Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Four stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.</li>
<li>Two of the opportunities involve companies in the same industry and two pairs involve companies in different industries within the same sector.</li>
<li>Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.</li>
</ul>


Four stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.
Two of the opportunities involve companies in the same industry and two pairs involve companies in different industries within the same sector.
Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.


Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac

<ul>
<li>While approximately 80% of pair trades play out according to plan, a small subset of trades fails to produce a trade close signal within the expected timeframe.</li>
<li>This Insight investigates the phenomenon of parameter drift and how to manage its adverse effects.</li>
<li>Analyzing challenging trades provides valuable insights into model behavior, enhancing both risk management and preparedness for future market shifts.</li>
</ul>


While approximately 80% of pair trades play out according to plan, a small subset of trades fails to produce a trade close signal within the expected timeframe.
This Insight investigates the phenomenon of parameter drift and how to manage its adverse effects.
Analyzing challenging trades provides valuable insights into model behavior, enhancing both risk management and preparedness for future market shifts.


When the Model Chases the Price: Lessons from Two Long-Running Pair Trades

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 31st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS, Vicinity Centres Re.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 31st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS, Vicinity Centres Re.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 31st): CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS

<ul>
<li>Six Australian stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.</li>
<li>Upcoming earnings announcements could add volatility and shape short-term trade outcomes.</li>
<li>Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.</li>
</ul>


Six Australian stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.
Upcoming earnings announcements could add volatility and shape short-term trade outcomes.
Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.


Six Fresh Relative Value Opportunities in Australia Signal New Stat Arb Trades

Event-Driven

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's largest banks are due to report within the next four trading days. Collectively, they account for 23% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>A beat or miss of expectations can result in a strong move, up or down. This Insight analyzes options to provide an indication of how big a move to expect.</li>
<li>Option traders price in outsized moves for several but not all banks, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ (ANZ AU)</a> as the largest outlier.</li>
</ul>


Australia's largest banks are due to report within the next four trading days. Collectively, they account for 23% of the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
A beat or miss of expectations can result in a strong move, up or down. This Insight analyzes options to provide an indication of how big a move to expect.
Option traders price in outsized moves for several but not all banks, with ANZ (ANZ AU) as the largest outlier.


Australia’s Big Banks: Options Flash Mixed Signals Ahead of Earnings

Australia

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

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National Australia Bank (NAB AU)

Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac

Three Aussie and one Indian pair show mean-reversion pair trade signals in Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Ideal for quantitative traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

When the Model Chases the Price: Lessons from Two Long-Running Pair Trades

A live example featuring Tencent shows how persistent price moves can cause parameter drift. The case study focuses on mitigation strategies and...

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 31st): CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Six Fresh Relative Value Opportunities in Australia Signal New Stat Arb Trades

Pair trade opportunities arise across top ASX names such as CBA, NAB, Westpac, JB Hi-Fi and Xero as price ratios deviate.

Gaudenz Schneider

Australia’s Big Banks: Options Flash Mixed Signals Ahead of Earnings

Australia’s largest banks report within four trading days, and options pricing offers a snapshot of where volatility could strike — particularly in...

Gaudenz Schneider

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)