Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a> is two businesses - a US pork processor and a Chinese one - and both businesses are suffering lower margins than they'd like.</li>
<li>But they are doing better than and are cheaper than peers. And still the stock falls. Today, the stock price hit a 6-year low on dramatic underperformance of peers.</li>
<li>The question is what the proper discount would be for people who question its governance credentials. It's a really big discount now.</li>
</ul>



WH Group (288 HK) is two businesses - a US pork processor and a Chinese one - and both businesses are suffering lower margins than they'd like.
But they are doing better than and are cheaper than peers. And still the stock falls. Today, the stock price hit a 6-year low on dramatic underperformance of peers.
The question is what the proper discount would be for people who question its governance credentials. It's a really big discount now.


WH Group (288 HK) - Now Cheapest in Yonks Outright and Vs Peers

The shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a> to be returned to shareholders after the Buyback Offer have been returned to shareholders as of this morning. Some appeared to have sold yesterday, some today, and some may not "get notice" of the return until tonight, which means they would sell tomorrow or later. Now we look ahead. Based on a pure price-vs-peers basis, the price today is about 3% below where it was compared to a mix of Chinese and global peers as of the day before the announcement. However, that does not include the 15% accretion to EPS from the buyback. That puts the stock a fair bit cheaper than its peer basket since the announcement 3+ months ago. And it has ALWAYS traded cheap on governance concerns (and one reason why showed up last month in a public spat between the spurned first son and the chairman, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wh-group-stock-plummets-as-ousted-son-drags-pigs-into-the-mud" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56282" rel="noopener">WH Group - Stock Plummets as Ousted Son Drags Pigs Into The Mud</a>. The question investors should ask themselves is.... if the family were ousted, would that be good for the share price? If the answer is yes, then the exposure here probably has some convexity given the shares trade at a multi-year low to Peers on an accretion-adjusted basis.

The shares of WH Group (288 HK) to be returned to shareholders after the Buyback Offer have been returned to shareholders as of this morning. Some appeared to have sold yesterday, some today, and some may not "get notice" of the return until tonight, which means they would sell tomorrow or later. Now we look ahead. Based on a pure price-vs-peers basis, the price today is about 3% below where it was compared to a mix of Chinese and global peers as of the day before the announcement. However, that does not include the 15% accretion to EPS from the buyback. That puts the stock a fair bit cheaper than its peer basket since the announcement 3+ months ago. And it has ALWAYS traded cheap on governance concerns (and one reason why showed up last month in a public spat between the spurned first son and the chairman, discussed in WH Group - Stock Plummets as Ousted Son Drags Pigs Into The Mud. The question investors should ask themselves is.... if the family were ousted, would that be good for the share price? If the answer is yes, then the exposure here probably has some convexity given the shares trade at a multi-year low to Peers on an accretion-adjusted basis.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Toyota’s current dividend and buyback yields are 3.1% and 2.1% respectively (at the current market price of JPY7,199 as of 22nd June 2018) bringing Toyota’s current cash yield (dividend yield plus buyback yield) to 5.2%. Toyota’s cash yield has been above the 5% mark consistently since FY03/15.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/055/962/original/Toyota.PNG?1529972342" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="55962"></figure><div class="content-remarks">Source: Capital IQ and LSR Calculations</div>We find Toyota’s high cash yield attractive as markets head towards bear territory. Toyota is in the higher end of the dividend yield spectrum among the Nikkei 225…

Toyota’s current dividend and buyback yields are 3.1% and 2.1% respectively (at the current market price of JPY7,199 as of 22nd June 2018) bringing Toyota’s current cash yield (dividend yield plus buyback yield) to 5.2%. Toyota’s cash yield has been above the 5% mark consistently since FY03/15.Source: Capital IQ and LSR CalculationsWe find Toyota’s high cash yield attractive as markets head towards bear territory. Toyota is in the higher end of the dividend yield spectrum among the Nikkei 225…

Toyota for Bears: How Attractive Are Income Yields?

Japan

NH Foods Ltd. produces and sells ham, sausage, and processed meat products. The Company also breeds and raises cattle through its subsidiary. NH Foods owns a professional baseball team, the Nippon Ham Fighters.

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Nh Foods Ltd (2282 JP)

WH Group (288 HK) - Now Cheapest in Yonks Outright and Vs Peers

WH Group has always been cheap to its peer group. Now it is worse. Pork prices are underperforming feed prices, lowering margins worldwide. WH has...

Travis Lundy

WH Group Post-Tender Outlook

Buyback Offer shares are returned. Now we look forward. Of course, we did before in assuming participation rates. The stock is cheap on accretion...

Travis Lundy

Toyota for Bears: How Attractive Are Income Yields?

Toyota’s current dividend and buyback yields are 3.1% and 2.1% respectively (at the current market price of JPY7,199 as of 22nd June 2018) bringing...

Supun Walpola

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