Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatland-gold-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44285:1" rel="noopener">Greatland Resources (GGP AU)</a> started trading on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asx-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:552:1" rel="noopener">ASX Ltd (ASX AU)</a> on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.</li>
<li>Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatland-gold-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44285:1" rel="noopener">Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN)</a> was listed on the AIM market of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange</a>.</li>
<li>Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.</li>
</ul>



Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.


Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent Results: Newmont delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance with record free cash flow of $1.2 billion, driven by higher gold prices and increased production from Tier 1 assets.</li>
<li>Future Plans: The company plans to ramp up Tier 1 output to ~6.7 Moz by 2028, led by projects like Ahafo North, Tanami Expansion 2, and Cadia block-cave development.</li>
<li>Valuation Upside: If current gold prices around $3,400/oz persist, Newmont’s earnings could double vs. consensus, unlocking over 50% potential upside from current share levels.</li>
</ul>


Recent Results: Newmont delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance with record free cash flow of $1.2 billion, driven by higher gold prices and increased production from Tier 1 assets.
Future Plans: The company plans to ramp up Tier 1 output to ~6.7 Moz by 2028, led by projects like Ahafo North, Tanami Expansion 2, and Cadia block-cave development.
Valuation Upside: If current gold prices around $3,400/oz persist, Newmont’s earnings could double vs. consensus, unlocking over 50% potential upside from current share levels.


Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 2nd Dec 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>, which boasts one of Australia's largest undeveloped gold projects, <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241202/pdf/06c3wj280vb2r0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Northern Star offered 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity upon a successful Scheme, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/e5e42b2e8b50c7f7d80ea83bb63b8a86" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting on the 16th April. Expected implementation on the 5th May. The IE (KPMG) says fair &amp; reasonable.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 2nd Dec 2024, De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia's largest undeveloped gold projects, announced a merger with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
Northern Star offered 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity upon a successful Scheme, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 16th April. Expected implementation on the 5th May. The IE (KPMG) says fair &amp; reasonable.


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): 16th April Scheme Vote

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>, which boasts one of Australia's largest undeveloped gold projects, has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241202/pdf/06c3wj280vb2r0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a merger, by way of  Scheme, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Northern Star is offering 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%. </li>
<li>Terms back out an implied price of A$2.08/share, or a ~37% premium to last close. This Offer  has the unanimous backing of both boards. </li>
</ul>



De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia's largest undeveloped gold projects, has announced a merger, by way of  Scheme, with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
Northern Star is offering 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%. 
Terms back out an implied price of A$2.08/share, or a ~37% premium to last close. This Offer  has the unanimous backing of both boards. 


Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO.</li>
<li>OceanaGold Philippines (OGPI) is a producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, and a subsidiary of OceanaGold Corporation, a Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) listed gold mining and exploration company.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance and shared our quick thoughts on valuation. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO.
OceanaGold Philippines (OGPI) is a producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, and a subsidiary of OceanaGold Corporation, a Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) listed gold mining and exploration company.
In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance and shared our quick thoughts on valuation. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.


OceanaGold Philippines IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Too Expensive Even at This Price

United States

Newmont Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces and markets gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Newmont serves customers worldwide.

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Newmont (NEM AU)

Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

Greatland Resources listed on the ASX after A$504m was raised via a primary+secondary issue in AU/UK. Free float market cap over A$3bn should...

Brian Freitas

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...

Rahul Jain

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): 16th April Scheme Vote

16th April Scheme Meeting. Implementation on the 5th May. The IE says fair & reasonable. Trading tight at ~1.9%. IF you can get borrow cheaply on...

David Blennerhassett

Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

Terms are fair. The implied Offer price for De Grey is a lifetime high. If you can take down borrow cheaply on Northern Star, do so. Expect the...

David Blennerhassett

OceanaGold Philippines IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Too Expensive Even at This Price

OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.

Ethan Aw

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

Greatland Resources listed on the ASX after A$504m was raised via a primary+secondary issue in AU/UK. Free float market cap over A$3bn should...

Brian Freitas

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

​Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...

Rahul Jain

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): 16th April Scheme Vote

16th April Scheme Meeting. Implementation on the 5th May. The IE says fair & reasonable. Trading tight at ~1.9%. IF you can get borrow cheaply on...

David Blennerhassett

Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

Terms are fair. The implied Offer price for De Grey is a lifetime high. If you can take down borrow cheaply on Northern Star, do so. Expect the...

David Blennerhassett

OceanaGold Philippines IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Too Expensive Even at This Price

OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.

Ethan Aw

Newmont's strong Q1 performance driven by record free cash flow, plans to increase Tier 1 output by 2028, and potential for significant earnings...