Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.</li>
<li>Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.</li>
<li>The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.</li>
</ul>


Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.


Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.</li><li>The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.</li><li>FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun '21.</li></ul>

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun '21.

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

<ul>
<li>US natural gas prices rose 6.6% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by rising LNG exports, despite downward pressure from milder winter forecasts.</li>
<li>Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.10 from 1.06 (06/Dec) the previous week as put volumes rose by 21.5% WoW, while call volumes increased by 16.5%. </li>
<li>Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.83 from 0.84 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.4% WoW, while put OI increased by 4.8%.</li>
</ul>


US natural gas prices rose 6.6% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by rising LNG exports, despite downward pressure from milder winter forecasts.
Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.10 from 1.06 (06/Dec) the previous week as put volumes rose by 21.5% WoW, while call volumes increased by 16.5%. 
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.83 from 0.84 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.4% WoW, while put OI increased by 4.8%.


[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/50] Henry Hub Gains as LNG Exports Offset Soft Winter Outlook

<ul>
<li>US natural gas prices dropped 8.5% for the week ending 06/Dec, driven by volatile weather forecasts, which predicted a warmer-than-expected winter.</li>
<li>Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.06 from 1.47 (29/Nov) the previous week as put volumes fell by 20.6% WoW, while call volumes increased by 10.2%. </li>
<li>Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.84 from 0.83 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 6.7%.</li>
</ul>


US natural gas prices dropped 8.5% for the week ending 06/Dec, driven by volatile weather forecasts, which predicted a warmer-than-expected winter.
Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.06 from 1.47 (29/Nov) the previous week as put volumes fell by 20.6% WoW, while call volumes increased by 10.2%. 
Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.84 from 0.83 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 6.7%.


[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/49] Volatile Weather Forecasts Cut Short Henry Hub’s Uptrend

<ul><li>The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.</li><li>These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…</li><li>The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).</li></ul>

The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

US LNG volatility hits 12-month high amid turbulent fundamentals, driving nat-gas prices up 38.2%. Midstream/MLP ETFs shine in 2024 with inflows,...

Mint Finance

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and...

The Commodity Report

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/50] Henry Hub Gains as LNG Exports Offset Soft Winter Outlook

US natural gas prices rose due to increased LNG exports despite milder winter forecasts, with Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio and OI PCR showing...

Mint Finance

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/49] Volatile Weather Forecasts Cut Short Henry Hub’s Uptrend

US natural gas prices fell 8.5% due to warmer winter forecasts. Henry Hub's Put/Call volume ratio dropped to 1.06 from 1.47 as put volume fell...

Mint Finance

Something Is Brewing…

These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

​US LNG volatility hits 12-month high amid turbulent fundamentals, driving nat-gas prices up 38.2%. Midstream/MLP ETFs shine in 2024 with inflows,...

Mint Finance

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and...

The Commodity Report

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/50] Henry Hub Gains as LNG Exports Offset Soft Winter Outlook

​US natural gas prices rose due to increased LNG exports despite milder winter forecasts, with Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio and OI PCR showing...

Mint Finance

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/49] Volatile Weather Forecasts Cut Short Henry Hub’s Uptrend

​US natural gas prices fell 8.5% due to warmer winter forecasts. Henry Hub's Put/Call volume ratio dropped to 1.06 from 1.47 as put volume fell...

Mint Finance

Something Is Brewing…

These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical...

The Commodity Report

US LNG volatility hits 12-month high amid turbulent fundamentals, driving nat-gas prices up 38.2%. Midstream/MLP ETFs shine in 2024 with inflows,...

US natural gas prices rose due to increased LNG exports despite milder winter forecasts, with Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio and OI PCR showing...

US natural gas prices fell 8.5% due to warmer winter forecasts. Henry Hub's Put/Call volume ratio dropped to 1.06 from 1.47 as put volume fell...