Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/confluent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33443:1" rel="noopener">Confluent (CFLT US)</a>  is an American-based data infrastructure software company and a major contributor to the open-source project Apache Kafka. </li>
<li>Original creators of Apache Kafka founded the company in 2014. Today, Kafka has 5M+ lifetime downloads, and &gt;100,000 organizations use the successful open source project.</li>
<li>We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/confluent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33443:1" rel="noopener">Confluent (CFLT US)</a>  is uniquely positioned to benefit from the widespread adoption of Apache Kafka and the growing $50B+ total addressable market. </li>
</ul>



Confluent (CFLT US)  is an American-based data infrastructure software company and a major contributor to the open-source project Apache Kafka. 
Original creators of Apache Kafka founded the company in 2014. Today, Kafka has 5M+ lifetime downloads, and &gt;100,000 organizations use the successful open source project.
We believe Confluent (CFLT US)  is uniquely positioned to benefit from the widespread adoption of Apache Kafka and the growing $50B+ total addressable market. 


Confluent: Harnessing Data In Motion. Initiate At Overweight

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/splunk-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12849:1" rel="noopener">Splunk Inc (SPLK US)</a> , a leading American provider of machine-generated data platform and established software vendor, announced strong 1QFY23 earnings results. </li>
<li>Total revenues grew to $674M, up 34% YoY, the highest revenue growth rate for the last 3 years. Cloud revenues jumped by 66%, reflecting customer adoption of the cloud platform.</li>
<li>WSJ reported that Cisco made a <strong>$20B</strong>+ takeover offer for Splunk. However, no deal was on the table, but if talks resume, Cisco could pay $20B+, according to The NYT.   </li>
</ul>



Splunk Inc (SPLK US) , a leading American provider of machine-generated data platform and established software vendor, announced strong 1QFY23 earnings results. 
Total revenues grew to $674M, up 34% YoY, the highest revenue growth rate for the last 3 years. Cloud revenues jumped by 66%, reflecting customer adoption of the cloud platform.
WSJ reported that Cisco made a $20B+ takeover offer for Splunk. However, no deal was on the table, but if talks resume, Cisco could pay $20B+, according to The NYT.   


1QFY23 Revenue Growth Accelerated As Cloud-Driven Transformation Goes Well

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (6608 HK)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p><p>Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.</p></div>

Bairong (6608 HK) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (1569395D CH)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. Biarong will commence trading on Wednesday, 31 March. Bairong priced its IPO at HK$31.80 and <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/2920642/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E7%99%BE%E8%9E%8D%E9%9B%B2%E5%89%B56608%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E6%BD%9B%E6%B0%B4%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E8%9D%951400%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened around -9% lower</a> at HK$29 in the grey market. The poor grey market performance is perhaps unsurprisingly in light of the choppy market conditions and declining market sentiment on Chinese tech names. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-ipo-initiation-creditworthy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49249" rel="noopener">Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy</a>, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bairong-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49418" rel="noopener">Bairong IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is reasonable.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$35.79 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price remains reasonable and the grey market factors in conservative market share and margin forecasts. For investors with a longer-term horizon, we think that the grey market price represents good value. </p></div></div></div>

Bairong (1569395D CH) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. Biarong will commence trading on Wednesday, 31 March. Bairong priced its IPO at HK$31.80 and opened around -9% lower at HK$29 in the grey market. The poor grey market performance is perhaps unsurprisingly in light of the choppy market conditions and declining market sentiment on Chinese tech names. In Bairong IPO Initiation: Creditworthy, we opined that the good 4Q20 revenue growth exit rate points to recovery. We noted that Bairong has the potential to combine solid growth with profitability and cash generation. We concluded that Bairong is worth a closer look. In Bairong IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is reasonable.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$35.79 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price remains reasonable and the grey market factors in conservative market share and margin forecasts. For investors with a longer-term horizon, we think that the grey market price represents good value. 

United States

New Relic, Inc. provides cloud based application performance management solutions for cloud and data center applications. The Company offers a solution including real user, application, and availability monitoring features that enable developers and operations teams to manage web application performance in real-time. New Relic conducts its business in the United States.

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New Relic Inc (NEWR US)

Confluent: Harnessing Data In Motion. Initiate At Overweight

We are initiating coverage on Confluent with an Overweight rating and price target of $28, implying a ~50% upside. Fundamentals remain attractive,...

Andrei Zakharov

1QFY23 Revenue Growth Accelerated As Cloud-Driven Transformation Goes Well

Cloud ARR growth has accelerated, and we expect Splunk shares may outperform Nasdaq Composite and publicly listed peers in 2022

Andrei Zakharov

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

Bairong: Upcoming Lock-Up Expiry

Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential...

Arun George

Bairong IPO: Trading Debut

Bairong priced its IPO at HK$31.80 and opened around -9% lower at HK$29 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market...

Arun George

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