IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a> IE considers the Macquarie Asset Management’s scheme offer at A$5.20 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range of A$4.93-5.41.</li>
<li>The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval, OIO approval, and ACCC approval. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming, and the scheme vote is low risk.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 28 July payment, the gross/annualised spread of the A$5.1465 offer (A$5.20 less the A$0.053 interim dividend) is 2.7%/10.5%.  </li>
</ul>


The Qube Holdings (QUB AU) IE considers the Macquarie Asset Management’s scheme offer at A$5.20 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range of A$4.93-5.41.
The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval, OIO approval, and ACCC approval. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming, and the scheme vote is low risk.
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 28 July payment, the gross/annualised spread of the A$5.1465 offer (A$5.20 less the A$0.053 interim dividend) is 2.7%/10.5%.  


Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Scheme Vote on 16 June

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Although projected timelines for autonomous vehicle deployment and adoption have historically proven overly optimistic, major transport companies are currently conducting live trials, suggesting that autonomous truck adoption may be at an inflection point.</li><li>While timelines for autonomous vehicle adoption have historically been overly optimistic, and current trials may not lead to widespread adoption, the fact that autonomous trucks are moving real freight volumes increases the confidence that the autonomous truck technology is reaching a point where widespread adoption over time is likely.</li><li>In New Zealand, the average age of a truck driver is 46.5 years, +5 years greater than the general workforce and 10% of truck drivers are over retirement age.</li></ul>

Although projected timelines for autonomous vehicle deployment and adoption have historically proven overly optimistic, major transport companies are currently conducting live trials, suggesting that autonomous truck adoption may be at an inflection point.While timelines for autonomous vehicle adoption have historically been overly optimistic, and current trials may not lead to widespread adoption, the fact that autonomous trucks are moving real freight volumes increases the confidence that the autonomous truck technology is reaching a point where widespread adoption over time is likely.In New Zealand, the average age of a truck driver is 46.5 years, +5 years greater than the general workforce and 10% of truck drivers are over retirement age.

Transport Titbits – Autonomous Truck Adoption Slowly Shifting Gears

<ul><li>On 22 December 2025, NZ signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with India after nine months of negotiations.</li><li>Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.</li><li>The benefits to other exporters within our coverage (The a2 Milk Company [ATM], Port of Tauranga [POT], Napier Port [NPH], Skellerup [SKL], Sanford [SAN], and Synlait Milk [SML]) are relatively immaterial today (varies by company), but the FTA is still a small positive, particularly for medium to long-term growth potential.</li></ul>

On 22 December 2025, NZ signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with India after nine months of negotiations.Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.The benefits to other exporters within our coverage (The a2 Milk Company [ATM], Port of Tauranga [POT], Napier Port [NPH], Skellerup [SKL], Sanford [SAN], and Synlait Milk [SML]) are relatively immaterial today (varies by company), but the FTA is still a small positive, particularly for medium to long-term growth potential.

Equity Strategy NZ–India FTA — An Early Christmas Present

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating leverage.</li><li>Management continues to expect FY25 EBITDA to be at the top of its full-year guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$63m, implying a flat 4Q25 versus the prior year.</li><li>NPH continues to trade at a wide discount to POT on both a one year forward EV/EBITDA and PE basis, the quantum of which we believe is unjustified.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating leverage.Management continues to expect FY25 EBITDA to be at the top of its full-year guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$63m, implying a flat 4Q25 versus the prior year.NPH continues to trade at a wide discount to POT on both a one year forward EV/EBITDA and PE basis, the quantum of which we believe is unjustified.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> is acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)</a> for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy</a> shares for each share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy (MNW NZ)</a> is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> due to increased index shares.</li>
<li>As a replacement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manawa-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35969:1" rel="noopener">Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)</a>, there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.</li>
</ul>



Contact Energy (CEN NZ) is acquiring Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ) for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 Contact Energy shares for each share of Manawa Energy.

Manawa Energy (MNW NZ) is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for Contact Energy (CEN NZ) due to increased index shares.
As a replacement for Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ), there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.


Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

New Zealand

Napier Port Holdings Limited provides shipping services. The Company offers transportation for cargo and passenger. Napier Port Holdings serves customers in New Zealand.

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Napier Port (NPH NZ)

Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Scheme Vote on 16 June

A day after the scheme vote passed, the ACCC approved the transaction. FIRB and OIO approvals should also be forthcoming. At the last close and for...

Arun George

Transport Titbits – Autonomous Truck Adoption Slowly Shifting Gears

Although projected timelines for autonomous vehicle deployment and adoption have historically proven overly optimistic, major transport companies...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy NZ–India FTA — An Early Christmas Present

Within our research coverage, we view Scales Corporation (SCL) as the most positively exposed to this agreement, both near term and long term.

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port Running a Tight Ship

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

Manawa Energy is expected to stop trading after 7 July. There will be an increase in index shares for Contact Energy in global/local indices and...

Brian Freitas

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