Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Commodities

<ul><li>Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.</li><li>While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.</li><li>Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.</li></ul>

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the second consecutive week, as it fell by 4 to 580 for the week ending 17/Jan.</li>
<li>For the week ending 10/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.48 m bpd from 13.56m bpd the week prior.</li>
<li>The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 480 and gas rigs dropped by 2 to 98, U.S. producers cut four rigs in North Dakota.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the second consecutive week, as it fell by 4 to 580 for the week ending 17/Jan.
For the week ending 10/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.48 m bpd from 13.56m bpd the week prior.
The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 480 and gas rigs dropped by 2 to 98, U.S. producers cut four rigs in North Dakota.


U.S. Rig Count Drops to Lowest Since December 2021

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.


[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

<ul>
<li>Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them.</li>
<li>His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is ready to roll out a series of initiatives next week, including those on trade, cryptocurrency, and a range of other topics.</li>
<li>Every counterpart we speak to expects Trump to take action over the course of his presidency but also anticipates him backing down if the market pushes back against tariffs with a stronger USD, higher bond yields, and weaker risk sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them.
His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is ready to roll out a series of initiatives next week, including those on trade, cryptocurrency, and a range of other topics.
Every counterpart we speak to expects Trump to take action over the course of his presidency but also anticipates him backing down if the market pushes back against tariffs with a stronger USD, higher bond yields, and weaker risk sentiment.


The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?

<ul>
<li>The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the first time in six weeks, as it fell by 5 to 584 for the week ending 10/Jan.</li>
<li>For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.56m bpd from 13.57m bpd the week prior.</li>
<li>U.S. oil rig count fell by 2 to 482 while gas rigs dropped by 3 to 100. Producers cut three rigs in Texas and one each from Utah and Colorado.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the first time in six weeks, as it fell by 5 to 584 for the week ending 10/Jan.
For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.56m bpd from 13.57m bpd the week prior.
U.S. oil rig count fell by 2 to 482 while gas rigs dropped by 3 to 100. Producers cut three rigs in Texas and one each from Utah and Colorado.


U.S. Rig Count Drops After Remaining Steady for Four Straight Weeks

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

The Drill: Strap in for Trump

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela. While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely...

Steno Research

U.S. Rig Count Drops to Lowest Since December 2021

US oil and gas rig count falls for second straight week and touches lows last seen in December 2021. Oil and gas rigs drop by two each. US crude...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...

Mint Finance

The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?

Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them. His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is...

Steno Research

U.S. Rig Count Drops After Remaining Steady for Four Straight Weeks

US oil and gas rig count drops for the first time in six weeks, with oil production also slightly decreasing. Number of active U.S. oil and gas...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Drill: Strap in for Trump

Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela. While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely...

Steno Research

U.S. Rig Count Drops to Lowest Since December 2021

​US oil and gas rig count falls for second straight week and touches lows last seen in December 2021. Oil and gas rigs drop by two each. US crude...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...

Mint Finance

The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?

Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them. His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is...

Steno Research

U.S. Rig Count Drops After Remaining Steady for Four Straight Weeks

​US oil and gas rig count drops for the first time in six weeks, with oil production also slightly decreasing. Number of active U.S. oil and gas...

Mint Finance

US oil and gas rig count falls for second straight week and touches lows last seen in December 2021. Oil and gas rigs drop by two each. US crude...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...

US oil and gas rig count drops for the first time in six weeks, with oil production also slightly decreasing. Number of active U.S. oil and gas...