Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)
NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !


Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX +1.1% rebounds on Tech and Consumer led rally post strong housing, consumer confidence numbers; AI led names back strong after recent profit taking; China Primier says more stimulus</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.1;  Speculation grows on MoF Yen intervention as Japan appoints official who led last years intervention; Nintendo Family Office prevails over Toyo Construction</li>
<li>NUGGET. KEPCO(9503) formed a 50-50 JV with US DataCenter specialist CyrusOne. Will look to get 900MW over then next 10 years.  Could be significant future earnings driver for KEPCO.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX +1.1% rebounds on Tech and Consumer led rally post strong housing, consumer confidence numbers; AI led names back strong after recent profit taking; China Primier says more stimulus
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.1;  Speculation grows on MoF Yen intervention as Japan appoints official who led last years intervention; Nintendo Family Office prevails over Toyo Construction
NUGGET. KEPCO(9503) formed a 50-50 JV with US DataCenter specialist CyrusOne. Will look to get 900MW over then next 10 years.  Could be significant future earnings driver for KEPCO.


Ohayo Japan|SPX Rebounds on Raft of Good News; NUGGET: KEPCO(9503)-Nuke Restarts, Next Datacenters

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX Closed +0.1% on Friday/WoW +0.4% confirming Bull Market; Fed Decision this week - Market See Pause; TESLA +4.1% Seals Deal with GM on its Super Chargers</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash;  Japan Continues to focus on AGMs; Record number Proposals submitted to 90 companies; Buybacks to hit record in 2023 say SMBC Nikko</li>
<li>NUGGET. Kyocera: ISS  recommended AGM vote doomed but there is good news...</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX Closed +0.1% on Friday/WoW +0.4% confirming Bull Market; Fed Decision this week - Market See Pause; TESLA +4.1% Seals Deal with GM on its Super Chargers
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash;  Japan Continues to focus on AGMs; Record number Proposals submitted to 90 companies; Buybacks to hit record in 2023 say SMBC Nikko
NUGGET. Kyocera: ISS  recommended AGM vote doomed but there is good news...


Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again; Fed Pause/Hike? NUGGET: Kyocera ISS Recommended Vote Doomed, But...

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 7th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,619m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fujikura, Furukawa Electric, Fujifilm, Nitto Boseki.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 7th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,619m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fujikura, Furukawa Electric, Fujifilm, Nitto Boseki.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 7th): Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank, Toyota Motor

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

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Nintendo (7974 JP)

Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

US back to Declines as Feb Minutes indicate Hikes ahead; NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7; RENGO confirms largest wage Hike in 3 decades - but...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|SPX Rebounds on Raft of Good News; NUGGET: KEPCO(9503)-Nuke Restarts, Next Datacenters

US stocks rebound on strong Macro; NKY Futs +0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.1; Speculation grows on MoF Yen intervention; Nintendo Family Office...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan|SPX Up Again; Fed Pause/Hike? NUGGET: Kyocera ISS Recommended Vote Doomed, But...

SPX Bull mkt continues ahed of US CPI and Fed; NKY Futs flat vs Cash; Japan Continues to focus on AGMs; Record number of Proposals to 90 companies

Mark Chadwick

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 7th): Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank, Toyota Motor

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Tokyo Electron (8035...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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