HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.</li>
<li>If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.</li>
<li>If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.</li>
</ul>


Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.
If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.
If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.


Chagee Holdings - Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chagee-holdings-cha-us-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:181653" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chagee-holdings-cha-us-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:182085" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case and Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.</li>
<li>It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.
It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.


Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>  is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.</li>
<li>It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.


Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chagee-holdings-cha-us-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:181653" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, signs of margin pressure, increasing S&amp;M expenses and weakening forward growth indicators.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
In Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, signs of margin pressure, increasing S&amp;M expenses and weakening forward growth indicators.


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case

Hong Kong

Nayuki Holdings Limited operates as a holding compnay. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and retails tea and bakery products. Nayuki serves customers in China.

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Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)

Chagee Holdings - Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

Chagee aims for US IPO to boost valuation, but tariff war is a big surprise.Market value may reach $10.8bn if internationalization succeeds, but...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

Chagee is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing and how it's valued relative to peers.

Nicholas Tan

Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

Chagee, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we discuss the company's...

Nicholas Tan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, signs of margin pressure, increasing S&M expenses and weakening forward growth...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Chagee Holdings - Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

​Chagee aims for US IPO to boost valuation, but tariff war is a big surprise.Market value may reach $10.8bn if internationalization succeeds, but...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

Chagee is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing and how it's valued relative to peers.

Nicholas Tan

Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

Chagee, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we discuss the company's...

Nicholas Tan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, signs of margin pressure, increasing S&M expenses and weakening forward growth...

Arun George

Chagee aims for US IPO to boost valuation, but tariff war is a big surprise.Market value may reach $10.8bn if internationalization succeeds, but...