IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> confirmed a non-binding indicative privatisation proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> at 0.380 Newmont shares per Newcrest share. </li>
<li>The offer values Newcrest at a discount to Tier 1 gold producer EV/Resource multiples. Also, the offer carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates.</li>
<li>The offer underscores Newcrest’s value and helps the Board seek better terms. There is a possibility of a counterbid from other Tier 1 producers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Gold (GOLD US)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) confirmed a non-binding indicative privatisation proposal from Newmont Mining (NEM US) at 0.380 Newmont shares per Newcrest share. 
The offer values Newcrest at a discount to Tier 1 gold producer EV/Resource multiples. Also, the offer carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates.
The offer underscores Newcrest’s value and helps the Board seek better terms. There is a possibility of a counterbid from other Tier 1 producers such as Barrick Gold (GOLD US).


Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont’s Light All-Scrip Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>, the world’s largest gold miner, has pitched a non-binding, all-scrip proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, Australia’s largest listed gold company.  </li>
<li>The proposal offers 0.38 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share, or an indicative Offer price of A$27.16/share, a 21% premium to last close. An earlier proposal from Newmont was rejected.</li>
<li>The proposal is subject to a raft of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval, and regulatory approvals, including FIRB.</li>
</ul>



Newmont Mining (NEM US), the world’s largest gold miner, has pitched a non-binding, all-scrip proposal for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Australia’s largest listed gold company.  
The proposal offers 0.38 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share, or an indicative Offer price of A$27.16/share, a 21% premium to last close. An earlier proposal from Newmont was rejected.
The proposal is subject to a raft of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval, and regulatory approvals, including FIRB.


Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>. The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.</li>
<li>At <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>'s last close, this values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.</li>
</ul>



Newmont Mining (NEM US) has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire Newcrest Mining (NCM AU). The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.
At Newmont Mining (NEM US)'s last close, this values Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.

Newmont Mining (NEM US) intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.


Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Newmont will update guidance for 2023 when it releases Q4 results on 23 February 2023. We anticipate a strong close to 2022 (production up 6% quarter on quarter and costs down 13% in Q4) and believe a dividend recalibration is possible, albeit reflecting industry inflation rather than a reassessment of capital allocation policy in general. In this context, we see Newmont as a sustainable choice among gold producers, not only in an ESG sense, but also in its ability to maintain 6Moz pa of low-cost production.

Newmont will update guidance for 2023 when it releases Q4 results on 23 February 2023. We anticipate a strong close to 2022 (production up 6% quarter on quarter and costs down 13% in Q4) and believe a dividend recalibration is possible, albeit reflecting industry inflation rather than a reassessment of capital allocation policy in general. In this context, we see Newmont as a sustainable choice among gold producers, not only in an ESG sense, but also in its ability to maintain 6Moz pa of low-cost production. 

Newmont Corporation - Sustainable in several senses

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Doctor Care Anywhere (DOC), Argentex Group (AGFX), Newmont Corporation (NEM), GB Group (GBG), Abliva (ABLI) and TIE Kinetix (TIE). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Doctor Care Anywhere (DOC), Argentex Group (AGFX), Newmont Corporation (NEM), GB Group (GBG), Abliva (ABLI) and TIE Kinetix (TIE). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.


Newmont Corporation - Termination of coverage

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont’s Light All-Scrip Offer

The offer is light in terms of peers' multiples. The Board should seek better terms by granting due diligence. There is also a chance of counterbid...

Arun George

Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold

Newcrest will, in all likelihood, grant due diligence to Newmont. I don't expect any FIRB pushback. Look to short Newmont late in the day, and buy...

David Blennerhassett

Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Newmont is looking to acquire Newcrest Mining at an exchange ratio of 0.38 NEM shares per NCM share. That is a 22% premium for NCM. NEM intends to...

Brian Freitas

Newmont Corporation - Sustainable in several senses

Newmont will update guidance for 2023 when it releases Q4 results on 23 February 2023. We anticipate a strong close to 2022 (production up 6%...

Edison Investment Research

Newmont Corporation - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Doctor Care Anywhere (DOC), Argentex Group (AGFX), Newmont Corporation (NEM), GB Group (GBG),...

Edison Investment Research

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