Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.</li>
<li>Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.</li>
<li>Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x</li>
</ul>


5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.
Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x


Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. </li>
<li>Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.</li>
<li>But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 


Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>We expanded our coverage to seven gold companies, including Wesdome Gold Mining (WDO CN), which just released its Q1FY26 earnings. We will write a detailed insight on it shortly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> trades at an 11% dividend yield and 9.2x PE, while <a target="_blank">Apex Mining Co (APX PM)</a> trades at an 8.3x PE valuation with a 6% yield. </li>
<li>Amongst the large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> trade at 8.3x PE and 10x PE, respectively, with 7.2% and 8.1% FCF yields. </li>
</ul>


We expanded our coverage to seven gold companies, including Wesdome Gold Mining (WDO CN), which just released its Q1FY26 earnings. We will write a detailed insight on it shortly.

OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) trades at an 11% dividend yield and 9.2x PE, while Apex Mining Co (APX PM) trades at an 8.3x PE valuation with a 6% yield. 
Amongst the large caps, Barrick Mining (B US) and Newmont Mining (NEM US) trade at 8.3x PE and 10x PE, respectively, with 7.2% and 8.1% FCF yields. 


Gold At 4,500 USD/Oz: Seven Ideas To Look At In the Gold Space

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Newmont Corporation reported a robust first quarter of 2026, demonstrating operational resilience and financial strength that aligns with its 2026 guidance.</li><li>The company produced 1.3 million ounces of gold, 30,000 tonnes of copper, and 9 million ounces of silver, supported by gains in by-product pricing and sales volumes, particularly silver, of which Newmont is the third largest producer globally.</li><li>Despite operational headwinds such as natural disasters and weather-related disruptions—including a magnitude 4.5 earthquake at Cadia, bushfires at Boddington, heavy snowfall at Brucejack, and high rainfall at Tanami—Newmont maintained a consistent and predictable performance across its diversified portfolio.</li></ul>

Newmont Corporation reported a robust first quarter of 2026, demonstrating operational resilience and financial strength that aligns with its 2026 guidance.The company produced 1.3 million ounces of gold, 30,000 tonnes of copper, and 9 million ounces of silver, supported by gains in by-product pricing and sales volumes, particularly silver, of which Newmont is the third largest producer globally.Despite operational headwinds such as natural disasters and weather-related disruptions—including a magnitude 4.5 earthquake at Cadia, bushfires at Boddington, heavy snowfall at Brucejack, and high rainfall at Tanami—Newmont maintained a consistent and predictable performance across its diversified portfolio.

Newmont: The Stress Test Is Cadia Recovery Not The Record $3.1 Billion Cash Flow!

<ul>
<li>
$3.1B Q1FY26 all-time record quarterly FCF; Annualized implies a 10% FCF yield, with a realized gold price of 4,900 USD/oz. </li>
<li>
Tanami Exp 2, Cadia PC2-3/PC1-2, Lihir Nearshore Barrier, and Red Chris Block Cave underpin a multi-year production ramp to ~6 Moz (vs. current 5.3 Moz).</li>
<li>
$6B new buyback authorization; $2.7B returned since Feb-26; $1.1B/yr dividend growing per-share as share count declines.</li>
</ul>



$3.1B Q1FY26 all-time record quarterly FCF; Annualized implies a 10% FCF yield, with a realized gold price of 4,900 USD/oz. 

Tanami Exp 2, Cadia PC2-3/PC1-2, Lihir Nearshore Barrier, and Red Chris Block Cave underpin a multi-year production ramp to ~6 Moz (vs. current 5.3 Moz).

$6B new buyback authorization; $2.7B returned since Feb-26; $1.1B/yr dividend growing per-share as share count declines.


Newmont Mining (NEM US): The World's Premier Gold Miner At ~10% FCF Yield

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

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Travis Lundy

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Sameer Taneja

Newmont: The Stress Test Is Cadia Recovery Not The Record $3.1 Billion Cash Flow!

Newmont Corporation reported a robust first quarter of 2026, demonstrating operational resilience and financial strength that aligns with its 2026...

Baptista Research

Newmont Mining (NEM US): The World's Premier Gold Miner At ~10% FCF Yield

NEM US: World's largest gold miner. Record $3.1B quarterly FCF. $6B buyback. 2026 trough; production ramps to 6Moz+ by 2028. 10.8x PE/6.0 EV-EBITDA...

Sameer Taneja

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