Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>OPEC held its 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts steady. The IEA’s upward revision reflects a catch-up adjustment for 2024, not a fundamental shift in its forward outlook.</li>
<li>The EIA raised its demand growth forecast by 7.8% for 2025 but cut estimates by 13.5% for 2026. Meanwhile, it raised supply forecasts and projected inventory builds for both years.</li>
<li>The EIA expects Henry Hub prices to rise in 2025 and 2026 from current levels, though it revised its 2025 forecast 3.5% lower and lifted 2026 estimates by 4.3%.</li>
</ul>


OPEC held its 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts steady. The IEA’s upward revision reflects a catch-up adjustment for 2024, not a fundamental shift in its forward outlook.
The EIA raised its demand growth forecast by 7.8% for 2025 but cut estimates by 13.5% for 2026. Meanwhile, it raised supply forecasts and projected inventory builds for both years.
The EIA expects Henry Hub prices to rise in 2025 and 2026 from current levels, though it revised its 2025 forecast 3.5% lower and lifted 2026 estimates by 4.3%.


OPEC, EIA, and IEA Deliver Mixed Signals Amid Trade Uncertainty and Oversupply Concerns

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 09/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 3.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2m barrel fall). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 110 Bcf storage build, slightly lower than the 111 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 2.6% above the five-year average.</li>
<li>Saudi Aramco's Q1 profit fell 4.8% YoY but beat estimates by 2.8%. Morgan Stanley downgraded BP to Underweight from Equalweight, while HSBC lowered Chevron to Hold from Buy.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 09/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 3.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2m barrel fall). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell.
The EIA reported a 110 Bcf storage build, slightly lower than the 111 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 2.6% above the five-year average.
Saudi Aramco's Q1 profit fell 4.8% YoY but beat estimates by 2.8%. Morgan Stanley downgraded BP to Underweight from Equalweight, while HSBC lowered Chevron to Hold from Buy.


[ETP 2025/20] WTI Skittish on Trade Hopes and Oversupply Fears; Henry Hub Falls on Tepid Demand

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.</li>
<li>Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.
The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.
Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.


[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.7m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel build). Gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected.</li>
<li>Henry Hub headed for its first weekly gain in five weeks. The EIA reported a 107 Bcf storage build, below the expected 111 Bcf increase.</li>
<li>BP, TotalEnergies, Shell, Exxon, and Chevron saw YoY profit declines, but Shell, Exxon, and Chevron beat EPS estimates, while TotalEnergies and BP fell short of analyst expectations.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.7m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel build). Gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected.
Henry Hub headed for its first weekly gain in five weeks. The EIA reported a 107 Bcf storage build, below the expected 111 Bcf increase.
BP, TotalEnergies, Shell, Exxon, and Chevron saw YoY profit declines, but Shell, Exxon, and Chevron beat EPS estimates, while TotalEnergies and BP fell short of analyst expectations.


[ETP 2025/18] WTI Extends Losses, Henry Hub Rebounds on Summer Demand Optimism

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.</li><li>Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March</li><li>Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.</li></ul>

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of MarchAnother interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

OPEC, EIA, and IEA Deliver Mixed Signals Amid Trade Uncertainty and Oversupply Concerns

OPEC maintains steady demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while IEA and EIA show mixed outlooks with adjustments in supply and prices.

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/20] WTI Skittish on Trade Hopes and Oversupply Fears; Henry Hub Falls on Tepid Demand

US crude inventories rose, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. US nat-gas storage build missed estimates. Aramco's Q1 profit dropped but beat...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/18] WTI Extends Losses, Henry Hub Rebounds on Summer Demand Optimism

US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles dropped, Henry Hub on track for first weekly gain in 5 weeks, major oil companies report YoY profit...

Mint Finance

Sentiment Signal in Gold

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OPEC, EIA, and IEA Deliver Mixed Signals Amid Trade Uncertainty and Oversupply Concerns

​OPEC maintains steady demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while IEA and EIA show mixed outlooks with adjustments in supply and prices.

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/20] WTI Skittish on Trade Hopes and Oversupply Fears; Henry Hub Falls on Tepid Demand

​US crude inventories rose, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. US nat-gas storage build missed estimates. Aramco's Q1 profit dropped but beat...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/18] WTI Extends Losses, Henry Hub Rebounds on Summer Demand Optimism

​US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles dropped, Henry Hub on track for first weekly gain in 5 weeks, major oil companies report YoY profit...

Mint Finance

Sentiment Signal in Gold

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always...

The Commodity Report

OPEC maintains steady demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while IEA and EIA show mixed outlooks with adjustments in supply and prices.

US crude inventories rose, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. US nat-gas storage build missed estimates. Aramco's Q1 profit dropped but beat...

US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles dropped, Henry Hub on track for first weekly gain in 5 weeks, major oil companies report YoY profit...