Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>In the first quarter of 2024, Japan’s economy grew by 0.18% (QoQ).</li><li>This growth is mainly attributed to real fixed capital formation, but also to real private final consumption expenditure to a lesser extent.</li><li>These figures increased by about 2.53% and 0.43% (QoQ) respectively. </li></ul>

In the first quarter of 2024, Japan’s economy grew by 0.18% (QoQ).This growth is mainly attributed to real fixed capital formation, but also to real private final consumption expenditure to a lesser extent.These figures increased by about 2.53% and 0.43% (QoQ) respectively. 

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>China announces a barrage of  fiscal and monetary stimulus plans</li>
<li>New LDP leader and Japan Prime Minister impacts the markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
China announces a barrage of  fiscal and monetary stimulus plans
New LDP leader and Japan Prime Minister impacts the markets


Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The last 2 weeks' upswing in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> does not change our view: it is <strong>WEEKLY overbought</strong> and October is a coin flip according to our seasonal models.</li>
<li>The index <em>could</em> rise further at this point, herd behavior may force investors to pile up into the rally, but our models say rising well past 40k will be hard.</li>
<li>A pullback is not necessarily a great occasion to buy, as already explained in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-the-nikkei-225-s-trend-is-not-looking-good" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a>, the N225's trend does not look good, at the moment.</li>
</ul>


The last 2 weeks' upswing in the Nikkei 225 INDEX does not change our view: it is WEEKLY overbought and October is a coin flip according to our seasonal models.
The index could rise further at this point, herd behavior may force investors to pile up into the rally, but our models say rising well past 40k will be hard.
A pullback is not necessarily a great occasion to buy, as already explained in our previous insight, the N225's trend does not look good, at the moment.


Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Japanese Economy - September 3, 2024

This growth is mainly attributed to real fixed capital formation, but also to real private final consumption expenditure to a lesser extent.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the implications of the China stumulus package and Japan's...

Rikki Malik

EQD | The Nikkei At The Top

The recent Nikkei 225 upswing does not change our recent analysis of the index's trend, plus October will be a coin flip (according to our...

Nico Rosti

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Japanese Economy - September 3, 2024

This growth is mainly attributed to real fixed capital formation, but also to real private final consumption expenditure to a lesser extent.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the implications of the China stumulus package and Japan's...

Rikki Malik

EQD | The Nikkei At The Top

​The recent Nikkei 225 upswing does not change our recent analysis of the index's trend, plus October will be a coin flip (according to our...

Nico Rosti

The recent Nikkei 225 upswing does not change our recent analysis of the index's trend, plus October will be a coin flip (according to our...