Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

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<ul>
<li>I've long warned 2H this year will mark passing of Tesla's dominance—mainly because the larger EV market is catching up and doing EV better. </li>
<li>Fading China sales &amp; Elon's Twitter mess has been taking it down even faster.</li>
<li>Q4 deliveries are due out next week, and they're likely to be ugly.</li>
</ul>


I've long warned 2H this year will mark passing of Tesla's dominance—mainly because the larger EV market is catching up and doing EV better. 
Fading China sales &amp; Elon's Twitter mess has been taking it down even faster.
Q4 deliveries are due out next week, and they're likely to be ugly.


Stock Picking & Investing, BluSuit

BluSuit

Stock Picking & Investing

Financial markets, high growth & innovative business coverage, macro economics, trading strategy and market insight

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Listening to sentiment alone would lead investors to believe we are 50% down on the S&amp;P 500 and we have another 50% to go.</li><li>But, this simply is not true. When benchmarking the markets recent price action by sector, this bear market, on a technical basis, has the hall marks of every market bottom since 2000.</li><li>Recollecting Howard Marks book, “Mastering the Market Cycle”, there was a particular part that was of importance.</li></ul>

Listening to sentiment alone would lead investors to believe we are 50% down on the S&amp;P 500 and we have another 50% to go.But, this simply is not true. When benchmarking the markets recent price action by sector, this bear market, on a technical basis, has the hall marks of every market bottom since 2000.Recollecting Howard Marks book, “Mastering the Market Cycle”, there was a particular part that was of importance.

<ul><li>This is certainly a macro development that will influence the direction of the markets.</li><li>Essentially, what this means is that the markets are showing “signs of breaking” from the Federal Reserves aggressive tightening cycle.</li><li>Today, we are going to be more focused on market technicals but I wanted to touch briefly on this and will go into more depth this weekend.</li></ul>

This is certainly a macro development that will influence the direction of the markets.Essentially, what this means is that the markets are showing “signs of breaking” from the Federal Reserves aggressive tightening cycle.Today, we are going to be more focused on market technicals but I wanted to touch briefly on this and will go into more depth this weekend.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Coinbase Global  / Equity Capital Markets

Our valuation analysis suggests a range of $31.9 billion to $47.9 billion in market cap for Coinbase. Our base case valuation of Coinbase is $39.9 billion, which is nearly 5x the value the company received in October 2018 ($8 billion) in private funding transaction. However, our base case value of $39.9 billion is nearly 60% lower than the purported recent private market value of <a href="https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$100 billion</a> that Coinbase received recently.
Overall, at an implied market cap value of $100 billion for Coinbase, we think that there is much larger potential downside risk than upside appreciation. As such, we think that the prudent investor should avoid this direct listing of Coinbase if indeed it is priced at nearly $100 billion.

Our valuation analysis suggests a range of $31.9 billion to $47.9 billion in market cap for Coinbase. Our base case valuation of Coinbase is $39.9 billion, which is nearly 5x the value the company received in October 2018 ($8 billion) in private funding transaction. However, our base case value of $39.9 billion is nearly 60% lower than the purported recent private market value of $100 billion that Coinbase received recently.
Overall, at an implied market cap value of $100 billion for Coinbase, we think that there is much larger potential downside risk than upside appreciation. As such, we think that the prudent investor should avoid this direct listing of Coinbase if indeed it is priced at nearly $100 billion. 

Coinbase Direct Listing Valuation Analysis

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Equity Bottom-Up

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> share price and Hong Kong market in general have tumbled significantly after Hong Kong government revealed the proposal to increase stamp duty on stock to 13bps from 10bps for both buy and sell transaction. The change needs to be approved by the HK Legislative Council and enacted as a law for it to be effective. We believe the real impact of stamp duty is at least 6 month away. And the increase of stock stamp duty could effectively alleviate the budget pressure at Hong Kong government due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. </li>
<li>HKEx serves as the only offshore gateway to China capital market. HKEx has consistently enjoyed the superior margin and profitability, given that it can charge higher trading fee rates than other bourses. Chinese companies and investors prefer HKEx as the offshore trading venue. We don't expect this dynamic will change. In our view, HKEx for Chinese ADR listing and expanding business into lucrative derivative trading would be the game changer.  Although the higher stamp duty could moderately increase trading cost, the impact on trading volume will be small. We believe the market has over-reacted in the sell-off. On the contrary, the multi-year strategic transformation of HKEx would be much larger earning driver for upside. We recommend investors to buy HKEx during the pull-back.
</li>
<li>HKEx also reported 4Q20 net income of HK$2,925mn, up 48% year-over-year. FY20 net income of HK$11,505mn is up 23% year-over-year. Both results are above investors' expectation. The beat was largely driven by investment income, partly offset by higher depreciation. HKEX (388 HK) January ADT (Average Daily Turnover) remains very strong, delivering amazing 136% year-over-year growth in the month. We forecast Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (Hong Kong and Stock Connect Northbound) and reiterate HKEx TP HKD 550. 
</li>
</ul>



HKEX (388 HK) share price and Hong Kong market in general have tumbled significantly after Hong Kong government revealed the proposal to increase stamp duty on stock to 13bps from 10bps for both buy and sell transaction. The change needs to be approved by the HK Legislative Council and enacted as a law for it to be effective. We believe the real impact of stamp duty is at least 6 month away. And the increase of stock stamp duty could effectively alleviate the budget pressure at Hong Kong government due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. 
HKEx serves as the only offshore gateway to China capital market. HKEx has consistently enjoyed the superior margin and profitability, given that it can charge higher trading fee rates than other bourses. Chinese companies and investors prefer HKEx as the offshore trading venue. We don't expect this dynamic will change. In our view, HKEx for Chinese ADR listing and expanding business into lucrative derivative trading would be the game changer.  Although the higher stamp duty could moderately increase trading cost, the impact on trading volume will be small. We believe the market has over-reacted in the sell-off. On the contrary, the multi-year strategic transformation of HKEx would be much larger earning driver for upside. We recommend investors to buy HKEx during the pull-back.

HKEx also reported 4Q20 net income of HK$2,925mn, up 48% year-over-year. FY20 net income of HK$11,505mn is up 23% year-over-year. Both results are above investors' expectation. The beat was largely driven by investment income, partly offset by higher depreciation. HKEX (388 HK) January ADT (Average Daily Turnover) remains very strong, delivering amazing 136% year-over-year growth in the month. We forecast Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (Hong Kong and Stock Connect Northbound) and reiterate HKEx TP HKD 550. 



HKEx(388.HK): Transformational Strategy Should Offset the Higher Stamp Duty Fear

United States

Nasdaq, Inc. operates a global stock exchange. The Company provides trading, clearing, exchange technology, regulatory, securities listing, and information services. Nasdaq offers its services worldwide.

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Tesla Q4: Elon's Burning It All Down

I've long warned 2H this year will mark passing of Tesla's dominance—mainly cuz larger EV mkt is catching up & doing EV better. Fading China sales...

Vicki Bryan

We are Not Crashing, It's Just Volatile

When benchmarking the markets recent price action by sector, this bear market, on a technical basis, has the hall marks of every market bottom...

BluSuit

Key Market Technicals

Essentially, what this means is that the markets are showing “signs of breaking” from the Federal Reserves aggressive tightening cycle.

BluSuit

Coinbase Direct Listing Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Coinbase is $39.9 billion, which is 60% lower than the purported recent private market value of $100 billion that...

Douglas Kim

HKEx(388.HK): Transformational Strategy Should Offset the Higher Stamp Duty Fear

HKEx serves as the only offshore gateway to China capital market. We believe the market has over-reacted on higher stamp duty news in the sell...

Roger Xie

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