Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the impact of rate hike to Asia real estate, with recent capital flow and underlying drivers.  We recommended SHORT NWD, LINK, and LONG JHR, Keppel DC and Embassy</li>
<li>Inflation-Hedged assets, including Japanese hospitality and supply-constrained sectors like Singapore data centers, remain the undisputed winners for institutional capital in this newly confirmed tightening cycle.</li>
<li>Distress is creating generational entry points, as rising base rates push over-leveraged legacy developers into insurmountable refinancing walls, perfectly positioning pristine balance sheets to capitalize.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the impact of rate hike to Asia real estate, with recent capital flow and underlying drivers.  We recommended SHORT NWD, LINK, and LONG JHR, Keppel DC and Embassy
Inflation-Hedged assets, including Japanese hospitality and supply-constrained sectors like Singapore data centers, remain the undisputed winners for institutional capital in this newly confirmed tightening cycle.
Distress is creating generational entry points, as rising base rates push over-leveraged legacy developers into insurmountable refinancing walls, perfectly positioning pristine balance sheets to capitalize.


The Rate Hike and Capital Flow: 5 Conviction Trades in Asian Real Estate

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I don't deliberately set out to knock <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a></strong>; just that the newsflow/headlines speak volumes.</li>
<li>Apparently, after months of negotiation, Blackstone has walked away from a proposed tie-up with NWD. Reportedly other investors are still in the mix. </li>
<li>Any bailout, should one occur, which has been rumoured for, like, forever, is potentially less dilutive at today's share price. It'd still be a bold move to load up here.</li>
</ul>


I don't deliberately set out to knock New World Development (17 HK); just that the newsflow/headlines speak volumes.
Apparently, after months of negotiation, Blackstone has walked away from a proposed tie-up with NWD. Reportedly other investors are still in the mix. 
Any bailout, should one occur, which has been rumoured for, like, forever, is potentially less dilutive at today's share price. It'd still be a bold move to load up here.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The recent debt exchange merely deferred a massive 2028 maturity wall, leaving new bondholders structurally subordinated to commercial banks claiming the Victoria Dockside assets.</li>
<li>Grappling with a structural funding gap exceeding HKD 8 billion annually, management is accelerating a desperate HKD 27 billion asset fire-sale to restore positive cash flow.</li>
<li>The Iran conflict guarantees a "higher-for-longer" HIBOR environment, systematically destroying going-concern equity value and exposing the capital stack to severe liquidation haircuts.</li>
</ul>


The recent debt exchange merely deferred a massive 2028 maturity wall, leaving new bondholders structurally subordinated to commercial banks claiming the Victoria Dockside assets.
Grappling with a structural funding gap exceeding HKD 8 billion annually, management is accelerating a desperate HKD 27 billion asset fire-sale to restore positive cash flow.
The Iran conflict guarantees a "higher-for-longer" HIBOR environment, systematically destroying going-concern equity value and exposing the capital stack to severe liquidation haircuts.


NWD 17 HK: The 2028 Maturity Wall, Victoria Dockside's Debt Trap, and the Iran Macro Shock

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>NWD's H1/25-26 results remained weak, weighed down by the decline in the property development segment on account of lower property deliveries.</li>
<li>This was partly offset by slight earnings growth from the property investment segment.</li>
<li>Core operating profit (excluding one-off items) decreased 18% y-o-y.</li>
</ul>


NWD's H1/25-26 results remained weak, weighed down by the decline in the property development segment on account of lower property deliveries.
This was partly offset by slight earnings growth from the property investment segment.
Core operating profit (excluding one-off items) decreased 18% y-o-y.


New World Development - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2025-26 Results - Lucror Analytics

Co-Founder & CEO, Newmark Risk

Nicholas Pezolano

Co-Founder & CEO

Option analytics for institutional investors

Newmark Risk

Fin-tech company focused on providing option derived analytics for institutional investors.

We handle the complexity of options data so you don't have to.

- Data and Analytics available all in one place so you can focus on Strategy Development
- Custom Solutions for your data and/or portfolio needs
- Advisory services to lend our expertise

Knowledge is something that was meant to be shared and we provide insights to our clients and to the community via posting about our research findings.

Equity Derivatives

New World Development / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Top Hong Kong Stock Exchange listed covered call candidates for the month of February.</li>
<li>The top 10 provide an average ~6% premium with a potential ~7.6% upside P&amp;L if exercised.</li>
<li>Investors with a neutral 1-month view on the underlying can seek to generate income.</li>
</ul>


Top Hong Kong Stock Exchange listed covered call candidates for the month of February.
The top 10 provide an average ~6% premium with a potential ~7.6% upside P&amp;L if exercised.
Investors with a neutral 1-month view on the underlying can seek to generate income.


Hong Kong February 2026 Monthly Covered Call Report

Hong Kong

New World Development is a Hong Kong-based conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and investment, hotels, infrastructure and services, and department stores in Greater China, particularly the Greater Bay Area. Its portfolio includes residential, retail, office, and industrial properties, as well as hotel operations and various infrastructure projects. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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New World Development (17 HK)

The Rate Hike and Capital Flow: 5 Conviction Trades in Asian Real Estate

We analyzed the impact of rate hike to Asia real estate, with recent capital flow and underlying drivers. We recommended SHORT NWD, LINK, and LONG...

Jacob Cheng

NWD (17 HK): Edging Towards A Bailout

I'd still avoid NWD. There was a time when Beijing might have arranged help for a distressed HK tycoon. Hong Kong developers no longer carry the...

David Blennerhassett

NWD 17 HK: The 2028 Maturity Wall, Victoria Dockside's Debt Trap, and the Iran Macro Shock

With a detail analysis on NWD maturity, we think bondholders are structurally subordinated to banks claiming the Victoria assets. There is massive...

Jacob Cheng

New World Development - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2025-26 Results - Lucror Analytics

NWD's H1/25-26 results remained weak, weighed down by the decline in the property development segment on account of lower property deliveries.

Lucror Analytics

Hong Kong February 2026 Monthly Covered Call Report

February's top Hong Kong Stock Exchange covered call candidates offer a 6% premium and potential 7.6% upside if exercised, ideal for investors...

Nicholas Pezolano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Rate Hike and Capital Flow: 5 Conviction Trades in Asian Real Estate

We analyzed the impact of rate hike to Asia real estate, with recent capital flow and underlying drivers. We recommended SHORT NWD, LINK, and LONG...

Jacob Cheng

NWD (17 HK): Edging Towards A Bailout

I'd still avoid NWD. There was a time when Beijing might have arranged help for a distressed HK tycoon. Hong Kong developers no longer carry the...

David Blennerhassett

NWD 17 HK: The 2028 Maturity Wall, Victoria Dockside's Debt Trap, and the Iran Macro Shock

With a detail analysis on NWD maturity, we think bondholders are structurally subordinated to banks claiming the Victoria assets. There is massive...

Jacob Cheng

New World Development - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2025-26 Results - Lucror Analytics

NWD's H1/25-26 results remained weak, weighed down by the decline in the property development segment on account of lower property deliveries.

Lucror Analytics

Hong Kong February 2026 Monthly Covered Call Report

​February's top Hong Kong Stock Exchange covered call candidates offer a 6% premium and potential 7.6% upside if exercised, ideal for investors...

Nicholas Pezolano

February's top Hong Kong Stock Exchange covered call candidates offer a 6% premium and potential 7.6% upside if exercised, ideal for investors...