HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Zijin Gold International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Zijin Gold showed strong growth momentum in 25Q1-Q3, mainly driven by high gold prices and the two major acquisitions of the Ghana Akyem Gold Mine and Kazakhstan Raygorodok Gold Mine.</li>
<li>Based on 25Q1-Q3 results, we updated our forecast of Zijin Gold, with net profit to reach US$1.5 billion/US$2.3 billion/US$3.5 billion in 2025/2026/2027, respectively.Theoretically speaking, valuation still has positive upside potential.</li>
<li>However, our greatest concern is not the fundamental factors but the selling caused by liquidity crisis, which may lead to a synchronous correction of Zijin when the global market declines.</li>
</ul>


Zijin Gold showed strong growth momentum in 25Q1-Q3, mainly driven by high gold prices and the two major acquisitions of the Ghana Akyem Gold Mine and Kazakhstan Raygorodok Gold Mine.
Based on 25Q1-Q3 results, we updated our forecast of Zijin Gold, with net profit to reach US$1.5 billion/US$2.3 billion/US$3.5 billion in 2025/2026/2027, respectively.Theoretically speaking, valuation still has positive upside potential.
However, our greatest concern is not the fundamental factors but the selling caused by liquidity crisis, which may lead to a synchronous correction of Zijin when the global market declines.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK) 25Q3 - Updates on Forecast/Valuation and Potential Risks Behind

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Equity Bottom-Up

In this note: 1) some interesting reversals, 2) some updates on stock pick performances, 3) other updates and items of note. A few enclosures added.Of all the interesting things that happened over the last few weeks, to me, were two reversals most investors would have not gone for until they happened. Ultimately, it was a story about the market expecting key commodities to retreat, only to find the reverse.Interesting piece from Rickards last week is discussed.

In this note: 1) some interesting reversals, 2) some updates on stock pick performances, 3) other updates and items of note. A few enclosures added.Of all the interesting things that happened over the last few weeks, to me, were two reversals most investors would have not gone for until they happened. Ultimately, it was a story about the market expecting key commodities to retreat, only to find the reverse.Interesting piece from Rickards last week is discussed.

Interesting Counter-Intuitive Reversals Last Few Weeks (Breakouts…Positions…Key Notes)

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, maintained the current target federal funds rate of 0.25%-0.5%.At first glance, this announcement would seem like a boon for gold, as lower interest rates mean a lower opportunity cost for holding goldAnalysts: Kristoffer Inton &amp; Daniel Rohr

Last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, maintained the current target federal funds rate of 0.25%-0.5%.At first glance, this announcement would seem like a boon for gold, as lower interest rates mean a lower opportunity cost for holding goldAnalysts: Kristoffer Inton &amp; Daniel Rohr

Although Fed Pares Back Rate-Hike Path, the Outlook for Gold as an Investment Remains Weak

Resurgent investor demand for gold rests on tenuous circumstances.Historically, "safe haven" rallies have proved short-lived, and we see near-term downside if fears of a severe recession end up being unwarranted.Analyst: Kristoffer Inton

Resurgent investor demand for gold rests on tenuous circumstances.Historically, "safe haven" rallies have proved short-lived, and we see near-term downside if fears of a severe recession end up being unwarranted.Analyst: Kristoffer Inton

The Safe-Haven Gold Rally Has Shaky Footing

Adjusted first-half fiscal 2016 net profit after tax of USD 63 million was a 65% decline on a year ago but in line with our forecast.Newcrest shares are undervalued. The company's competitive position is likely to improve with expansion of Cadia and Lihir and the lower AUD, driving cash costs back into the lowest half of the cost curve.

Adjusted first-half fiscal 2016 net profit after tax of USD 63 million was a 65% decline on a year ago but in line with our forecast.Newcrest shares are undervalued. The company's competitive position is likely to improve with expansion of Cadia and Lihir and the lower AUD, driving cash costs back into the lowest half of the cost curve.

Newcrest Result Declines With Prices but Meets Our Expectations, Fair Value Maintained

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) 25Q3 - Updates on Forecast/Valuation and Potential Risks Behind

Zijin's strong growth in 25Q3 driven by high gold price/acquisitions. Our greatest concern is not fundamental factors but the selling caused by...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Interesting Counter-Intuitive Reversals Last Few Weeks (Breakouts…Positions…Key Notes)

In this note: 1) some interesting reversals, 2) some updates on stock pick performances, 3) other updates and items of note. A few enclosures...

Charles De Trenck

Although Fed Pares Back Rate-Hike Path, the Outlook for Gold as an Investment Remains Weak

Last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, maintained the current target federal funds rate of 0.25%-0.5%.At first glance, this...

Morningstar, Inc.

The Safe-Haven Gold Rally Has Shaky Footing

Resurgent investor demand for gold rests on tenuous circumstances.Historically, "safe haven" rallies have proved short-lived, and we see near-term...

Morningstar, Inc.

Newcrest Result Declines With Prices but Meets Our Expectations, Fair Value Maintained

Adjusted first-half fiscal 2016 net profit after tax of USD 63 million was a 65% decline on a year ago but in line with our forecast.Newcrest...

Morningstar, Inc.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) 25Q3 - Updates on Forecast/Valuation and Potential Risks Behind

​Zijin's strong growth in 25Q3 driven by high gold price/acquisitions. Our greatest concern is not fundamental factors but the selling caused by...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Interesting Counter-Intuitive Reversals Last Few Weeks (Breakouts…Positions…Key Notes)

In this note: 1) some interesting reversals, 2) some updates on stock pick performances, 3) other updates and items of note. A few enclosures...

Charles De Trenck

Although Fed Pares Back Rate-Hike Path, the Outlook for Gold as an Investment Remains Weak

Last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, maintained the current target federal funds rate of 0.25%-0.5%.At first glance, this...

Morningstar, Inc.

The Safe-Haven Gold Rally Has Shaky Footing

Resurgent investor demand for gold rests on tenuous circumstances.Historically, "safe haven" rallies have proved short-lived, and we see near-term...

Morningstar, Inc.

Newcrest Result Declines With Prices but Meets Our Expectations, Fair Value Maintained

Adjusted first-half fiscal 2016 net profit after tax of USD 63 million was a 65% decline on a year ago but in line with our forecast.Newcrest...

Morningstar, Inc.

Zijin's strong growth in 25Q3 driven by high gold price/acquisitions. Our greatest concern is not fundamental factors but the selling caused by...