Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.</li>
<li>The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. </li>
<li>The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.</li>
</ul>


The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.
The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. 
The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.


ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

<ul>
<li>History shows that stock market bubbles - a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year - are extremely rare.</li>
<li>We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.</li>
<li>When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.</li>
</ul>


History shows that stock market bubbles - a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year - are extremely rare.
We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.
When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.


Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended May 19, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 4.4% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.9%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 3.0%).</li>
<li>Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.0% of the index) drove the index’s outperformance, rising 6.2%, while Energy Technology (7.9% of the index) was up 0.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 0.9%.</li>
<li>Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.9x versus 19.5x for the S&amp;P 500.</li>
</ul>


WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended May 19, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 4.4% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.9%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 3.0%).
Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.0% of the index) drove the index’s outperformance, rising 6.2%, while Energy Technology (7.9% of the index) was up 0.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 0.9%.
Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.9x versus 19.5x for the S&amp;P 500.


Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended May 19, 2023

<ul>
<li>During the week ended May 12, 2023, there were four increases (one in Energy Technology, and three in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates.</li>
<li>There were four decreases in 2022 revenue estimates for three companies in Energy Technology, and one company in Advanced Transportation Solutions.</li>
<li>One company in Advanced Transportation Solutions and three companies in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology saw increases in 2022 EPS estimates, while two companies each in Energy Technology and Advanced Transportation Solutions saw decreases in 2022 EPS estimates.</li>
</ul>


During the week ended May 12, 2023, there were four increases (one in Energy Technology, and three in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022 revenue estimates.
There were four decreases in 2022 revenue estimates for three companies in Energy Technology, and one company in Advanced Transportation Solutions.
One company in Advanced Transportation Solutions and three companies in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology saw increases in 2022 EPS estimates, while two companies each in Energy Technology and Advanced Transportation Solutions saw decreases in 2022 EPS estimates.


Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended May 12, 2023

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

United States

The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.

NASDAQ Composite Index (CCMP INDEX)

ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

The AI Boom remains real, but so is deteriorating Macro, extreme SKEW, the MOVE-VIX divergence, and lofty Big Tech valuation.

Jeroen Blokland

Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

No current stock market boom is evident, but concerns arise regarding market breadth and concentration of market value in a few major stocks.

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended May 19, 2023

Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.9x versus 19.5x for the S&P 500.

Water Tower Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended May 12, 2023

During the week ended May 12, 2023, there were four increases (one in Energy Technology, and three in Industrial Climate and Ag Technology) 2022...

Water Tower Research

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...

Vermilion Research