Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Gold has pulled back from record highs near US$5,594/oz in January 2026, but supply remains inelastic and structural demand persists, suggesting downside is constrained.</li>
<li>Short-Term price moves are shaped by real yields, the US dollar and positioning. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and limit near-term upside.</li>
<li>Official sector buying remains positive and absorbs supply, providing a structural floor, but its pace is uneven and insufficient to offset macro-driven outflows in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Gold has pulled back from record highs near US$5,594/oz in January 2026, but supply remains inelastic and structural demand persists, suggesting downside is constrained.
Short-Term price moves are shaped by real yields, the US dollar and positioning. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and limit near-term upside.
Official sector buying remains positive and absorbs supply, providing a structural floor, but its pace is uneven and insufficient to offset macro-driven outflows in the short term.


Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520</li>
<li>SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520
SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy


Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> rejected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a>'s proposal (0.3125 shares plus A$7.25 cash, implied A$27.00, 22.1% premium). It cited undervaluation, scrip risk, opportunistic timing and onerous conditions.</li>
<li>Elliott, the key activist, needs a higher offer. Its return would be modest; NST's turnaround has barely started; Gold Fields keeps most synergies; and hard exclusivity shuts out rival bidders.</li>
<li>Gold Fields will likely return at around A$28–30, with more cash and no hard exclusivity. Synergies and past deals support this, but the deal's size acts as a constraint.</li>
</ul>



Northern Star Resources (NST AU) rejected Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)'s proposal (0.3125 shares plus A$7.25 cash, implied A$27.00, 22.1% premium). It cited undervaluation, scrip risk, opportunistic timing and onerous conditions.
Elliott, the key activist, needs a higher offer. Its return would be modest; NST's turnaround has barely started; Gold Fields keeps most synergies; and hard exclusivity shuts out rival bidders.
Gold Fields will likely return at around A$28–30, with more cash and no hard exclusivity. Synergies and past deals support this, but the deal's size acts as a constraint.


Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. It underlies the biggest listed sector ETF (GDX).</li>
<li>We currently don't see any index changes for the December 2026 rebal. The potential ADDs would need to significantly outperform to trigger an index change.</li>
<li>The Vault-Genesis deal is likely to complete before the December 2026 rebal and is expected to trigger passive flows in MV Global Gold and MV Junior Gold Miners indices.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. It underlies the biggest listed sector ETF (GDX).
We currently don't see any index changes for the December 2026 rebal. The potential ADDs would need to significantly outperform to trigger an index change.
The Vault-Genesis deal is likely to complete before the December 2026 rebal and is expected to trigger passive flows in MV Global Gold and MV Junior Gold Miners indices.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec26 Rebal: No Changes Likely; Vault-Genesis Deal Flows

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Uranium takes centre stage, while precious metals remain in a corrective phase</li>
<li>Xi and Trump finally have their sit-down - important details behind the headlines</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Uranium takes centre stage, while precious metals remain in a corrective phase
Xi and Trump finally have their sit-down - important details behind the headlines


Overview#39 – Uranium’s Surge, Gold’s Lull, and Some Geopolitics in Between

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Gold: The Floor Is Clear, Weakness Is an Opportunity

Gold has a structural floor from constrained supply and central bank demand, but real yields cap upside, making weakness a more attractive entry...

Duncan Chan

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

Northern Star (NST AU): Gold Fields Rejection Justified, Sweetened Bid Likely

NST rejected Gold Fields' A$27.00 bid (22.1% premium) as too low. Elliott wants more. Gold Fields is likely to return at ~A$28–30 with more cash,...

Arun George

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec26 Rebal: No Changes Likely; Vault-Genesis Deal Flows

For now, no changes are expected for the GDX ETF rebal in December 2026. Between now and then, there will be ad hoc changes due to the expected...

Travis Lundy

Overview#39 – Uranium’s Surge, Gold’s Lull, and Some Geopolitics in Between

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the uranium sector and the implications of the Xi-Trump...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)