Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The results for the March 2024 index rebal event for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st March 2024.</li>
<li>There is one change for ASX 20, two changes for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>There are 14 ADDs and 10 DELs for ASX 300 and while most of these are small-size flow names some of them have more than 15x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The results for the March 2024 index rebal event for ASX indices were announced after the close on Friday 1st March 2024.
There is one change for ASX 20, two changes for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200.
There are 14 ADDs and 10 DELs for ASX 300 and while most of these are small-size flow names some of them have more than 15x ADV to trade.


Quiddity ASX Mar 24 Index Rebal: Many High-Impact Names

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>As warned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/newcrest-newmont-merger-fancy-index-shenanigans" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113359" rel="noopener">Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans</a> in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.</li>
<li>We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won't be obvious to everyone. </li>
<li>There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.</li>
</ul>


As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won't be obvious to everyone. 
There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.


Newmont's Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.</li>
<li>I expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200 during the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Separately, there could also be one <em>intra</em>-review change for ASX 200 in February 2024.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.
I expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200 during the March 2024 index rebal event.
Separately, there could also be one intra-review change for ASX 200 in February 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Allkem, Newmont, Costa, and Many More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The capping for the Hang Seng family of indices will use closing prices from 28 November while implementation will take place at the close on 1 December.</li>
<li>The changes for the next <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> rebalance will be announced after the close of trading on 1 December.</li>
<li>It was another week of inflows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EMXC US)</a> to take units outstanding to a new high.</li>
</ul>


The capping for the Hang Seng family of indices will use closing prices from 28 November while implementation will take place at the close on 1 December.
The changes for the next S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) rebalance will be announced after the close of trading on 1 December.
It was another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets (EMXC US) to take units outstanding to a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, Div+, Top50, ASX, FXI, Xiaomi, Tata Tech

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in December. There are unlikely to be any changes for indices higher up the hierarchy.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 7-11 days of ADV in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will be larger at between 11-23 days of ADV.</li>
<li>Short interest has decreased on the potential inclusions and increased on the potential deletions. There is significant pre-positioning on some of the stocks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December. There are unlikely to be any changes for indices higher up the hierarchy.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 7-11 days of ADV in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will be larger at between 11-23 days of ADV.
Short interest has decreased on the potential inclusions and increased on the potential deletions. There is significant pre-positioning on some of the stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Quiddity ASX Mar 24 Index Rebal: Many High-Impact Names

On average, the ADDs have 11x ADV to buy and DELs have 8x ADV to sell. The ADDs could outperform the DELs over the next two weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Newmont's Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

Newmont (NEM AU) will be a big sell in the March S&P/ASX index rebalance with A$1.5bn to sell and a likely ASX20 index deletion to come because...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Allkem, Newmont, Costa, and Many More

I see 20+ ADDs/DELs in total across ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, and 300 in the run up to the March 2024 rebalance. Many names have multiple number of...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, Div+, Top50, ASX, FXI, Xiaomi, Tata Tech

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement

There could be 3 changes for the ASX200 in December. Impact on the adds/deletes varies from 7-23x ADV. Shorts have increased on the potential...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity ASX Mar 24 Index Rebal: Many High-Impact Names

On average, the ADDs have 11x ADV to buy and DELs have 8x ADV to sell. The ADDs could outperform the DELs over the next two weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Newmont's Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

Newmont (NEM AU) will be a big sell in the March S&P/ASX index rebalance with A$1.5bn to sell and a likely ASX20 index deletion to come because...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Allkem, Newmont, Costa, and Many More

I see 20+ ADDs/DELs in total across ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, and 300 in the run up to the March 2024 rebalance. Many names have multiple number of...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, Div+, Top50, ASX, FXI, Xiaomi, Tata Tech

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement

There could be 3 changes for the ASX200 in December. Impact on the adds/deletes varies from 7-23x ADV. Shorts have increased on the potential...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact; A Week From Announcement