Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.</li>
<li>Following our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gold-equities-a-detailed-look-at-the-capital-allocation-plans-of-our-universe-barrick-gold-b-us" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:273679" rel="noopener">Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)</a>, we follow up on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>  </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  have impressive capital return programs.</li>
</ul>


At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.
Following our prior insight, Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US), we follow up on Newmont Mining (NEM US)  
We like OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, Newmont Mining (NEM US) and Barrick Mining (B US)  have impressive capital return programs.


Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Newmont (NEM US)

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
<li>
 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
<li>
Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
</ul>



Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

<ul>
<li>Current spot gold prices at 4,180 USD/oz are 25% lower than the January high of 5,600 USD/oz. Stocks will now report Q2 earnings (Apr-June), where gold prices averaged 4,500 USD/oz.</li>
<li>With gold at 4,000 USD/oz, our stock universe trades at 7.8-10x PE and 4.5-6x EV-EBITDA, with the highest dividend yield of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> at 10.8%.</li>
<li>Our top large-cap pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>, and in the small and midcap space, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apex-mining-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22952:1" rel="noopener">Apex Mining Co (APX PM)</a> and Wesdome Gold. </li>
</ul>


Current spot gold prices at 4,180 USD/oz are 25% lower than the January high of 5,600 USD/oz. Stocks will now report Q2 earnings (Apr-June), where gold prices averaged 4,500 USD/oz.
With gold at 4,000 USD/oz, our stock universe trades at 7.8-10x PE and 4.5-6x EV-EBITDA, with the highest dividend yield of OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) at 10.8%.
Our top large-cap pick is Barrick Mining (B US), and in the small and midcap space, we like Apex Mining Co (APX PM) and Wesdome Gold. 


Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
 <li>As the world's largest gold producer, Newmont is well-positioned to capitalize on strong gold prices, underscored by record free cash flow generation in recent quarters.</li>
 <li>The company is navigating a period of strategic transition, focusing on integrating the Newcrest acquisition, optimizing its portfolio through divestitures, and advancing key growth projects like Red Chris and Tanami Expansion 2.</li>
 <li>Headwinds from rising operating costs, operational challenges leading to production declines, and an evolving leadership structure present key risks to margin expansion and consistent execution.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  As the world's largest gold producer, Newmont is well-positioned to capitalize on strong gold prices, underscored by record free cash flow generation in recent quarters.
  The company is navigating a period of strategic transition, focusing on integrating the Newcrest acquisition, optimizing its portfolio through divestitures, and advancing key growth projects like Red Chris and Tanami Expansion 2.
  Headwinds from rising operating costs, operational challenges leading to production declines, and an evolving leadership structure present key risks to margin expansion and consistent execution.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Newmont Mining (NEM US) - Aug 2026

<ul>
<li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> recorded a second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2bn on a realized gold price of $4,414/oz; full-year 2026 guidance of 5.3Moz reaffirmed.</li>
<li>
Operating leverage intact: realized gold up 33% YoY against 4% growth in absolute CAS; $3.4bn net cash funds buybacks without strain.</li>
<li>
Stock trades at 10.1x P/E and 5.5x EV-EBITDA, with almost USD 4.3 Bn of buybacks still to come and a net cash position of USD 3.4 Bn. FCF Yield 11%. </li>
</ul>


Newmont Mining (NEM US) recorded a second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2bn on a realized gold price of $4,414/oz; full-year 2026 guidance of 5.3Moz reaffirmed.

Operating leverage intact: realized gold up 33% YoY against 4% growth in absolute CAS; $3.4bn net cash funds buybacks without strain.

Stock trades at 10.1x P/E and 5.5x EV-EBITDA, with almost USD 4.3 Bn of buybacks still to come and a net cash position of USD 3.4 Bn. FCF Yield 11%. 


Newmont Mining (NEM US): Q2 FY26 Results, Record Second Quarter FCF Despite Softer Gold Price

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Newmont (NEM US)

Newmont now returns ~75% of free cash flow: a fixed $1.1bn dividend plus formula buybacks ($7.7bn done, $4.3bn left), with $3.4bn net cash. Gold...

Sameer Taneja

Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Gold's correction gutted valuations, not fundamentals. Six miners now screen dirt cheap: net-cash balance sheets, 60%+ margins, single-digit P/Es....

Sameer Taneja

Primer: Newmont Mining (NEM US) - Aug 2026

As the world's largest gold producer, Newmont is well-positioned to capitalize on strong gold prices, underscored by record free cash flow...

αSK Primers