New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly, particularly for seafreight, with global spot indices now down ~80% from their peaks but still above pre-pandemic levels</li><li>Air cargo's rates compression has been slower, mirroring the slow recovery in air seat capacity</li><li>In this normalising, yet far from normal environment, Freightways (FRE; OUTPERFORM) and Mainfreight (MFT; OUTPERFORM) remain our preferred exposures in the sector</li></ul>

Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly, particularly for seafreight, with global spot indices now down ~80% from their peaks but still above pre-pandemic levelsAir cargo's rates compression has been slower, mirroring the slow recovery in air seat capacityIn this normalising, yet far from normal environment, Freightways (FRE; OUTPERFORM) and Mainfreight (MFT; OUTPERFORM) remain our preferred exposures in the sector

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NPH reported a subdued FY22 result in-line with expectations and issued first time FY23 EBITDA guidance, implying robust growth, but materially lower than we had anticipated</li><li>Earnings growth will be driven by the return of cruise and more normalised cargo volumes</li><li>NPH now trades at a one year forward PE of ~27x on our estimates and ~13x EV/EBITDA</li></ul>

NPH reported a subdued FY22 result in-line with expectations and issued first time FY23 EBITDA guidance, implying robust growth, but materially lower than we had anticipatedEarnings growth will be driven by the return of cruise and more normalised cargo volumesNPH now trades at a one year forward PE of ~27x on our estimates and ~13x EV/EBITDA

Napier Port: FY22 — Wall of Wood Logjam

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a soft FY22 result with EBITDA down -8% reflecting an -8% drop in cargo volumes and rapidly increasing costs, partly mitigated by strong pricing gains.</li><li>EBITDA of NZ$40.1m was in the middle of management’s guidance range NZ$38m-NZ$42m.</li><li>The company will pay a fully imputed final dividend of 4.7c per share.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a soft FY22 result with EBITDA down -8% reflecting an -8% drop in cargo volumes and rapidly increasing costs, partly mitigated by strong pricing gains.EBITDA of NZ$40.1m was in the middle of management’s guidance range NZ$38m-NZ$42m.The company will pay a fully imputed final dividend of 4.7c per share.

Napier Port: FY22 Result Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight market</li><li>Mainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growth</li><li>Port of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment</li></ul>

Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight marketMainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growthPort of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment

<div><ul><li>Subdued volume backdrop: Third quarter volumes were solid in an unfavourable environment and represented a sequential improvement after a difficult first half</li><li>Cost pressures: Cost inflation is significant for NPH currently</li><li>Cruise coming back: NPH has 89 cruise vessels scheduled to visit during the 2022–23 season</li></ul><p></p></div>

Subdued volume backdrop: Third quarter volumes were solid in an unfavourable environment and represented a sequential improvement after a difficult first halfCost pressures: Cost inflation is significant for NPH currentlyCruise coming back: NPH has 89 cruise vessels scheduled to visit during the 2022–23 season

Napier Port: Third Quarter Highlights Cost Pressures

New Zealand

Napier Port Holdings Limited provides shipping services. The Company offers transportation for cargo and passenger. Napier Port Holdings serves customers in New Zealand.

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Napier Port (NPH NZ)

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

The industry is normalising, but from different angles and at a different rates: Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly,...

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port: FY22 — Wall of Wood Logjam

NPH reported a subdued FY22 result in-line with expectations and issued first time FY23 EBITDA guidance, implying robust growth, but materially...

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port: FY22 Result Initial Thoughts

Napier Port (NPH) reported a soft FY22 result with EBITDA down -8% reflecting an -8% drop in cargo volumes and rapidly increasing costs, partly...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends: Mixed Bag

The post-pandemic world is a mixed bag for the transport sector: aviation is enjoying an expected and much needed resurgence; global airfreight...

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port: Third Quarter Highlights Cost Pressures

Napier Port's (NPH) 3Q22 result showed sequential improvement following a tough first half

Forsyth Barr

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