APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (GUM HK)</a> is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.</li>
<li>Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.</li>
<li>In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.


Guming Holdings IPO - Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (GUM HK)</a> (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/guming-holdings-good-me-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:173217" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on under-pressure store KPIs, unsustainable historical growth rates, declining contract liabilities, margin pressure due to competition and a sizeable pre-IPO dividend.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports.
In Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on under-pressure store KPIs, unsustainable historical growth rates, declining contract liabilities, margin pressure due to competition and a sizeable pre-IPO dividend.


Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (GUM HK)</a> (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports. </li>
<li>Guming is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand and the second largest freshly-made brand across all price ranges, regarding GMV in 2023.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a rising market share, strong franchisee profitability, top-tier revenue growth, high margins, cash generation and a strong balance sheet. </li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports. 
Guming is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand and the second largest freshly-made brand across all price ranges, regarding GMV in 2023.
The bull case rests on a rising market share, strong franchisee profitability, top-tier revenue growth, high margins, cash generation and a strong balance sheet. 


Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Due to intense competition, freshly-made beverage market has shown signs of saturation after rapid growth in previous years. Guming is currently in a bottleneck period. Future performance growth will decline.</li>
<li>Due to a decrease in consumption, we have seen the price war in this industry. We think Guming’s profit margin performance will decline in the future if it reduces prices.</li>
<li>Guming’s valuation should be higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)</a> due to larger revenue scale/higher net profit margin, but lower than MIXUE.</li>
</ul>


Due to intense competition, freshly-made beverage market has shown signs of saturation after rapid growth in previous years. Guming is currently in a bottleneck period. Future performance growth will decline.
Due to a decrease in consumption, we have seen the price war in this industry. We think Guming’s profit margin performance will decline in the future if it reduces prices.
Guming’s valuation should be higher than Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) and Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) due to larger revenue scale/higher net profit margin, but lower than MIXUE.


Pre-IPO Guming Holdings (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (GUM HK)</a> (Guming) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we had looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Guming) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
In our earlier notes, we had looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.


Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

China

Naisnow, formerly Nayuki Holdings Ltd., is an investment holding company that operates a chain of teahouses in the People's Republic of China. It sells freshly made tea drinks, baked goods, and other products under its flagship brand Nayuki and sub-brand Tai Gai. The company also provides store operations management, supply chain management, and franchise operations. Nayuki Holdings Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

Price Gauge
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Naisnow (2150 HK)

Guming Holdings IPO - Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.

Clarence Chu

Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on under-pressure store KPIs, unsustainable historical growth rates, declining contract liabilities, margin pressure due to...

Arun George

Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a rising market share, strong franchisee profitability, top-tier revenue growth, high margins, cash generation and a strong...

Arun George

Pre-IPO Guming Holdings (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Intense competition/saturation in beverage market have put Guming in a bottleneck period, with future growth to decline. Profit margin will drop...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Guming) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and...

Clarence Chu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Guming Holdings IPO - Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.

Clarence Chu

Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on under-pressure store KPIs, unsustainable historical growth rates, declining contract liabilities, margin pressure due to...

Arun George

Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a rising market share, strong franchisee profitability, top-tier revenue growth, high margins, cash generation and a strong...

Arun George

Pre-IPO Guming Holdings (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Intense competition/saturation in beverage market have put Guming in a bottleneck period, with future growth to decline. Profit margin will drop...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Guming) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and...

Clarence Chu

Intense competition/saturation in beverage market have put Guming in a bottleneck period, with future growth to decline. Profit margin will drop...