European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 50.1%; GBL, 40.5% (!); Heineken Holding, 16.0%; Industrivärden C, 5.2%; Investor B, 11.6%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 45.1%. </li>
<li>The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 17.2%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 50.1%; GBL, 40.5% (!); Heineken Holding, 16.0%; Industrivärden C, 5.2%; Investor B, 11.6%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 45.1%. 
The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 17.2%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.
Recommended trades: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May’23 Report

Equity Bottom-Up

Naturgy Energy Group SA / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P has raised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a>'s credit outlook from negative to stable considering that the company may not finally carry out the Gemini spin-off project.</li>
<li>Naturgy's shares do not trade on fundamentals, rather on expectations that IFM tries to increase its stake (free float is just 15%). There's some potential overhang risk though.</li>
<li>IFM has not acquired any significant stake since April, but I would not short the shares as IFM could resume share purchases on an opportunistic basis.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P has raised Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)'s credit outlook from negative to stable considering that the company may not finally carry out the Gemini spin-off project.
Naturgy's shares do not trade on fundamentals, rather on expectations that IFM tries to increase its stake (free float is just 15%). There's some potential overhang risk though.
IFM has not acquired any significant stake since April, but I would not short the shares as IFM could resume share purchases on an opportunistic basis.


Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during April. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 51.3%; GBL, 32.3%; Heineken Holding, 16.4%; Industrivärden C, 7.7%; Investor B, 9.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 49.7%. </li>
<li>The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 16.8%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: Heineken Holding, Investor AB (long Investor B/short main holdings) and Rio DLC.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during April. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 51.3%; GBL, 32.3%; Heineken Holding, 16.4%; Industrivärden C, 7.7%; Investor B, 9.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 49.7%. 
The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 16.8%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.
Recommended trades: Heineken Holding, Investor AB (long Investor B/short main holdings) and Rio DLC.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April’23 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Global Healthcare ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.</li>
<li>MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
<li>This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe</li>
</ul>


As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe


Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have shown mixed performance during March, with spreads widening until short after the UBS/CS deal, now tightening. </li>
<li>Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 51.2%; GBL, 35.8%; Heineken Holding, 14.6%; Industrivärden C, 11.1%; Investor B, 9.7%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 49.6%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 18.9%.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: Heineken Holding, Investor AB (long Investor B/short main holdings) and Rio DLC.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have shown mixed performance during March, with spreads widening until short after the UBS/CS deal, now tightening. 
Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 51.2%; GBL, 35.8%; Heineken Holding, 14.6%; Industrivärden C, 11.1%; Investor B, 9.7%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 49.6%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 18.9%.
Recommended trades: Heineken Holding, Investor AB (long Investor B/short main holdings) and Rio DLC.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March'23 Report

Spain

Naturgy Energy Group S.A. distributes natural gas. The Company operates gas storage facilities, as well as owns and operates a fiber optic backbone telecommunications networks. Naturgy Energy Group also markets energy management products, household gas appliances, and installs gas heating systems. Naturgy Energy serves clients worldwide.

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Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. The discount to NAV of GBL has reached a very high level, in my view. That...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Gemini Postponed Sine Die

Standard & Poor's has raised Naturgy's credit outlook from negative to stable given the possibility that the company will not finally carry out the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April’23 Report

Discounts to Net Asset Value of covered holdcos generally tightened during April, although some remained at the same levels. Rio DLC tightened.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

We have recommended shifting to defensives throughout Feb/March due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on $ACWI. We highlight buys within...

Vermilion Research

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March'23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have shown mixed performance during March, with spreads sharply widening until short after the UBS/CS deal, now...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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