Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.</li>
<li>This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.</li>
</ul>


The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.
This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.
Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.


Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

<ul>
<li>Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.</li>
<li>Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.</li>
<li>With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.</li>
</ul>


Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.
Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.
With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.


Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

<ul>
<li>While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback.</li>
<li>Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&amp;P 500 due to a multitude of reasons</li>
<li>We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market</li>
</ul>


While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback.
Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&amp;P 500 due to a multitude of reasons
We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market


Are the Lows "In" For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

<ul>
<li>In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.</li>
<li>The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.</li>
<li>Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. </li>
</ul>


In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.
The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.
Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. 


Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

United States

National Healthcare Corporation operates long-term health care centers.  The Company also operates homecare programs, independent living centers, and assisted living centers.  National Healthcare's other services include managed care specialty medical units, Alzheimer's units, and a rehabilitation services company.

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National Healthcare (NHC US)

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto $MSTR $HOOD $BTDR $COIN and Quantum $QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT) Leading. Bullish outlook intact as long as...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Upgrading Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; New Risk-Off Signals Suggest Pullback in $SPX and $QQQ to Continue, looking for pullbacks to 5100-5191...

Vermilion Research

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Are the Lows "In" For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish (RS for defensives $XLP, $XLU, $XLV below October 2023 lows among many other...

Vermilion Research

Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Small Caps $IWM $VXF Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 $RSP Breakout; U.S. Dollar $DXY Failed Breakout at $104.70;...

Vermilion Research

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