limited provides shipping services. The Company offers transportation for cargo and passenger. Napier Port Holdings serves customers in New Zealand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Napier Port (NPH NZ)

Napier Port - 3Q24 Result — Voyage of Recovery

Consequently, management has retained its full year earnings guidance (EBITDA range of NZ$50m–N$53m), which should lead to further strong growth in...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Freight Expectations

The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are...

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port - 1H24 — Wharf a Bit More Than We Port

We upgrade Napier Port (NPH) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following a strong 1H24 result, which again highlighted its effective pricing power.

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port - First Half Whiplash

Log exports were particularly strong, helped by central North Island windthrown related harvesting and additional unprocessed log volume from the...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - A Second Wave

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years. The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight,...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)