Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Zijin Gold International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.</li>
<li>If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment). </li>
</ul>


Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Zijin Gold is aiming to raise US$3.2 billion (HK$24.98 billion) from its IPO, offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each.
Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price). We expect a sharply higher pop on the first day of trading.
If its share price appreciates more than 30-50% or more, we think it is prudent to take some profits off the table (at least 25%-30% of total investment). 


Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper &amp; Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.</li>
<li>Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.</li>
<li>Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.</li>
</ul>


Copper &amp; Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.
Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.
Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.


Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside

Merdeka Gold Resources / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.</li>
<li>Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).</li>
<li>Valuation &amp; Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.</li>
</ul>


Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.
Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).
Valuation &amp; Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.


Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.</li>
<li>The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.</li>
<li>With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.
The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.
With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.


Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a "pure gold business" to the market. Such "asset revaluation" can unlock the hidden value of gold business.</li>
<li>For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.</li>
<li>Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.</li>
</ul>


The spin-off of Zijin for an independent listing is equivalent to presenting a "pure gold business" to the market. Such "asset revaluation" can unlock the hidden value of gold business.
For enterprises like Zijin in the upstream of gold industry chain, a sustained high and rising gold price is usually a significant positive factor. However, there are also potential risks.
Zijin Gold has better growth potential than peers, so we think its valuation range could be P/E of 18-22x. If based on 2025 net profit forecast, valuation is US$36.9-45.1 billion.


Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price).

Douglas Kim

Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside

Zijin's market cap surpasses US$100bn as copper and gold prices rise, with potential valuation upside and spin-off catalyst from Zijin Gold...

Rahul Jain

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

EMAS IJ's successful IPO raised $281m to fund Sulawesi's Pani Gold Project, with production expected to ramp up to 500 koz by 2032. Valuation at...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at premium valuations. It's high gold price sensitivity offer investors amplified upside if the gold rally continues —...

Devi Subhakesan

Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at HK$71.59, with market value of US$24bn. Such IPO pricing is attractive and leaves decent upside potential for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Trading Strategy of Zijin Gold on the First Day of IPO

Zijin Gold IPO will start trading on 30 September. Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold is HK$124.7 per share (74.2% higher than the IPO price).

Douglas Kim

Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside

​Zijin's market cap surpasses US$100bn as copper and gold prices rise, with potential valuation upside and spin-off catalyst from Zijin Gold...

Rahul Jain

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

​EMAS IJ's successful IPO raised $281m to fund Sulawesi's Pani Gold Project, with production expected to ramp up to 500 koz by 2032. Valuation at...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold IPO: Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis. A High Beta Proxy for Gold

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at premium valuations. It's high gold price sensitivity offer investors amplified upside if the gold rally continues —...

Devi Subhakesan

Pre-IPO Zijin Gold (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Business, the Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Zijin Gold's IPO is priced at HK$71.59, with market value of US$24bn. Such IPO pricing is attractive and leaves decent upside potential for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zijin's market cap surpasses US$100bn as copper and gold prices rise, with potential valuation upside and spin-off catalyst from Zijin Gold...

EMAS IJ's successful IPO raised $281m to fund Sulawesi's Pani Gold Project, with production expected to ramp up to 500 koz by 2032. Valuation at...