European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have shown mixed performance during March, with spreads widening until short after the UBS/CS deal, now tightening. </li>
<li>Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 51.2%; GBL, 35.8%; Heineken Holding, 14.6%; Industrivärden C, 11.1%; Investor B, 9.7%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 49.6%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 18.9%.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: Heineken Holding, Investor AB (long Investor B/short main holdings) and Rio DLC.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have shown mixed performance during March, with spreads widening until short after the UBS/CS deal, now tightening. 
Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 51.2%; GBL, 35.8%; Heineken Holding, 14.6%; Industrivärden C, 11.1%; Investor B, 9.7%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 49.6%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 18.9%.
Recommended trades: Heineken Holding, Investor AB (long Investor B/short main holdings) and Rio DLC.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March'23 Report

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during February. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 53.2%; GBL, 34.9%; Heineken Holding, 16.1%; Industrivärden C, 10.6%; </li>
<li>Investor B, 11.2%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 50.5%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 12.6%. Spreads tend to tighten in favourable market conditions.</li>
<li>Recommended trades are: GBL, Heineken Holding, Porsche Automobile Holding, and possibly CF Alba (long).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during February. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 53.2%; GBL, 34.9%; Heineken Holding, 16.1%; Industrivärden C, 10.6%; 
Investor B, 11.2%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 50.5%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 12.6%. Spreads tend to tighten in favourable market conditions.
Recommended trades are: GBL, Heineken Holding, Porsche Automobile Holding, and possibly CF Alba (long).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: February‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Discounts to NAV (31 January): C.F.Alba, 49.7%; GBL, 35.3%; Heineken Holding, 17.4%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 11.4%; </li>
<li>Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 14.8%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts.</li>
<li>Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Discounts to NAV (31 January): C.F.Alba, 49.7%; GBL, 35.3%; Heineken Holding, 17.4%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 11.4%; 
Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 14.8%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts.
Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: January‘23 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Given the likelihood of more buybacks and pressure on capital allocation and structuring of the renewable energy business, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy (5021 JP)</a> is more of a buy than a sell.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> is a tricky beast to analyze. A key issue for investors is valuing Olam, ex- Olam Agri, ex- OFI.</li>
<li>Unloved as it is, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> is still cheap. </li>
</ul>


Given the likelihood of more buybacks and pressure on capital allocation and structuring of the renewable energy business, Cosmo Energy (5021 JP) is more of a buy than a sell.

Olam Group (OLG SP) is a tricky beast to analyze. A key issue for investors is valuing Olam, ex- Olam Agri, ex- OFI.
Unloved as it is, Yamada Denki (9831 JP) is still cheap. 


Last Week In SPACE: Cosmo, Olam, Yamada Denki, Jardine Cycle/Astra, Tianneng Power/Battery, Fujitsu

<ul>
<li>Australian institutional investor IFM has informed the Spanish National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) that it has increased its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a> to just over 14%.</li>
<li>Corporate politics: IFM is still far from the 17% threshold that would grant two sits on the Board of Naturgy (and the initial minimum acceptance condition in the partial offer).</li>
<li>Speculative buy (TP €27.42, DCF-based). IFM's intention of increasing its stake may continue to drive up the share price.</li>
</ul>


Australian institutional investor IFM has informed the Spanish National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) that it has increased its stake in Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM) to just over 14%.
Corporate politics: IFM is still far from the 17% threshold that would grant two sits on the Board of Naturgy (and the initial minimum acceptance condition in the partial offer).
Speculative buy (TP €27.42, DCF-based). IFM's intention of increasing its stake may continue to drive up the share price.


Spain

Naturgy Energy Group S.A. distributes natural gas. The Company operates gas storage facilities, as well as owns and operates a fiber optic backbone telecommunications networks. Naturgy Energy Group also markets energy management products, household gas appliances, and installs gas heating systems. Naturgy Energy serves clients worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March'23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have shown mixed performance during March, with spreads sharply widening until short after the UBS/CS deal, now...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: February‘23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during February. Recommended trades are: GBL, Heineken Holding, Porsche Automobile...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: January‘23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In SPACE: Cosmo, Olam, Yamada Denki, Jardine Cycle/Astra, Tianneng Power/Battery, Fujitsu

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

IFM Increases Its Stake in Naturgy

After a year lull, IFM has resumed purchasing shares of Naturgy, after almost a year since the last disclosures. IFM has notified that it already...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)