Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Both Nikkei and USD/JPY re-tested levels last seen in early August, with Nikkei implied vols surging.</li>
<li>Beyond tariffs, we explore what may become the dominant driver of market movements in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>Skew steepened materially; we examine how open interest at current spot levels could shape the spot-vol relationship going forward.</li>
</ul>


Both Nikkei and USD/JPY re-tested levels last seen in early August, with Nikkei implied vols surging.
Beyond tariffs, we explore what may become the dominant driver of market movements in the weeks ahead.
Skew steepened materially; we examine how open interest at current spot levels could shape the spot-vol relationship going forward.


Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.</li>
<li>Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.</li>
<li>The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.</li>
</ul>


From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.
Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the Nikkei 225 Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.
The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.


Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

<ul><li>The Nikkei 225 dividend curve collapsed on the back of the Equities sell off.</li><li>Average volumes mostly in 2025 and 2016 dividend futures with interest in term structure trades. 2025/2026 term structure is sharply down from 2 to -15.7.</li><li>Nikkei 225 dividend yield is up at 2.20%.</li></ul>

The Nikkei 225 dividend curve collapsed on the back of the Equities sell off.Average volumes mostly in 2025 and 2016 dividend futures with interest in term structure trades. 2025/2026 term structure is sharply down from 2 to -15.7.Nikkei 225 dividend yield is up at 2.20%.

Nikkei Dividends Update (Mar 28th – Apr 4th)

<ul><li>1M Implied volatility spiked 13.23 points to 35.6 as the Nikkei 225 index collapsed 9%.</li><li>High correlation to USDJPY is remaining elevated.</li><li>Nikkei 225 among the highest implied volatility globally with VIX.</li></ul>

1M Implied volatility spiked 13.23 points to 35.6 as the Nikkei 225 index collapsed 9%.High correlation to USDJPY is remaining elevated.Nikkei 225 among the highest implied volatility globally with VIX.

Nikkei Volatility Update (Mar 28th – Apr 4th)

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%. </li>
<li>
US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.</li>
<li>
Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.</li>
</ul>



Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%. 

US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.


Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold

Nikkei and USD/JPY re-test August levels, with implied vols surging. Market movements may be driven by factors beyond tariffs, as open interest at...

John Ley

Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

The Nikkei 225 staged a strong rebound Tuesday, but tariff risks persist. This insight outlines key price targets to position SHORT (or cover LONG)...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei Dividends Update (Mar 28th – Apr 4th)

The Nikkei 225 dividend curve collapsed on the back of the Equities sell off. Average volumes mostly in 2025 and 2016 dividend futures with interest

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Nikkei Volatility Update (Mar 28th – Apr 4th)

1M Implied volatility spiked 13.23 points to 35.6 as the Nikkei 225 index collapsed 9%. High correlation to USDJPY is remaining elevated.

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold

​Nikkei and USD/JPY re-test August levels, with implied vols surging. Market movements may be driven by factors beyond tariffs, as open interest at...

John Ley

Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

The Nikkei 225 staged a strong rebound Tuesday, but tariff risks persist. This insight outlines key price targets to position SHORT (or cover LONG)...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei Dividends Update (Mar 28th – Apr 4th)

The Nikkei 225 dividend curve collapsed on the back of the Equities sell off. Average volumes mostly in 2025 and 2016 dividend futures with interest

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Nikkei Volatility Update (Mar 28th – Apr 4th)

1M Implied volatility spiked 13.23 points to 35.6 as the Nikkei 225 index collapsed 9%. High correlation to USDJPY is remaining elevated.

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

​Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei and USD/JPY re-test August levels, with implied vols surging. Market movements may be driven by factors beyond tariffs, as open interest at...

Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...