Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Takeaways upfront: No container shipping through Suez towards Europe and price increases ahead; Energy and dry bulk shipping is still alive; Expect transportation and apparel to see price increases in Europe; Hedging 2024 portfolios with long Shipping bets and/or long Energy bets make increasing sense.</li><li>Happy New Year everyone! Things are escalating in the Red Sea as shipping giants such as Maersk and Hapaq-Lloyd haven’t been convinced by the military efforts in the Red Sea and have now completely avoided transporting goods from Asia to Europe through the Red Sea.</li><li>That can be seen in prices which have seen one-way traffic the last week. Freight rates are up &gt;100% this week, and we hear from sources that Maersk is now suggesting an all-in rate of USD 6000 TEU.</li></ul>

Takeaways upfront: No container shipping through Suez towards Europe and price increases ahead; Energy and dry bulk shipping is still alive; Expect transportation and apparel to see price increases in Europe; Hedging 2024 portfolios with long Shipping bets and/or long Energy bets make increasing sense.Happy New Year everyone! Things are escalating in the Red Sea as shipping giants such as Maersk and Hapaq-Lloyd haven’t been convinced by the military efforts in the Red Sea and have now completely avoided transporting goods from Asia to Europe through the Red Sea.That can be seen in prices which have seen one-way traffic the last week. Freight rates are up &gt;100% this week, and we hear from sources that Maersk is now suggesting an all-in rate of USD 6000 TEU.

Suez Watch: Massively Rising Container Freight Rates, While Dry Bulk, LNG and Crude Rates More Muted

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Henry Hub has remained relatively insulated from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, largely due to strong domestic supply and elevated U.S. inventories.</li>
<li>However, simultaneous summer cooling demand across the U.S. and North Asia, coupled with Europe’s urgent storage refill requirements and constrained Qatari LNG flows, could tighten global LNG balances.</li>
<li>While Henry Hub’s exposure to global disruptions remains indirect, sustained LNG export demand and rising domestic power consumption could tighten U.S. gas balances, creating upside risk for Henry Hub prices.</li>
</ul>


Henry Hub has remained relatively insulated from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, largely due to strong domestic supply and elevated U.S. inventories.
However, simultaneous summer cooling demand across the U.S. and North Asia, coupled with Europe’s urgent storage refill requirements and constrained Qatari LNG flows, could tighten global LNG balances.
While Henry Hub’s exposure to global disruptions remains indirect, sustained LNG export demand and rising domestic power consumption could tighten U.S. gas balances, creating upside risk for Henry Hub prices.


How Summer Cooling Demand Could Pull Henry Hub Higher

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Gas inventories in Europe, especially in Germany and Netherlands, are at concerning levels</li><li>European Commission's target for storage is 90% full by 1st of October</li><li>Higher prices needed to incentivize faster injections and attract more spot LNG cargoes</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Gas inventories in Europe, especially in Germany and Netherlands, are at concerning levelsEuropean Commission's target for storage is 90% full by 1st of OctoberHigher prices needed to incentivize faster injections and attract more spot LNG cargoesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Rate hike expectations yo-yoing as the Fed meeting draws closer, impacting many of our themes</li>
<li>Long Japanese Yen starts to work. Now follow through is needed</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Rate hike expectations yo-yoing as the Fed meeting draws closer, impacting many of our themes
Long Japanese Yen starts to work. Now follow through is needed


Overview #76 – The Circus Comes to Town

<ul>
<li>Explosive AI-driven data centre expansion is rapidly increasing U.S. electricity demand, with consumption projected to nearly double by 2030, reshaping long-term power generation dynamics.</li>
<li>Despite aggressive renewable procurement, natural gas remains the backbone of a reliable 24/7 power supply, positioning it as the primary bridge between intermittent renewables and hyperscale energy needs.</li>
<li>While data-centre-driven gas demand will provide incremental price support by 2026, it is unlikely to dominate Henry Hub pricing until later this decade.</li>
</ul>


Explosive AI-driven data centre expansion is rapidly increasing U.S. electricity demand, with consumption projected to nearly double by 2030, reshaping long-term power generation dynamics.
Despite aggressive renewable procurement, natural gas remains the backbone of a reliable 24/7 power supply, positioning it as the primary bridge between intermittent renewables and hyperscale energy needs.
While data-centre-driven gas demand will provide incremental price support by 2026, it is unlikely to dominate Henry Hub pricing until later this decade.


Data Centres: Today’s Cushion, Tomorrow’s Price Driver

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Suez Watch: Massively Rising Container Freight Rates, While Dry Bulk, LNG and Crude Rates More Muted

Takeaways upfront No container shipping through Suez towards Europe and price increases ahead; Energy and dry bulk shipping is still alive...

Steno Research

How Summer Cooling Demand Could Pull Henry Hub Higher

Henry Hub insulated from U.S.-Iran conflict, but global LNG balances tightening could impact prices due to export demand and rising domestic...

Mint Finance

Global Commodities: An Inventory Detour

Overall, there is a concern over low gas inventories in Europe, particularly in Germany and Netherlands, and the need for accelerated injections...

At Any Rate

Overview #76 – The Circus Comes to Town

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the change in rate-hike expectations and what it means for...

Rikki Malik

Data Centres: Today’s Cushion, Tomorrow’s Price Driver

AI-driven data centre expansion is driving a surge in electricity demand, with nat-gas playing a key role. Gas demand will support prices, but...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Suez Watch: Massively Rising Container Freight Rates, While Dry Bulk, LNG and Crude Rates More Muted

Takeaways upfront No container shipping through Suez towards Europe and price increases ahead; Energy and dry bulk shipping is still alive...

Steno Research

How Summer Cooling Demand Could Pull Henry Hub Higher

​Henry Hub insulated from U.S.-Iran conflict, but global LNG balances tightening could impact prices due to export demand and rising domestic...

Mint Finance

Global Commodities: An Inventory Detour

Overall, there is a concern over low gas inventories in Europe, particularly in Germany and Netherlands, and the need for accelerated injections...

At Any Rate

Overview #76 – The Circus Comes to Town

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the change in rate-hike expectations and what it means for...

Rikki Malik

Data Centres: Today’s Cushion, Tomorrow’s Price Driver

​AI-driven data centre expansion is driving a surge in electricity demand, with nat-gas playing a key role. Gas demand will support prices, but...

Mint Finance

Henry Hub insulated from U.S.-Iran conflict, but global LNG balances tightening could impact prices due to export demand and rising domestic...

AI-driven data centre expansion is driving a surge in electricity demand, with nat-gas playing a key role. Gas demand will support prices, but...