IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177152" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177307" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case and MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case. 
There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>'s IPO price of HK$202.5 looks attractive, as it is priced at 16.6x FY24 and 13.5x FY25 PER, below the mainland China peer average. </li>
<li>We estimate a P/B of 4.6x, putting it marginally lower than the sector best-fit line. We think there is potential for at least a 20-30% upside after the IPO. </li>
<li>MIXUE offers the possibility to participate in the spin-off of its overseas businesses in the medium term, which is explicitly spelt out as a plan.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK)'s IPO price of HK$202.5 looks attractive, as it is priced at 16.6x FY24 and 13.5x FY25 PER, below the mainland China peer average. 
We estimate a P/B of 4.6x, putting it marginally lower than the sector best-fit line. We think there is potential for at least a 20-30% upside after the IPO. 
MIXUE offers the possibility to participate in the spin-off of its overseas businesses in the medium term, which is explicitly spelt out as a plan.


MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177152" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&amp;D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.   </li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
In MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&amp;D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.   


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 29 adds and 41 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 505.</li>
<li>We expect 27 of the 29 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect from the open on 10 March while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> should be added in May.</li>
<li>We expect 28 of the 41 HSCI deletions will be removed from Stock Connect and there has been increased Southbound holding in a lot of the stock this calendar year.</li>
</ul>


There are 29 adds and 41 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 505.
We expect 27 of the 29 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect from the open on 10 March while Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) should be added in May.
We expect 28 of the 41 HSCI deletions will be removed from Stock Connect and there has been increased Southbound holding in a lot of the stock this calendar year.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 41 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO. </li>
<li>According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation. </li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO. 
According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.
The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation. 


Hong Kong

Nayuki Holdings Limited operates as a holding compnay. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and retails tea and bakery products. Nayuki serves customers in China.

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Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 41 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 29 adds/ 41 deletes for the HSCI in March. We expect 27 inclusions and 28 deletions for Southbound Stock Connect. There are big holdings...

Brian Freitas

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

​MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 41 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 29 adds/ 41 deletes for the HSCI in March. We expect 27 inclusions and 28 deletions for Southbound Stock Connect. There are big holdings...

Brian Freitas

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...