Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Nearly half of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group</a>'s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group</a> has outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
Nearly half of Softbank Group's float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.

Softbank Group has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.


Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap

<ul>
<li>After the recent rally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebara-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4728:1" rel="noopener">Ebara Corp (6361 JP)</a>'s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebara-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4728:1" rel="noopener">Ebara Corp (6361 JP)</a> has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.</li>
<li>There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebara-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4728:1" rel="noopener">Ebara Corp (6361 JP)</a> since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.</li>
</ul>


After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)'s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.

Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.


Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Equity Derivatives

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

<ul>
<li>Amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, a strategic approach to volatility across key global indices is being considered, aiming to capitalize on anticipated market shifts.</li>
<li>The evolving political landscape in Japan, alongside a unique monetary policy trajectory, presents distinct volatility opportunities compared to volatility markets in the US and Europe.</li>
<li>Part I explores a multi-leg volatility strategy, designed to leverage specific market conditions. Part II is a deep dive into VIX, VNKY, VSTOXX trading.</li>
</ul>


Amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, a strategic approach to volatility across key global indices is being considered, aiming to capitalize on anticipated market shifts.
The evolving political landscape in Japan, alongside a unique monetary policy trajectory, presents distinct volatility opportunities compared to volatility markets in the US and Europe.
Part I explores a multi-leg volatility strategy, designed to leverage specific market conditions. Part II is a deep dive into VIX, VNKY, VSTOXX trading.


The Volatility Playbook: Japan Vs. Developed Markets

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Negotiations between the US and China are not going well, to say the least!</li>
<li>We review the short-term outlook for some of the sectors we focus on.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Negotiations between the US and China are not going well, to say the least!
We review the short-term outlook for some of the sectors we focus on.


OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> will report FY 2025 results on Thursday, 9 October 2025. Gain insight into earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and signals from the options market.</li>
<li>
Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven moves between 2–9%, with announcement-day beta vs. the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> more than doubling. Despite illiquidity, options imply a ±4.7% swing — in line with history.</li>
<li>
Portfolio Impact: As an 8% Nikkei 225 heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report FY 2025 results on Thursday, 9 October 2025. Gain insight into earnings-day price history, volatility dynamics, and signals from the options market.

Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven moves between 2–9%, with announcement-day beta vs. the Nikkei 225 more than doubling. Despite illiquidity, options imply a ±4.7% swing — in line with history.

Portfolio Impact: As an 8% Nikkei 225 heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap

The stock price surge has taken Softbank Group's weight in the NKY to 10.26%. Staying there will mean capping in March, and selling from passive...

Brian Freitas

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

Ebara should be added to a global index in November. The stock has moved higher but still trades cheaper than its peers. There has been increased...

Brian Freitas

The Volatility Playbook: Japan Vs. Developed Markets

A global vol trading approach amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, with a focus on long vol opportunities in...

Jay Cameron

OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the fallout from the recent escalation of the trade war

Rikki Malik

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report tomorrow, Thursday, 9 October 2025, after market close. The stock is up 3.5% from its low last Friday; an...

Gaudenz Schneider

Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap

The stock price surge has taken Softbank Group's weight in the NKY to 10.26%. Staying there will mean capping in March, and selling from passive...

Brian Freitas

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

Ebara should be added to a global index in November. The stock has moved higher but still trades cheaper than its peers. There has been increased...

Brian Freitas

The Volatility Playbook: Japan Vs. Developed Markets

​A global vol trading approach amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, with a focus on long vol opportunities in...

Jay Cameron

OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the fallout from the recent escalation of the trade war

Rikki Malik

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) FY 2025 Results: Markets Expect a 4.7% Price Swing

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will report tomorrow, Thursday, 9 October 2025, after market close. The stock is up 3.5% from its low last Friday; an...

Gaudenz Schneider

A global vol trading approach amidst US-China tariff uncertainties and divergent central bank policies, with a focus on long vol opportunities in...