Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> is about to close up for the 3rd consecutive week (CC=+3), it's towards the Q3 resistance level at 33984: it's short-term overbought.</li>
<li>There is a good chance that the index will pull back in the next 1-3 weeks, at the moment it looks like the rally has "stalled".</li>
<li>The pullback may be an opportunity to buy again, and ride a rebound to previous highs, we will discuss LONG levels in a separated insight.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is about to close up for the 3rd consecutive week (CC=+3), it's towards the Q3 resistance level at 33984: it's short-term overbought.
There is a good chance that the index will pull back in the next 1-3 weeks, at the moment it looks like the rally has "stalled".
The pullback may be an opportunity to buy again, and ride a rebound to previous highs, we will discuss LONG levels in a separated insight.


EQD | The Nikkei Will Pullback Within 1-3 Weeks

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Inflation across the US, UK and Japan slowed sharply on the back of declining goods prices.</li>
<li>Rapidly cooling inflation brings into focus the diverging central bank policies - BoJ remains ultra-loose, Fed has turned dovish, while BoE continues to remain hawkish.</li>
<li>Personal spending in the US remains strong, providing upside to economic growth in Q4, but also risk of higher inflation.</li>
</ul>


Inflation across the US, UK and Japan slowed sharply on the back of declining goods prices.
Rapidly cooling inflation brings into focus the diverging central bank policies - BoJ remains ultra-loose, Fed has turned dovish, while BoE continues to remain hawkish.
Personal spending in the US remains strong, providing upside to economic growth in Q4, but also risk of higher inflation.


Mint Macro Roundup: Inflation Cools in US, UK, & Japan Accentuating Central Bank Policy Divergence

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be a US$4.6bn secondary placement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> before year-end as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-seiki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin Corp (7259 JP)</a> unwind cross-holdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> was down 4.85% yesterday (and even more intra-day) and the stock could remain under pressure for the next few weeks.</li>
<li>There will be limited passive buying in conjunction with the secondary offering and active investors will need to buy a lot of stock.</li>
</ul>


There could be a US$4.6bn secondary placement in Denso Corp (6902 JP) before year-end as Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Aisin Corp (7259 JP) unwind cross-holdings.

Denso Corp (6902 JP) was down 4.85% yesterday (and even more intra-day) and the stock could remain under pressure for the next few weeks.
There will be limited passive buying in conjunction with the secondary offering and active investors will need to buy a lot of stock.


Denso Corp (6902 JP): Potential US$4.6bn Placement & Limited Passive Buying

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

EQD | The Nikkei Will Pullback Within 1-3 Weeks

The Nikkei 225 is overbought and likely to pull back soon, but this could present a buying opportunity for a rebound to previous highs.

Nico Rosti

Mint Macro Roundup: Inflation Cools in US, UK, & Japan Accentuating Central Bank Policy Divergence

Inflation falls sharply in the US, UK and Japan. With inflation on the decline, central banks faced with navigating diverging economic outlooks....

Mint Finance

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Denso Corp (6902 JP): Potential US$4.6bn Placement & Limited Passive Buying

The Denso Corp block is likely to be priced today. The stock is down 4.7% since the news of the placement and there could be some more downside...

Brian Freitas

EQD | The Nikkei Will Pullback Within 1-3 Weeks

​The Nikkei 225 is overbought and likely to pull back soon, but this could present a buying opportunity for a rebound to previous highs.

Nico Rosti

Mint Macro Roundup: Inflation Cools in US, UK, & Japan Accentuating Central Bank Policy Divergence

Inflation falls sharply in the US, UK and Japan. With inflation on the decline, central banks faced with navigating diverging economic outlooks....

Mint Finance

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Denso Corp (6902 JP): Potential US$4.6bn Placement & Limited Passive Buying

The Denso Corp block is likely to be priced today. The stock is down 4.7% since the news of the placement and there could be some more downside...

Brian Freitas

The Nikkei 225 is overbought and likely to pull back soon, but this could present a buying opportunity for a rebound to previous highs.