Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>We take a look at how some of the markets we focus on reacted to the aftermath of the Federal Reserve Decision.</li>
<li>China is watching key levels on the Shanghai Composite Index</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
We take a look at how some of the markets we focus on reacted to the aftermath of the Federal Reserve Decision.
China is watching key levels on the Shanghai Composite Index


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The JPY is knocking on a key level vs the USD</li>
<li>Uncertainty over Fed interest rate decision could be a catalyst for a reversal</li>
<li>Buy JPY, Gold and Gold miners on any short-term correction</li>
</ul>


The JPY is knocking on a key level vs the USD
Uncertainty over Fed interest rate decision could be a catalyst for a reversal
Buy JPY, Gold and Gold miners on any short-term correction


Tactical Trading -Fed Meeting a Catalyst for Counter-Trend Moves

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Although the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> was rallying strong early in the year, from mid-March the rally started to falter, and after a fake recovery into July, it fell again, lower.</li>
<li>Should the index go lower from last week's Close at 36581.76, the next paragraphs of this insight will indicate what price levels are strong support to buy.</li>
<li>The only doubt we have is that the index's overall trend does not look good. A correction to 33000 (or lower) is a possibility - a negative YEARLY performance.</li>
</ul>


Although the Nikkei 225 INDEX was rallying strong early in the year, from mid-March the rally started to falter, and after a fake recovery into July, it fell again, lower.
Should the index go lower from last week's Close at 36581.76, the next paragraphs of this insight will indicate what price levels are strong support to buy.
The only doubt we have is that the index's overall trend does not look good. A correction to 33000 (or lower) is a possibility - a negative YEARLY performance.


EQD | The Nikkei 225's Trend Is Not Looking Good

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

We specialize in consulting both individual and institutional clients, providing them with effective financial solutions that are tailored to their specific needs.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).</li><li>However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.</li><li>As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Overview #9 Fallout from the Fed

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the usual suspects of Gold, the JPY, Topix and the Hang...

Rikki Malik

Tactical Trading -Fed Meeting a Catalyst for Counter-Trend Moves

JPY, Gold, and Gold miners have the potential for a short-term reversal due to uncertainty over extent of Fed interest rate decision.

Rikki Malik

EQD | The Nikkei 225's Trend Is Not Looking Good

The Nikkei 225 INDEX rally for the year 2024 is faltering, there is potential for further correction. Short-term, this week, look at the provided...

Nico Rosti

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Since the beginning of the year to end-August, the VNI increased 13.6%, outperforming regional markets such as the Philippines’ PCOMP (+6.9%),...

Vietcap

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Overview #9 Fallout from the Fed

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the usual suspects of Gold, the JPY, Topix and the Hang...

Rikki Malik

Tactical Trading -Fed Meeting a Catalyst for Counter-Trend Moves

JPY, Gold, and Gold miners have the potential for a short-term reversal due to uncertainty over extent of Fed interest rate decision.

Rikki Malik

EQD | The Nikkei 225's Trend Is Not Looking Good

The ​Nikkei 225 INDEX rally for the year 2024 is faltering, there is potential for further correction. Short-term, this week, look at the provided...

Nico Rosti

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Since the beginning of the year to end-August, the VNI increased 13.6%, outperforming regional markets such as the Philippines’ PCOMP (+6.9%),...

Vietcap

The Nikkei 225 INDEX rally for the year 2024 is faltering, there is potential for further correction. Short-term, this week, look at the provided...