Owner and CEO, GR20 Research

Gregory Ramirez

Owner and CEO

Industry Research and Consulting Services

GR20 Research

GR20 Research provides industry research and consulting services

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nemetschek guides to 14–15% revenue growth and 32–33% EBITDA margin, with a more confident tone driven by stabilising end markets, limited geopolitical exposure, and continued visibility on mid-single-digit medium-term growth.   </li>
<li>Double-Digit growth in Design is supported by subscription transition contracts, &gt;20% growth in Build is driven by international expansion and Bluebeam Max, while Media recovery is supported by diversification.   </li>
<li>Nemetschek is scaling a platform-wide, agent-based AI strategy. AI is expected to drive ARPU uplift and cross-brand synergies, with monetisation evolving towards hybrid subscription + usage models.</li>
</ul>


Nemetschek guides to 14–15% revenue growth and 32–33% EBITDA margin, with a more confident tone driven by stabilising end markets, limited geopolitical exposure, and continued visibility on mid-single-digit medium-term growth.   
Double-Digit growth in Design is supported by subscription transition contracts, &gt;20% growth in Build is driven by international expansion and Bluebeam Max, while Media recovery is supported by diversification.   
Nemetschek is scaling a platform-wide, agent-based AI strategy. AI is expected to drive ARPU uplift and cross-brand synergies, with monetisation evolving towards hybrid subscription + usage models.


Nemetschek (NEM GR): Maturing the AI Roadmap

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>European software revenue growth slowed to 4.4% in Q1 2026, mainly due to tough comparatives, contract timing and company-specific issues. Large-cap vendors remained resilient, with solid growth and improving momentum. </li>
<li>North American software companies outperformed Europe, with like-for-like revenue growth recovering to 13.1% and reaching 24.3% among the ten largest firms, driven by cloud, cybersecurity and AI demand.  </li>
<li>Software M&amp;A accelerated in 2026, reaching USD 127bn by early June. Landmark deals and strong valuation multiples, especially in cybersecurity and AI, reflected sustained investor appetite.</li>
</ul>


European software revenue growth slowed to 4.4% in Q1 2026, mainly due to tough comparatives, contract timing and company-specific issues. Large-cap vendors remained resilient, with solid growth and improving momentum. 
North American software companies outperformed Europe, with like-for-like revenue growth recovering to 13.1% and reaching 24.3% among the ten largest firms, driven by cloud, cybersecurity and AI demand.  
Software M&amp;A accelerated in 2026, reaching USD 127bn by early June. Landmark deals and strong valuation multiples, especially in cybersecurity and AI, reflected sustained investor appetite.


European Software: Q1 2026 Takeaways – A Seasonal Slowdown

<ul>
<li>In Q2 2025, European software firms—particularly small caps—experienced a slowdown in revenue growth due to geopolitical uncertainty and US tariffs, while large-cap players remained resilient and even accelerated growth.   </li>
<li>US software continued to outperform European peers, with strong momentum driven by AI, cybersecurity, and digital banking, but growth is stabilising below the high levels of the low-interest rate era.   </li>
<li>Software M&amp;A is recovering strongly in 2025, with USD 111bn in deals closed year-to-date—driven mainly by strategic buyers. Private equity remains active, particularly in Europe, though below historical peaks.</li>
</ul>


In Q2 2025, European software firms—particularly small caps—experienced a slowdown in revenue growth due to geopolitical uncertainty and US tariffs, while large-cap players remained resilient and even accelerated growth.   
US software continued to outperform European peers, with strong momentum driven by AI, cybersecurity, and digital banking, but growth is stabilising below the high levels of the low-interest rate era.   
Software M&amp;A is recovering strongly in 2025, with USD 111bn in deals closed year-to-date—driven mainly by strategic buyers. Private equity remains active, particularly in Europe, though below historical peaks.


European Software: Q2 2025 Takeaways – Europe Weakens, but Not the Large Players

<ul>
<li>Software companies see a slow improvement in revenue growth, with Europe narrowing the performance gap. However, growth remains below post-lockdown levels, and a return to high double-digit rates is unlikely.  </li>
<li>The best-performing vendors are those focused on defence, large-scale data handling, AI infrastructure, cybersecurity, financial services digitisation, and modern accounting platforms. US firms still lead in absolute growth numbers.   </li>
<li>While the number of software M&amp;A deals above USD 200m has declined, total deal value is on track for a record year in 2025, driven primarily by strategic acquirers.</li>
</ul>


Software companies see a slow improvement in revenue growth, with Europe narrowing the performance gap. However, growth remains below post-lockdown levels, and a return to high double-digit rates is unlikely.  
The best-performing vendors are those focused on defence, large-scale data handling, AI infrastructure, cybersecurity, financial services digitisation, and modern accounting platforms. US firms still lead in absolute growth numbers.   
While the number of software M&amp;A deals above USD 200m has declined, total deal value is on track for a record year in 2025, driven primarily by strategic acquirers.


European Software: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Gradual Improvement

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.</li>
<li>We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.
We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

Germany

Nemetschek SE provides standard software for designing, constructing and managing buildings and real estate. The Company offers software which provides cost estimation, design, planning, account calculation, cost management, facilities management, document management and B2B e-commerce capabilities. Nemetschek distributes its products around the world.

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Nemetschek SE (NEM GR)

Nemetschek (NEM GR): Maturing the AI Roadmap

Nemetschek expects strong revenue growth and EBITDA margin, driven by stable markets, international expansion, and AI strategy for increased ARPU...

Gregory Ramirez

European Software: Q1 2026 Takeaways – A Seasonal Slowdown

European software revenue growth slowed in Q1 2026, while North American companies outperformed with strong growth driven by cloud, cybersecurity,...

Gregory Ramirez

European Software: Q2 2025 Takeaways – Europe Weakens, but Not the Large Players

European software firms face revenue growth slowdown in Q2 2025, while US software outperforms. Software M&A is recovering strongly with USD 111bn...

Gregory Ramirez

European Software: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Gradual Improvement

Software companies in Europe are closing the revenue growth gap with the US. M&A deals above $200m are declining, but total deal value is set for...

Gregory Ramirez

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nemetschek (NEM GR): Maturing the AI Roadmap

​Nemetschek expects strong revenue growth and EBITDA margin, driven by stable markets, international expansion, and AI strategy for increased ARPU...

Gregory Ramirez

European Software: Q1 2026 Takeaways – A Seasonal Slowdown

​European software revenue growth slowed in Q1 2026, while North American companies outperformed with strong growth driven by cloud, cybersecurity,...

Gregory Ramirez

European Software: Q2 2025 Takeaways – Europe Weakens, but Not the Large Players

​European software firms face revenue growth slowdown in Q2 2025, while US software outperforms. Software M&A is recovering strongly with USD 111bn...

Gregory Ramirez

European Software: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Gradual Improvement

​Software companies in Europe are closing the revenue growth gap with the US. M&A deals above $200m are declining, but total deal value is set for...

Gregory Ramirez

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Nemetschek expects strong revenue growth and EBITDA margin, driven by stable markets, international expansion, and AI strategy for increased ARPU...

European software revenue growth slowed in Q1 2026, while North American companies outperformed with strong growth driven by cloud, cybersecurity,...

European software firms face revenue growth slowdown in Q2 2025, while US software outperforms. Software M&A is recovering strongly with USD 111bn...

Software companies in Europe are closing the revenue growth gap with the US. M&A deals above $200m are declining, but total deal value is set for...