Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest policy shift in three decades? US dollar weakness has always gone hand-in-hand with a surging Yen, but in the latest USD sell-off the Yen has been largely unmoved and, as the chart of a peer-weighted Yen basket (USD, Yuan, Sing$ and Won) suggests, over the past year the Yen has effectively flat-lined. This brief note summarises a series of recently…

‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest policy shift in three decades? US dollar weakness has always gone hand-in-hand with a surging Yen, but in the latest USD sell-off the Yen has been largely unmoved and, as the chart of a peer-weighted Yen basket (USD, Yuan, Sing$ and Won) suggests, over the past year the Yen has effectively flat-lined. This brief note summarises a series of recently…

Is This Asia’s Biggest Policy Shift in Three-Decades?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

<div style="text-align: left;">Asia bid support is coming through with signs of resilience. This tactical insight outlines S&amp;P pivot levels and the markets that are showing a firmer chart and bid support bias in Asia as well as the weaker market postures where we want to reduce risk on tactical strength. February is a seasonally weak month with US equities in a fragile state barring a push back above S&amp;P 2,810. We placed short protection at S&amp;P 2,844 and 2,807 on the back of warning signals of a fallout and followed with…</div>

Asia bid support is coming through with signs of resilience. This tactical insight outlines S&amp;P pivot levels and the markets that are showing a firmer chart and bid support bias in Asia as well as the weaker market postures where we want to reduce risk on tactical strength. February is a seasonally weak month with US equities in a fragile state barring a push back above S&amp;P 2,810. We placed short protection at S&amp;P 2,844 and 2,807 on the back of warning signals of a fallout and followed with…

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Introduction</h2>HBO’s successful series Game of Thrones has the phrase “Winter is coming” as its key tag line. It is not meant to reference a seasonal cold spell lasting a few months, but something much more profound and disturbing for the human characters who inhabit this fictional world. Unfortunately, the same phrase has relevance for the real world we presently inhabit.For the overwhelming majority of people, a Third World War is simply unimaginable (try broaching the subject in polite company…

IntroductionHBO’s successful series Game of Thrones has the phrase “Winter is coming” as its key tag line. It is not meant to reference a seasonal cold spell lasting a few months, but something much more profound and disturbing for the human characters who inhabit this fictional world. Unfortunately, the same phrase has relevance for the real world we presently inhabit.For the overwhelming majority of people, a Third World War is simply unimaginable (try broaching the subject in polite company…

The Market Sentimentalist - Winter Is Coming: Economic Pathways To World War III

We have liked Japan since 2016 with a base long from Nikkei 17,000 and the fresh buy call at 21,020 with the bet that this breakout would force a chase that has worked to plan. Japan remains on a bull trajectory into early Q1 in line with supportive seasonality. We see increasing evidence that we may have initiated a multiyear rise on the break above 21,000 on the back of improving fundamentals/growth prospects.Our November 9th call to reduce exposure, we sold most of our tech holdings that had…

We have liked Japan since 2016 with a base long from Nikkei 17,000 and the fresh buy call at 21,020 with the bet that this breakout would force a chase that has worked to plan. Japan remains on a bull trajectory into early Q1 in line with supportive seasonality. We see increasing evidence that we may have initiated a multiyear rise on the break above 21,000 on the back of improving fundamentals/growth prospects.Our November 9th call to reduce exposure, we sold most of our tech holdings that had…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Sector trends are telling a bullish narrative. Cyclical sectors continue to lead, with tech at the helm, and defensive segments still exhibit lagging relative strength trends. Combined, this relationship is visible in the consumer discretionary/staples ratio, which is breaking out to multi-year highs. In today’s report we highlight the following themes:<ul><li>Auto stocks are breaking out -- buy. Highlighted charts include: Daimler (DAI-DE), Ford (F), Hyundai Motor (005380-KR), Peugeot (UG-FR), Renault (RNO-FR), and Volkswagen (VOW-DE). Increase exposure... see page 4-5</li><li>Energy is bottoming -- buy (reiteration). We highlight a wide selection of actionable names, both small- and large-caps, developed and emerging... see page 6-9</li></ul>

Sector trends are telling a bullish narrative. Cyclical sectors continue to lead, with tech at the helm, and defensive segments still exhibit lagging relative strength trends. Combined, this relationship is visible in the consumer discretionary/staples ratio, which is breaking out to multi-year highs. In today’s report we highlight the following themes:Auto stocks are breaking out -- buy. Highlighted charts include: Daimler (DAI-DE), Ford (F), Hyundai Motor (005380-KR), Peugeot (UG-FR), Renault (RNO-FR), and Volkswagen (VOW-DE). Increase exposure... see page 4-5Energy is bottoming -- buy (reiteration). We highlight a wide selection of actionable names, both small- and large-caps, developed and emerging... see page 6-9

Int'l Equity Strategy: Buy Energy, Global Autos

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Is This Asia’s Biggest Policy Shift in Three-Decades?

‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest...

Michael J. Howell

Asia Chart Levels and Where to Add Risk

Asia bid support is coming through with signs of resilience. This tactical insight outlines S&P pivot levels and the markets that are showing a...

Thomas Schroeder

The Market Sentimentalist - Winter Is Coming: Economic Pathways To World War III

IntroductionHBO’s successful series Game of Thrones has the phrase “Winter is coming” as its key tag line. It is not meant to reference a seasonal...

Amareos

Nikkei Mushroom Part 2 - Buy Back Levels

We have liked Japan since 2016 with a base long from Nikkei 17,000 and the fresh buy call at 21,020 with the bet that this breakout would force a...

Thomas Schroeder

Int'l Equity Strategy: Buy Energy, Global Autos

Sector trends are telling a bullish narrative. Cyclical sectors continue to lead, with tech at the helm, and defensive segments still exhibit...

Vermilion Research