Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
 Election victory solidifies reflationary agenda: Polls project decisive 300+ seat supermajority for Takaichi's coalition, enabling aggressive fiscal expansion. Equities trade near records; exporters and industrial policy beneficiaries poised to gain.</li>
<li>
 Power generation emerges as critical bottleneck: AI capex cycles constrained by grid capacity, not capital. Record order intake from infrastructure players signals urgent demand for electrification.</li>
<li>
 Global software rout spares few in Japan: Software stocks have plummeted 15%+ globally, with Japanese names also hit hard. This divergence underscores importance of diversified sector selection as AI matures.</li>
</ul>



 Election victory solidifies reflationary agenda: Polls project decisive 300+ seat supermajority for Takaichi's coalition, enabling aggressive fiscal expansion. Equities trade near records; exporters and industrial policy beneficiaries poised to gain.

 Power generation emerges as critical bottleneck: AI capex cycles constrained by grid capacity, not capital. Record order intake from infrastructure players signals urgent demand for electrification.

 Global software rout spares few in Japan: Software stocks have plummeted 15%+ globally, with Japanese names also hit hard. This divergence underscores importance of diversified sector selection as AI matures.


Japan Strategy Weekly | Takaichi's Landslide Mandate Arrives

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Amazon down -11% AH after its capex guidance seen as unjustified in light of earnings.</li>
<li>ARM makes a surprise turn around on DC upside...watch Softbank.</li>
<li>Estee lauder -19% with numbers not good enough to justify rally. -ve Kose and Shiseido.</li>
</ul>


Amazon down -11% AH after its capex guidance seen as unjustified in light of earnings.
ARM makes a surprise turn around on DC upside...watch Softbank.
Estee lauder -19% with numbers not good enough to justify rally. -ve Kose and Shiseido.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-Off Mood Continues, but Semi-Caps Pick up After Google Capex Surprise

<ul>
<li>Nintendo numbers missed although firm doesn't see impact from higher memory prices this year.</li>
<li>Ibiden to invest Y500bn in new production facilities to capture AI demand.</li>
<li>Defense names should rally after US shoots down an Iranian drone.</li>
</ul>


Nintendo numbers missed although firm doesn't see impact from higher memory prices this year.
Ibiden to invest Y500bn in new production facilities to capture AI demand.
Defense names should rally after US shoots down an Iranian drone.


Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

<ul>
<li>Intel CEO points to 14A gaining traction positive for JP suppliers Ibiden, TEL and Lasertec.</li>
<li>PM Takaichi snap election sends JGB yields to highest since late 90's and yen tumbling to intervention zone.</li>
<li>Nintendo sell off on memory concerns looks overdone with several mild upside catalysts in the next months.</li>
</ul>


Intel CEO points to 14A gaining traction positive for JP suppliers Ibiden, TEL and Lasertec.
PM Takaichi snap election sends JGB yields to highest since late 90's and yen tumbling to intervention zone.
Nintendo sell off on memory concerns looks overdone with several mild upside catalysts in the next months.


Japan Morning Connection: Software Takes a Hit with AI Worries Resurfacing

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Sentiment in Japan has reversed sharply showing strains in the JPY and JGB markets.  The Nikkei 225 has retraced all its gains since the election of Prime Minister Takaichi.</li>
<li>The market is nervous about the size of Takaichi's economic package, which will be ¥21.3 trillion; 27%. more than her predecessor pledged. It will increase bond issuance substantially.</li>
<li>Tensions from Takaichi's provocation of China show no sign of easing.  China has started economic and other measures to respond. The US has removed a missile launcher from Japan.</li>
</ul>


Sentiment in Japan has reversed sharply showing strains in the JPY and JGB markets.  The Nikkei 225 has retraced all its gains since the election of Prime Minister Takaichi.
The market is nervous about the size of Takaichi's economic package, which will be ¥21.3 trillion; 27%. more than her predecessor pledged. It will increase bond issuance substantially.
Tensions from Takaichi's provocation of China show no sign of easing.  China has started economic and other measures to respond. The US has removed a missile launcher from Japan.


Japan: The New Takaichi Trade, SELL THE RIP!

Japan

NEC Corporation manufactures and markets computers, telecommunication equipment, electronic devices, semiconductors, and software.  The Company's products include printers, modems, cellular phones, plasma display panels (PDP), network systems, memory, integrated circuits (IC), thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD), and printed circuit boards (PCB). NEC operates worldwide.

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NEC Corp (6701 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Takaichi's Landslide Mandate Arrives

Election victory boosts reflationary agenda; power generation bottleneck hinders AI capex; global software rout hits Japanese stocks hard.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-Off Mood Continues, but Semi-Caps Pick up After Google Capex Surprise

The market has been quick to punish lavish spending on AI. Qualcomm's statement about the shortage of memory chips will be negative for names...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

Software-related weak after Anthropic announced an AI tool that could fully replace existing products. Excessive weakness of Nintendo offers a...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Software Takes a Hit with AI Worries Resurfacing

Excessive sell-off of Nintendo may pose an opportunity to buy. Sumitomo Forestry expected to push higher after Mizuho upgraded to buy overnight.

Andrew Jackson

Japan: The New Takaichi Trade, SELL THE RIP!

Sentiment in Japan has reversed sharply showing strains in the JPY and JGB markets. The Nikkei 225 has retraced all its gains since the election...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Takaichi's Landslide Mandate Arrives

​Election victory boosts reflationary agenda; power generation bottleneck hinders AI capex; global software rout hits Japanese stocks hard.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-Off Mood Continues, but Semi-Caps Pick up After Google Capex Surprise

The market has been quick to punish lavish spending on AI. Qualcomm's statement about the shortage of memory chips will be negative for names...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

Software-related weak after Anthropic announced an AI tool that could fully replace existing products. Excessive weakness of Nintendo offers a...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Software Takes a Hit with AI Worries Resurfacing

Excessive sell-off of Nintendo may pose an opportunity to buy. Sumitomo Forestry expected to push higher after Mizuho upgraded to buy overnight.

Andrew Jackson

Japan: The New Takaichi Trade, SELL THE RIP!

Sentiment in Japan has reversed sharply showing strains in the JPY and JGB markets. The Nikkei 225 has retraced all its gains since the election...

David Mudd

Election victory boosts reflationary agenda; power generation bottleneck hinders AI capex; global software rout hits Japanese stocks hard.