Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Equities down again as Bostic, Kaskari call for higher rates; US10 Yr touches 4%; China Drives Energy and Materials Bid; Awaiting TESLA IR Day (as we write)</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 136.2 flat; Japan caught btw US rate hike Narrative vs China Recovery;  JP firms to hire more; ARM listing: UK loses to US</li>
<li>NUGGET.  As Tesla's Investor day in Focus;  Time to Refocus on their premier US battery supplier Panasonic, and the MASSIVE impact that IRA will have on earnings</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Equities down again as Bostic, Kaskari call for higher rates; US10 Yr touches 4%; China Drives Energy and Materials Bid; Awaiting TESLA IR Day (as we write)
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 136.2 flat; Japan caught btw US rate hike Narrative vs China Recovery;  JP firms to hire more; ARM listing: UK loses to US
NUGGET.  As Tesla's Investor day in Focus;  Time to Refocus on their premier US battery supplier Panasonic, and the MASSIVE impact that IRA will have on earnings


Good Morning Japan |Down as Fed Hawks Soar; China Drives Resources; Tesla IR Day; NUGGET: Panasonic

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).</li>
<li>The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).
The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX resumes rally as Powell Speech affirms 5% Peak rates;   Beta dominates as Energy and Tech lead; Oil rebound as EIA sees higher Oil +  Saudis lift prices</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.1% (flat) vs Cash;  Inbound headwinds as China excludes Japan from Group tours;  Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo/Switch - its Over!</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. Nintendo - Game Over. Is our view.  The Switch is getting old and we are past the peak..</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX resumes rally as Powell Speech affirms 5% Peak rates;   Beta dominates as Energy and Tech lead; Oil rebound as EIA sees higher Oil +  Saudis lift prices
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.1% (flat) vs Cash;  Inbound headwinds as China excludes Japan from Group tours;  Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo/Switch - its Over!
DAILY NUGGETS. Nintendo - Game Over. Is our view.  The Switch is getting old and we are past the peak..


Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell - Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally as Tech rebounds;  Dovish talk from 2 Fed Members;  Google joins the fray slashing 12,000 staff; US Banks not far behind.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 129.6;  CORE Inflation hits 4%;  Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy exit;  Japan courts global elite grads; Population declines in 2022</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET.  Change of Direction with new BOJ Leadership? Ha, policy direction has already been decided, and whoever the Govt selects will just continue where Kuroda left off. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally as Tech rebounds;  Dovish talk from 2 Fed Members;  Google joins the fray slashing 12,000 staff; US Banks not far behind.
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 129.6;  CORE Inflation hits 4%;  Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy exit;  Japan courts global elite grads; Population declines in 2022
DAILY NUGGET.  Change of Direction with new BOJ Leadership? Ha, policy direction has already been decided, and whoever the Govt selects will just continue where Kuroda left off. 


Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; "Too Early for BOJ Exit"

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 31st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD26,908m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nintendo, Tokyo Electron, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust, Mizuho Financial, Disco, Toyota Motor, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 31st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD26,908m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nintendo, Tokyo Electron, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust, Mizuho Financial, Disco, Toyota Motor, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 31st): Kioxia, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nintendo, Disco

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

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Nintendo (7974 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Down as Fed Hawks Soar; China Drives Resources; Tesla IR Day; NUGGET: Panasonic

US down again as US10 Yield touch 4%; Japan caught btw US rate hike Narrative vs China Recovery; JP firms to hire more; ARM listing: UK loses to...

Mark Chadwick

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn)....

Brian Freitas

Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell - Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan

NKY indicated flate; Inbound headwinds as China exludes Japan from Group tours; Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; "Too Early for BOJ Exit"

SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally. NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; JP CORE Inflation hits 4%; Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy...

Mark Chadwick

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 31st): Kioxia, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nintendo, Disco

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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